We are now just 23 days from the start of MLB’s annual winter meetings, and it’s during this window that trade talks and free agent negotiations will be held in meaningful ways via texts and phone calls. A significant amount of the initial discussions for eventual deals took place during the GM Meetings in Las Vegas this past week. Although there weren’t any big trades or free-agent signings during the meetings, it appears that it’s going to be an aggressive hot stove season despite the cloud of an expiring collective bargaining agreement next winter. Most clubs — though not all — are preparing to act as “business as usual,” according to league sources.
I texted with several GMs during the course of the week and here’s some of what went on during the league’s first face-to-face meetings of the offseason.
What the future might hold for Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal
One thing that came out of the GM meetings was the strong statement from the Pirates that they are definitely going to hold on to Paul Skenes for the 2026 season, so we’ll table those trade talks until next offseason. There was a report this week that Skenes had made it known he prefers to be traded to the Yankees at some point, but he denied that rumor at his Cy Young Award press conference.
The Tigers have told teams that they are not expecting to trade Tarik Skubal this offseason, but the main difference between their position and the one taken by the Pirates vis-à-vis Skenes is that the Tigers will listen to offers for Skubal. Once they get that overwhelming offer — which they will — they’ll likely have no choice but to trade him.
The Tigers have no chance of signing Skubal to a long-term extension this winter unless their next proposal is an offer that would make him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB, and not by a little but by a lot. It’s unlikely they make that offer. Waiting until the July trade deadline to deal Skubal would be foolish because, in all likelihood, the Tigers will be in the postseason race and the return would probably be less than what they’d get this winter.
Expect the big-market teams with strong farm systems and the financial wherewithal to sign Skubal long-term to make their interest known, teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Giants and, yes, the Dodgers.
Free agent closers like Edwin Díaz are generating plenty of interest. (Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
The market for closers is active
Teams like the Braves, Orioles, Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Tigers, Rangers and Reds were actively involved in discussions for closers, along with the Yankees from a distance, while the Blue Jays are pushing for help in the back end of their bullpen, according to The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon. As reported in The Athletic, the Orioles have room to spend this offseason and could also factor heavily in the closer market.
The free-agent bullpen market is strong this year with Edwin Díaz, Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks and Devin Williams leading the way. This group could create a record bidding war and it will be fun to monitor.
Kyle Tucker’s contract and potential fits
Free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker is expected to get the biggest contract this offseason, but interestingly, teams have varying outlooks on what his contract should look like. Teams value Tucker anywhere between $300-$450 million, depending on contract length, with some clubs having more interest in exploring shorter-term deals with extremely high AAVs.
Tucker fits the best with teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Royals and Blue Jays. I also think the Giants and Phillies would be great fits, but it sounds like the Giants are directing their money toward pitching and the Phillies are trying to retain their own free agents before looking at Tucker.
The markets for starting pitching, catching and Murakami, plus more notes
The starting pitching market has a lot of teams looking at the top free agents, with the Braves, Mets, Padres, Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Yankees and Angels leading the way. This year’s top group of free-agent starters is led by Framber Valdez, who actually attended the GM Meetings in person to meet with interested clubs. Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai, Zac Gallen and Michael King are the other big names.
The trade market for starters could be slower to develop. Teams are guarding their top prospects closely, so pitchers available via trades like the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta, the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, the Mets’ Kodai Senga and the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray may not be traded until after many of the free-agent starters find new homes.
• I find the catching market interesting as the Nationals have joined the Rays, Padres, Astros, Brewers and Rangers in making calls to improve their depth at the position. The teams getting the most calls and texts about catchers are the Orioles (on Adley Rutschman), the Royals (on prospect Blake Mitchell), the White Sox (on Edgar Quero) and the Mariners (on prospect Harry Ford).
Could Steven Kwan be on the move? (Daniel Bartel / Getty Images)
• Some other big names are being dangled on the trade market. The Red Sox continue to listen to offers for outfielder Jarren Duran and will move him for the right corner infielder or starting pitcher. The Guardians are open to moving outfielder Steven Kwan for more power and a better option for centerfield. Intending to add controllable young starting pitching, the Cardinals hope to trade veterans Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado this winter, though they’ll need to convince each of them to waive their no-trade clauses.
• Although Trent Grisham had the best offensive year of his career, other teams were still perplexed that the Yankees gave him the Qualifying Offer (worth $22.025 million). Grisham was below-average defensively based on most metrics and the eyeball test, and despite hitting 34 homers, he only had nine doubles and one triple in 581 plate appearances. He has until Tuesday to accept or reject the offer.
If Grisham accepts the offer, that could take the Yankees out of either the Tucker or the Cody Bellinger bidding wars. I thought they’d use that money for either Tucker or Bellinger, an upgrade at third base, or, most importantly, more help for their pitching staff. It sounds like a reunion with former Yankees starter Michael King, who was traded in the Juan Soto swap, is a real possibility.
• Most of the AL East teams are preparing to spend significantly this offseason, with the exception of the Rays. Can’t we just move them to the AL Central?
• The Mariners have made it clear that first base is their top priority this offseason and re-signing Josh Naylor is their top choice to check that box, but they are prepared to pivot if that doesn’t work out.
• The Munetaka Murakami market is going to be fascinating. The Japanese corner infielder is being posted this winter and MLB teams have been following his career closely for many years. He has plus power, but there have been concerns about his contact rates and his defense at third. Nonetheless, he’s expected to garner a lot of interest.
The Mariners seem like the most logical fit for Murakami at either infield corner, although the Yankees would be a good match, too, if they’re not leery of his defense and his swing-and-miss in the zone. Imagine how many homers he’d hit at Yankee Stadium.
The other team that could be a sleeper on Murakami is the Rockies, led by new president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta, because his power would be especially impactful at that altitude, given the light air and the lack of movement on breaking balls at Coors Field, which could help minimize his swing-and-miss issues.
Put your seat belts on, everyone. The next month is going to be a blast.