Well, we did say it was going to be an interesting offseason for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
So far, it’s played out that way, well beyond the expected Mitch Marner departure. Probably the most notable thing about the Leafs’ offseason, however, is just how little they’ve really done. Other than re-signing John Tavares and Matthew Knies to reasonable deals, and trading for Nicolas Roy and Matias Maccelli, everything is basically the same as last season.
Not really a DNA change at this point, other than the fact that the Core Four era is finally over and the Marner distraction has been removed from the equation.
What’s fascinating, too, is just how much cap room the Leafs still have, as we sit here 10 days into free agency. Once they send down Ryan Reaves after training camp, dropping his cap hit to just $200,000, there’s a ton of flexibility, more than most teams that made the postseason last year.
Here’s how I have the roster lined up at the moment, with some caveats below.
That’s a full lineup, one short of the roster max — and that’s without restricted free agent Nick Robertson and prospect Easton Cowan in the mix.
It’s also a lineup that’s not as robust as last year, simply because of the loss of Marner. But there are enough NHL players here, especially if Cowan excels in camp, that they could theoretically enter the season like this, see what they have, and decide how to use their $6 million at that point. That should still be a competitive, playoff-bound team, even if winning the Atlantic feels more unlikely.
There’s risk with that roster. But there’s opportunity, too, and my sense is the front office is far from done.
It just might take a while for more things to get done.
If these are the players they have to work with to start the year, I think prioritizing a third line that can both score and defend has to be at the top of the list. Roy wasn’t an Art Ross candidate in Vegas, but he did have 42 goals and 102 points in 206 games over the past three seasons, the equivalent of 17 goals and 41 points per 82 games, most of which came at even strength while playing decent minutes against decent competition.
Playing him with pure checkers doesn’t make sense. But you also want to be able to use that line in defensive zone starts and against tough competition, so having offence-first wingers such as Max Domi down there doesn’t really fit either.
Something to keep in mind when deciding who plays with Auston Matthews and John Tavares further up the lineup.
I can see the case for either Maccelli or Domi as a pass-first winger on the first line, and either one of those two (or Bobby McMann) with Tavares and William Nylander. But we’re so far from camp, and I’m expecting other moves to be made, that it probably doesn’t make sense to focus too much on line combinations right now.
One player the Leafs have been connected to the past few days is Jack Roslovic, another offence-focused winger who can play a little centre. He scored 22 goals for Carolina last year, but also fell out of favour as the season wore on in part due to his defensive lapses and misplays with the puck, leading to games as a healthy scratch in the playoffs.
I think this one is roughly 50-50 right now, but it sounds like the ball is in the Leafs’ court here, in that he’s interested in the opportunity. And I don’t think it would cost a lot, in terms of dollars or term.
Our player cards had Roslovic’s market value last season at around $2.6 million; if he signs for something in that range — it could even be closer to $2.85 million, accounting for the cap going up — then I could see it making sense as another option to give them offence down the lineup instead of the Steven Lorentz-David Kämpf-Calle Järnkrok-Michael Pezzetta no-goal crew.
Where it could especially make sense is if GM Brad Treliving can subtract someone such as Kämpf’s $2.4 million cap hit and earmark a big chunk of that for Roslovic. That would still leave them with plenty of cap wiggle room to add a bigger difference maker to play with Matthews at some point and still inject a few more goals and playmaking on the third or fourth line.
If you can, at some point, put Maccelli and someone like Roslovic on the third line, for example, you can see a way they get far more scoring from their top nine and attempt to replace some of Marner’s impact down the lineup.
Plus, there’s additional flexibility with this group in that you could trade out Järnkrok and open up closer to $8 million, if you need it. Or to punch a bigger hole for Robertson or Cowan to help give you even more offensive creativity in those depth minutes.
While it feels like the Leafs currently have too much cap room, that isn’t unique if you look around the league. Because of the meagre state of free agency this year, other potential playoff teams such as Winnipeg, Carolina, Minnesota, Utah and Detroit would all rather have more talent and less money to spend than they do right now. But there’s just not a lot out there at the moment.
Being patient in this environment isn’t the worst play, given there will surely be more options shaking loose at some point in the first few months of next season. And the added benefit is your cap space accrues throughout the year, so that $5 million (or whatever it ends up being) can balloon to double or triple that fairly quickly.
To be honest, I find it hard to give Treliving a grade beyond an “incomplete” for the offseason because this still feels like an unfinished puzzle. If he finds a way to land another difference maker up front with all of that extra cash, even if it’s in the middle of the season, it’s going to be a decent grade. If he doesn’t, it all feels like a roll of the dice that they’ll be able to add that player during the season, as teams that get off to poor starts begin selling off assets.
The best thing I can say about their summer so far is that they haven’t really made any major mistakes. The worst thing is they haven’t really taken any big swings yet, and it’s likely going to take a move like that — something creative and outside the box, using their few significant trade assets — to set this team up for success.
But it’s worth noting that the Panthers’ two biggest moves of last season were adding Seth Jones and Brad Marchand, and those more than $13 million in additions were only possible because they had a ton of cap room open up late in the year. Rather than counting on a fortuitous LTIR situation, however, the Leafs can create their own luck by entering the season with some extra space, space that will expand over time and give them real options.
It’s also plausible that they can get a few pleasant surprises from players who are either new to the team (Roy, Maccelli, Cowan and perhaps Roslovic) or had down years last season (Matthews, Domi and Robertson) and have this group generate offence more by committee than they have in the past. If they don’t make their big move before mid-September, it’s going to set up a training camp with a ton of questions to be answered and a lot of open spots for players to battle for. That’s not always a bad thing.
It’s certainly a lot different than the same stale story we’ve had entering the fall in the past. And we’ll likely be on “big-move” watch throughout the year, too.
That’s it for me for a while as I head west to spend time with family and friends. A big thank you to everyone who followed along with our coverage this year, with all of our stories and the podcast.
Stay tuned for some great coverage as we kick off our 10th season (!) on the Leafs beat at The Athletic in 2025-26.
(Photo of Jack Roslovic taking a shot on Joseph Woll: James Guillory / Imagn Images)