Oregon’s Medicaid program is running significantly over budget, and state health officials say lawmakers will have to decide how to cover the rising costs by either securing more money or cutting benefits.
Officials with the Oregon Health Authority told lawmakers Tuesday that problem is largely driven by much higher payment rates the agency agreed to make to the regional health plans that manage most Medicaid benefits in Oregon — a change expected to add about $564 million in costs in 2026 alone.
Those health plans — known as coordinated care organizations — include Health Share, Trillium and PacificSource. The state has 16 coordinated care organizations, which receive fixed monthly payments to manage care for about 1.4 million residents enrolled in the Oregon Health Plan, the state’s Medicaid program.
Medicaid is one of Oregon’s largest budget commitments. Lawmakers planned for payments to the health plans to grow about 3.4% a year, but rates for 2026 instead rose by more than 10% on average.
Dave Baden, OHA’s deputy director for policy, told lawmakers during a legislative budget committee hearing that the increase reflects higher-than-expected use of health care — especially behavioral health services — combined with rising costs across hospitals, clinics and providers statewide.
Baden said the higher rates create an immediate budget gap and set up even bigger challenges for 2027, when the state still has to figure out how to pay for the final six months of the biennium.
To soften the blow, OHA is proposing to scale back a program that makes bonus payments to Medicaid health plans — and, in turn, doctors and clinics — for meeting quality goals, such as preventive care, chronic disease management and maternal health outcomes.
OHA leaders told lawmakers that reducing those bonus payments would save about $210 million, including $63 million in state general fund dollars.
But the savings would come with tradeoffs. Baden said about 80% of those quality bonus dollars typically flow through to providers, meaning the cuts would be felt directly by clinics and primary care practices that serve Medicaid patients.
Several lawmakers questioned whether cutting a program meant to improve care and rein in long-term costs made sense at a time when Medicaid spending is rising so quickly.
Baden said the incentive pool is one of the few budget levers the state can legally pull when base Medicaid costs exceed projections.
But even after the bonus cuts, about $354 million in additional Medicaid costs remain on the books for 2026, according to OHA’s figures.
To close that gap, lawmakers would need to approve more state general fund money for Medicaid. Because Medicaid is jointly funded, the federal government matches most state spending — but only after the state puts up its share first.
In Oregon’s case, the state typically pays about 42 cents of every Medicaid dollar, while the federal government covers about 58 cents. OHA estimates that adding roughly $92 million in state money would draw in about $262 million in federal matching dollars.
Alternatively, legislators could consider other tradeoffs, such as cutting non-federally mandated services, like adult dental care and community-based mental health services, slowing program expansions or making further cuts to incentives — options that officials say could affect access to care or the financial stability of providers.
OHA officials told lawmakers that the financial pressures will continue beyond 2026. That’s because the rates today become the baseline for future negotiations with Medicaid insurers.
Officials also said that President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law will add additional challenges for the state.
Oregon health officials are seeking more than $200 million to implement new Medicaid eligibility rules and major technology upgrades to comply with the new law. The state previously estimated that the Big Beautiful Bill could also cost the state up to $12 billion in lost federal Medicaid funding over the next decade, depending on how many people lose coverage.