A new analysis by the European Central Bank and the University of Mannheim revealed that natural disasters have cost the Bulgarian economy at least €1 billion (about $1.15 billion) in 2025.
What are climate-related economic losses?
Across the globe, many countries are experiencing a rapid decline in GDP due to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, fires, hurricanes, and other disasters. In Bulgaria, the report stated that climate change has “‘eaten up’ 1% of the Bulgarian economy in 2025,” per the Bulgarian National Radio.
In Europe as a whole, €43 billion (nearly $50 billion) have been lost to weather events so far this year.
The BNR noted that these statistics don’t account for the most recent natural disasters, so the numbers are likely to increase before the end of the year. Since the start of 2025, Bulgaria has experienced devastating floods that killed at least three people, several fires, and record heat waves. These events have all contributed to Bulgaria losing GDP equivalent to the budget of a mid-sized city, according to the radio station.
Why is this concerning?
Gennady Kondarev, an energy expert at the Black Sea Energy Research Center, told BNR that drought and heat have cost each Bulgarian approximately €140 (around $161) so far this year, and further losses could be ahead depending on the weather.
“The situation is similar in neighboring Greece. The other most affected countries are Cyprus and Malta,” he added. “Why? Because they are small economies, largely exposed to climate-related risks. Otherwise, in absolute terms, the large economies in Europe suffer even greater losses. Bulgaria is not sufficiently prepared for the growing climate risks – Bulgarian infrastructure is outdated, and the new one is often built without taking climate change into account.”
Kondarev explained that European countries like Bulgaria are seeing more “once in a century” events happening as the planet warms. The erratic weather is also impacting crops, with unexpected cold snaps and heat waves causing major losses and price spikes for certain fruits. The radio station noted that Bulgaria is one of the most vulnerable countries throughout Europe because it’s dependent on agricultural imports and water.
Kondarev noted that adaptation plans should be accelerated, as forecasts indicate that the Bulgarian economy will experience 3-5% GDP losses due to climate change by 2030. If that happens, it could severely hinder economic progress, hurt tourism, and continue to reduce agricultural yields.
While it would require significant investments to prepare the country for worsening weather, failing to take action would be far costlier.
Research by the University of Cambridge climaTRACES Lab and Boston Consulting Group found that if global average surface temperatures increase by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (three degrees Celsius) by 2100, it could reduce cumulative economic output by 15% to 34%. But investing only 1-2% of global GDP by 2100 would keep warming below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (two degrees Celsius), helping the world adapt to most of the impacts.
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