With the November international break pausing the action, it feels like an ideal time to explore the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each team from both an attacking and defensive perspective.
We will also examine the leading players for expected goal involvement (xGI), in order to gain a more accurate understanding of who is actively contributing in the final-third.
TEAMSOPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
Chelsea top the table for xG over the last six matches, primarily due to their offensive displays against Tottenham Hotspur and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Enzo Maresca’s men generated nearly 7.0 xG in those encounters, which included 12 Opta-defined ‘big chances’. The team should be boosted soon by the return of Cole Palmer (£10.3m) from a groin injury, too.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have the second-best attack and the best defence in our evaluation period, having won the xG battle in all six matches.
Crystal Palace impressively rank fourth for xG, even though they were positioned at the bottom of our Fixture Ticker in Gameweeks 6-11:
Elsewhere, Nottingham Forest underperformed their xG to a greater extent than any other team in the last six matches, only finding the net five times from 9.18 xG. But it suggests there is much more to come from Sean Dyche’s team, perhaps in Gameweeks 13-17, when the Tricky Trees have the third-best run according to our ticker (BHA/wol/eve/TOT/ful).
Leeds United sit eighth in the above table; however, they have benefited from the easiest schedule. In the next six Gameweeks, they rank second-bottom for fixture difficulty (AVL/mci/CHE/LIV/bre/CRY).
Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur’s positions are arguably the most surprising of the lot, with their xG far worse than anticipated.
Unai Emery’s troops have been particularly ruthless in front of goal by scoring over six goals more than expected given the chances they’ve had.
Tottenham’s attacking data is not wholly persuasive, either, with the underlying stats in the last six matches indicating that they have been getting results (two wins, two draws and two defeats) without creating much.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC)