As Monday dawned, the mood in financial markets was grim. Oil had suddenly skyrocketed to just shy of $120 a barrel and stock futures were plunging as the war raged in the Middle East. By the end of the day, President Donald Trump had signaled the conflict was nearing an end, oil had retreated to below $90 and the S&P 500 had posted its biggest one-day rally in a month.
“You can’t predict how this stuff is going to go,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates at Amerivet Securities. And yet even for those relieved by the sudden turnaround, a sobering reality remained: Trump’s decision to attack Iran, no matter what he may now declare, has injected a new and potentially long-lasting shock into the global economy at a time when investors were already grappling with an array of forces threatening to upend investor confidence that, until recently, had seemed bulletproof.