PETALING JAYA: Top Glove Corp Bhd is expected to register a robust recovery, buoyed by a strong uptick in orders from the United States that could drive double-digit sales volume growth in the fourth quarter of its financial year ending Aug 31, 2025 (4Q25) analysts say.

The company sees the United States as a key growth engine, with current momentum in exports pointing to a steady climb in market share.

During a recent meeting with Top Glove’s management, Kenanga Research reported a marked improvement in sales to the US , which gained further traction this month and now accounts for 30% of the group’s total volume – a significant jump from 26% in the previous quarter.

The research house added that Top Glove is potentially taking market share away from other glove players in the US market.

“The group is aiming for the United States to account for 40% of group sales volume over the next two years,” Kenanga Research said.

“It is optimistic about strong sequential sales volume growth in 4Q25 due to higher orders from the US market which more than offset a slower Europe,” it added.

Top Glove’s confidence is underpinned by a notable rise in utilisation rates, which hitt 65% as of last month, compared with 61% in 3Q25 and 58% in 2Q25.

The uptick translates to over 3.3 billion pieces of gloves sold per month – up from below three billion in April – which could add as much as RM70mil per quarter, or 2% of revenue.

“Top Glove expects sales volume to grow 15% quarter-on-quarter, driven by US orders and higher utilisation in 4Q25,” Kenanga Research said.

“In fact, utilisation rate last month was 65% compared with 61% in 3Q25,” the research house added.

The group also appears unfazed by recent tariff-related concerns, expressing optimism that demand will remain strong.

“Top Glove feels that there is only so long that customers can hold off buying,” the research house said, adding that order volumes began rebounding over the last two months, with the positive trend expected to persist next month.

On the pricing front, the group highlighted the competitive edge Malaysian producers still hold despite shifting tariff dynamics. US-imposed tariffs of 80% to 130% on Chinese medical gloves for this year and next year have widened the pricing gap in Malaysia’s favour by between 10% and 30%, while Vietnamese and Indonesian gloves, though subject to lower tariffs of 20% and 19%, respectively, have minimal global market share or production capacity to pose a major threat.

“However, a Chinese player may ramp up production in Indonesia due to the tariff differential, which would be a risk, albeit starting at around just 1% of global supply by our checks, and this may be a negative for Malaysia given an improved tariff rate of 19% versus Malaysia’s 25%,” Kenanga Research cautioned.

In terms of average selling prices, Top Glove said it believes Chinese competitors cannot sustain ultra-low pricing seen during from 2022 to 2023.

“The group estimates that break-even prices for Chinese glove makers are at US$14 to US$15 per 1,000 pieces compared with efficient Malaysian producers at US$15 to US$16,” the research house said.

Kenanga Research has maintained its “outperform” call on Top Glove with an unchanged target price of 93 sen, citing the group’s scale and improving utilisation as factors for better margins and competitiveness in the critical US market.