University of Chicago professor Robert Pape, director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, painted a bleak picture on the path ahead when it comes to President Donald Trump’s unprecedented attack on Venezuela, the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, and Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will occupy the South American country.
Pape spoke to WBEZ host Sasha-Ann Simons on “In the Loop” Monday about the unfolding developments, starting with Saturday’s military strike in Caracas, the country’s capital.
“The [U.S.] control of Venezuela is not going to be good for Venezuela. It’s not going to be good for America, and it’s not going to be good for Chicago,” Pape told Simons.
Here are four major takeaways from WBEZ’s conversation with Pape, an expert on international security affairs and political violence.
1. Trump’s use of force in Venezuela is “extremely dangerous for Chicago”
“Trump is normalizing the use of force, the use of violence, for his particular political goals. He is not hiding it. He’s not sugarcoating it. … It’s with the use of force in Venezuela directly for plunder, to take the oil.
“So what we need to understand is this is extremely dangerous for Chicago. Chicago has essentially been the poster child for him using force against a liberal city. In fact, he’d been very upfront about not liking the leadership of our city and our state, and this is something that we have to be particularly concerned about going forward.”
2. With no obvious short-term path, Trump is sending the U.S. “down a dark road”
“I don’t think we have much of a path forward, certainly not in the next year — maybe after the midterms. But the big picture here is President Trump is sending us down a dark road. I have studied regime change [and] political violence for 30 years. I’ve taught for the U.S. Air Force in detail how these operations unfold. And the fact of the matter is the occupation of Venezuela — and that is what has happened; we now control the government — occupation is not about how many boots are on the ground. It’s who controls the government.”
3. There’s no precedent for seizing Venezuela’s oil assets
“We need to understand this — that we have never had a president cavalierly announce the seizure of another country’s prime assets as the main objective in an operation.”
“This is about putting in power a regime that will give America the oil.”
“It’s also important to say that this is really a delusion, the idea that we will ever control the oil in Venezuela.”
4. Civilian oil contractors will be targets for Venezuelan guerrillas
Trump said U.S. oil companies will run Venezuelan oil assets. “That means civilian contractors have to go in … [They] would be really vulnerable to a handful of snipers shooting at them. That is what those civilian contractors would face if they went in there…
“As we go forward, Venezuela is primed for guerrillas, primed for insurgency. It’s got the mountains of Afghanistan, the jungles of Vietnam. It is perfect for small little groups to get line of sight at these civilian contractors working in these fields … and that’s why those oil companies, you’re already hearing them saying, ‘We’re not going in.’ And the reason is because this is way too dangerous.”
Plus: the new laws that have taken effect in Illinois.
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By Meha Ahmad
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