Oklahoma moved up to eighth in the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night, and Notre Dame remained ninth, putting the Fighting Irish in decent shape to control their path to the postseason, but not quite in the clear of being caught from behind.
Ohio State (10-0), Indiana (11-0) and Texas A&M (10-0) remained the top three teams in the ranking for a third straight week. But Oklahoma’s defeat of Alabama rearranged the rest of the top 10.
The Crimson Tide (8-2) dropped six spots to No. 10 while the Sooners (8-2) moved up three spots.
Georgia (9-1) is fourth, followed by Texas Tech (10-1) at five, Ole Miss (10-1) at six and Oregon (9-1) at seven.
The latest rankings put five SEC teams in the top 10, creating a path for all to make the CFP if they win out. None of the teams play each other before the conference title game.
BYU ranks No. 11 and Utah is 12th, putting three Big 12 schools — along with Texas Tech — in the top 12 and giving the conference an opportunity to get multiple teams into the field. Only Big 12 champion Arizona State made the 12-team CFP field last season.
“I am thrilled to see the Big 12 Conference getting the respect it deserves,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said. “I said at Big 12 football media days in July that we would earn it on the field, and we continue to do that.”
The playoff field is comprised of five conference champions and seven at-large selections.
The Fighting Irish (8-2), who reached the national title game against Ohio State last season, easily handled Pitt last weekend and will finish the season against Syracuse (3-7) and Stanford (3-7).
Committee chairman Hunter Yurachek, Arkansas’ athletic director, said the committee debated the order of Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama as much as any group, and noted that the Sooners’ victory over the Tide was among the deciding factors. He also noted that Alabama’s opening loss to Florida State (5-5) is also working against the Tide.
Still, lingering just outside of the top 12 is Miami, which moved up two spots to No. 13.
The Hurricanes, who beat Notre Dame to start the season, remain the highest-ranked ACC team. But they still face a difficult path to reaching the conference championship game and being in a position to make the 12-team field as one of the five highest-ranked league champions.
Yurachek said the difference between Miami and Notre Dame is that each team has lost two games. The Hurricanes have lost to Louisville (7-3) and at SMU (7-3), while the Irish fell to Miami and Texas A&M.
“And so we really haven’t compared those two teams,” Yurachek said of Miami and Notre Dame on ESPN. “They haven’t been in similar comparative pools to date, but Miami is creeping up into that range where they will be compared to Notre Dame if something happens above them.”
The Hurricanes and Irish lost close games. Miami’s losses are by a combined nine points, including an overtime game to SMU. Notre Dame’s two losses were by a total of four points.
“I would say Miami needs to continue to win and then hope some things ahead of them fall their way,” Yurachek said.
The next highest-ranked ACC teams are No. 19 Virginia and No. 16 Georgia Tech, which are in good shape to reach the conference title game.
The committee ranked Tulane 24th, putting the Green Wave of the American Conference in position to be projected as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.
That race seems to be down to the winner of the American, or maybe James Madison (9-1) if it wins out and takes the Sun Belt title.
Rivalry game chaos scenarios
Five historic rivalry games will be played Thanksgiving weekend that have big-time CFP ramifications. Technically, there are more than that. But as much as we love Indiana and Purdue battling for the Old Oaken Bucket, even chaos scenarios have to have some tether to realistic outcomes.
Let’s get a little crazy and sift through the potential fallout of an epic rivalry weekend underdog uprising involving the Mississippi-Mississippi State; Georgia-Georgia Tech; Auburn-Alabama; Michigan-Ohio State and Texas-Texas A&M.
First off, The Athletic’s Austin Mock ran the numbers and determined that the chances of the favorites winning all of these games are only 15 percent. Mock’s projections give the favorites in those games 3.45 wins and the underdogs 1.55 victories.
Game-by-game, it looks like this:
- Egg Bowl: Ole Miss, 78 percent chance of winning
- Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: Georgia, 76 percent
- The Game: Ohio State, 78 percent
- Iron Bowl: Alabama 62, percent
- Lone Star Showdown (nobody actually calls it this): Texas A&M, 51 percent
Week 14
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State. Ole Miss can probably sustain another loss and get in — even to a Mississippi State team with the worst run defense in the SEC — but the Rebels’ resume with one loss means coach Lane Kiffin’s team shouldn’t be a lock.
No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 16 Georgia Tech (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta). Georgia has more cushion to absorb a loss than Ole Miss, including a victory against the Rebels. The Bulldogs also would still have a shot to reach the SEC title game if they lose to their ACC rival. As for Georgia Tech, an upset would be a rocket-fuel boost for the Yellow Jackets’ chances to get an at-large bid. Just don’t lose to Pitt this week.
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 18 Michigan. If Ohio State loses to Michigan for the fifth straight season, it could keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship game and their fans up at night for several days, but at worst, they would still host a playoff game. For Michigan (8-2), it’s hard to envision a scenario where it doesn’t cash another upset of the Buckeyes into a playoff spot at 9-2, but at whose expense?
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn. If Alabama loses the Iron Bowl to a meh Auburn team with an interim coach, Crimson Tide fans are probably going to be more concerned about their own coach than whether the selection committee slighted their team for a second straight season. Bama fans might line up the moving truck to Happy Valley for coach Kalen DeBoer.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas. This is the one game that has CFP consequences on both sides, though you have to squint to see a path for the Longhorns (7-3) even if they win out. There will be lobbying. And it’ll sound something like this: Texas should have played Ohio rather than Ohio State, and it would have been in. Why should any school schedule marquee nonconference games? (Eye roll). The Aggies are in, but they could cost themselves a spot in the SEC title game and a bye by losing in Austin.
Lastly, looking for the ultimate wackiness: The chances of all the underdogs winning these games are 0.2 percent, according to Mock’s projections.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?