SALT LAKE CITY — Utah added another blowout to their resume with a 55-28 win over Baylor last week. They faced the nation’s passing champ and picked him off twice, with Elijah Davis taking one back 65 yards for a pick six.

Wayshawn Parker ran for 129 yards for his third straight 100+ yard game, but it was their wildcard true freshman quarterback that broke the game open. Byrd Ficklin exploded for touchdowns runs of 74 and 67 yards, and head coach Kyle Whittingham called him their “biggest catalyst.”

The playoff selection committee moved Utah up one spot to No. 12, and they clearly respect their margins of victory.

In the team’s eight wins, Utah has won them all by 25+ points. They look to keep their Big 12 title and playoff hopes alive as they host Kansas State in their first-ever meeting (2 p.m. MST, ESPN2).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Utah 55.4 (23rd of 68 Power 4) | Kansas State 66.1 (11th)
2024 season: Utah 44.9 (48th) | Kansas State 61.3 (20th)
2025 season: Utah 74.6 (10th) | Kansas State 49.4 (42nd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish fourth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They lost twice — 34-10 to Texas Tech and 24-21 to BYU — but their eight wins have been blowouts, with an average yardage margin of +200 per game. Utah has held their spot at No. 10 in Game Grader for a few weeks now.

At Big 12 media days, the coaches picked Kansas State to win the conference, but I disagreed. In my preview magazine, I had Kansas State down at No. 6 in the Big 12, and so far, even that wasn’t low enough. They are 5-5 overall, 4-3 in the Big 12, and almost lost their FCS game. They are No. 42 of 68 Power Four teams in Game Grader.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 12th of 68 Power 4 teams, 28th passing, 3rd rushing
Kansas State defense: 37th of 68 Power 4 teams, 22nd pass defense, 44th rush defense

Utah’s offensive line was named a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award, and it is certainly deserved. They are one of the few lines to place in the top 10 of both my OL run push (No. 2) and pass protection (No. 10).

They have lived up to Whittingham’s preseason praise calling them the best line he’s ever coached. Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu both deserve All-Big 12 and All America hype, and could be high NFL draft picks in April.

The line has helped Parker breakout as the featured back, where he is No. 5 in yards per game in the Big 12 and leads the league in yards per carry among backs with 100+ carries (7.2).

This matchup is all about Utah’s run game. Kansas State has struggled to stop the run, are ranked below average in most metrics, and Utah has been unstoppable on the ground. The mix of Parker, Devon Dampier, and even the wildcard Ficklin, will control the pace of the game and be the difference.

Kansas State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Kansas State offense: 37th of 68 Power 4 teams, 37th passing, 38th rushing
Utah defense: 17th of 68 Power 4 teams, 7th pass defense, 32nd rush defense

At the end of the 2023 season, it was rumored the Kansas State staff picked freshman Avery Johnson over veteran Will Howard. Johnson was handpicked as the 2024 starter and the face of the program, while Howard went to the transfer portal, signed with Ohio State, and led them to a national title win.

Johnson finished ninth in the Big 12 in QB rating last year, but actually regressed here in 2025 down to 10th in QB rating. He is speedy and does bring a threat in the run game (369 yards, 7 TD’s), but no Kansas State fan would have imagined a two-year FBS record of just 12-9.

The offense really struggled last week against the worst Power Four team in Oklahoma State, scoring just 14 points despite being handed five extra possessions from the defense. They were held to just 284 total yards (Oklahoma State allows 36 points per game and 430 yards per game).

Meanwhile, the Utah defense is rounding into form as a top unit. The only slight weakness is their opponent-adjusted rushing defense, but that aligns with a Kansas State’s weakness. Their rushing attack lost its luster when Dylan Edwards was injured, and it really just depends on Johnson scrambles.

Game prediction

Utah has the decisive advantage here on both sides of the ball. Their top five rushing attack will control the line of scrimmage, control the ball and time of possession, and churn out their usual 300 rushing yards.

Kansas State lacks the star power to compete here.

Utah 41 | Kansas State 24