The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts have been two of the more unpredictable teams in the 2025 NFL season. No one really expected either of them to get out to the 8-4 starts they have, nor was the AFC South anticipated to be this competitive down the stretch.
The Colts defied their expectations by jumping out to a 7-1 mark, and then continued to shock the world when they dropped three of their next four games.
The Jaguars have been completely erratic throughout the entire campaign. Not only is their overall record startling, but they do jaw-dropping things in every single outing, both good and bad. Now, the fate of the AFC South division hangs in the balance when these two teams meet head-to-head for the first time this season in Week 14. What can Jacksonville fans expect from their team in this crucial divisional face-off?
It might get ugly in Duval
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) is stopped by Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (23) on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025, during a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
1. Jaguars hold Jonathan Taylor under four yards per carry
The Indianapolis Colts will likely go into this game with plans to lean on their star running back, Jonathan Taylor. Not only has he been their offensive leader throughout the season, but they’ll need even more from him in Week 14 for a couple of different reasons. For one, Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula, one that significantly limited his mobility and effectiveness in the Colts’ 20-16 loss to the Houston Texans last game.
Secondly, there’s supposed to be a steady rain throughout the game on Sunday. Indy will likely want to keep things on the ground as much as it can against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has already racked up 13 interceptions, tied for second in the NFL. However, Defensive Coordinator Anthony Campanile has to be expecting JT to get the ball early and often. To date, the Jaguars have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry. I don’t expect that number to rise after their first meeting with the Colts.
Sep 28, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse (8) forces a fumble by Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) in the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
2. Daniel Jones will fumble
Daniel Jones was having a renaissance season in his first year with the Colts. Then, he turned back into a pumpkin when the schedule got tougher, and he fractured his fibula. In his last four games, he’s fumbled the ball seven times, although the defense has only recovered three of them. Coincidentally, he’s been sacked 13 times in that span.
The Jaguars’ pass rush has been heating up lately. They’ve averaged three sacks per game since their Week 8 bye and have already forced 10 fumbles this year and recovered seven of them. Playing on a bum leg and with a wet ball, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jones put it in the mud again on Sunday. Whether the Jaguars can take possession could make the difference in this game.
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