It’s been a fascinating and unusual first month of the 2026 MLB season, as several expected contenders have gotten off to very slow starts, resulting in two managerial firings already. With so many big-market teams struggling, front offices have engaged in trade talks significantly earlier than they have in previous seasons. In fact, Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the media last week that he’s had trade conversations “earlier than I ever have. Other clubs haven’t been doing very well, either. Clubs have called around.”
Even with the Aug. 3 trade deadline three months away, it’s not too early to look at some of the starting pitchers contending teams will be targeting in trade talks between now and then. Keep in mind that several of these pitchers play for teams that could jump back into the postseason race over the next month or so, and therefore won’t be traded. But these are the pitchers that GMs have told me they’ll be keeping their eyes on in case they become available.
As you’d expect, most of this group features either impending free agents or pitchers who only have one or two more years of team control.
Free-agent-to-be Tarik Skubal wasn’t on this list even before it was announced on Monday that he would be undergoing surgery on his pitching arm because I believe Detroit will be in the race all year and will hold onto him even if he returns healthy before Aug. 3.
I also did not include José Soriano because the Angels have three more years of control for him, and if GM Perry Minasian didn’t trade Shohei Ohtani with only two months of control remaining, he’s certainly not going to trade the ace he’s finally developed with three years of team control. Several GMs mentioned Soriano, noting that, if the Angels did decide to deal him, they could get such a haul back that it would improve their timeline for building a contender. With Minasian in the final year of his contract and on the hot seat, however, no one thinks he’ll trade his ace.
With all that in mind, these are the starting pitchers GMs think could be moved if their respective teams fall out of the race by Aug. 3:
Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota TwinsContract status: Free agent after 2027
Ryan left his last start after throwing just nine pitches, but assuming his injury isn’t a long-term one — he resumed throwing on Tuesday — the 29-year-old should be one of the more sought-after trade targets this summer. Since 2022, Ryan has been a reliable top of the rotation presence for the Twins, throwing more than 135 innings in each of the last four seasons. He made his first All-Star team last year and has looked like an All-Star so far this year, even as the Twins have struggled.
Ryan has always thrown a lot of strikes and he’s done an excellent job limiting home runs so far this year. A lot of teams will be monitoring his health status closely the next few weeks.
Freddy Peralta, RHP, New York MetsContract status: Impending free agent
After eight seasons with the Brewers, Peralta, 29, was traded to the Mets this offseason in a deal that was supposed to put New York in position to contend for a World Series title. Nothing has gone according to plan for the Mets thus far, though Peralta hasn’t been the reason for the team’s poor start. While he hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year with Milwaukee, he’s pitched to his career norms and has given the Mets reliable innings every five days.
Peralta’s command isn’t always perfect, but he typically misses bats, has one of the best changeups among starters and his four-seam fastball is very effective. He’s made at least 30 starts in each of the last three seasons.
Sandy Alcantara is back to pitching like he was before his Tommy John surgery and he is a strong clubhouse presence, especially for young pitchers. (Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami MarlinsContract status: Free agent after 2027
Alcantara, 30, won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022 and then had Tommy John surgery in October 2023. He returned for a full season last year, making 31 starts, although his ERA was 5.36. He pitched much better down the stretch last year, and this year looks much more like himself. In addition to his value on the mound, he’s a mentor who makes young pitchers better and has had a huge impact on the Marlins’ young starters, most notably Eury Pérez.
If the Marlins are in the playoff hunt, they’ll probably hold onto him, but if they drop out, I expect them to trade him with only a year remaining of team control (club option) after this season.
Robbie Ray, LHP, San Francisco GiantsContract status: Impending free agent
Ray, 34, is in the final year of his contract, and if the Giants don’t improve dramatically, he could be the first starter dealt this spring or summer. He’s off to an excellent start for the Giants and made 32 starts last season with a 3.65 ERA over 182 1/3 innings. That said, he faded last season after a strong first half, which could make it even more likely that the Giants look to move him sooner rather than later if they continue to struggle.
Trevor Rogers, LHP, Baltimore OriolesContract status: Impending free agent
Rogers, 28, is presently on the injured list with an illness but is also off to a slow start on the bump, going 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA. Last year, he started the season on the IL while rehabbing an offseason knee injury. When he returned, he went 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts, looking like one of the top left-handers in the game during that stretch. His career has featured many peaks and valleys, but if he can get back to last year’s form, and if the Orioles continue to struggle and fall out of postseason contention, playoff hopefuls will monitor him closely since he’s eligible for free agency in the offseason.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Kansas City RoyalsContract status: Signed through 2027 with conditional club option for 2028
Lugo, 36, was the Royals’ best starting pitcher in 2024 when he went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA, making his first All-Star game and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting. Last year, due to injuries, he slumped to 8-7 record with a 4.15 ERA. He’s looked like the 2024 version of himself so far this season. Lugo doesn’t post the high strikeout numbers that many aces do, but he’s in the 99th percentile for Breaking Ball Value, according to Statcast, and he has a very deep arsenal of pitches that he mixes as well as anyone. If the Royals aren’t in the race at the deadline, it’s most likely he’ll be dealt.
Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona DiamondbacksContract status: Impending free agent
Gallen, 30, has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young Award voting three times. Unfortunately for him, he had the worst year of his career last season in what was his free-agent walk year and he didn’t get the offers he expected in free agency. He then returned to Arizona on a one-year, $16.19 million deal, hoping he could turn things around and pitch at his accustomed level. So far, he’s looked more like 2025 Zac Gallen than the Cy Young contender version. However, Gallen has been a reliable workhorse throughout his career, even when he hasn’t been at his most effective. Since he’ll be a free agent again at the end of this year, teams are going to be scouting him closely ahead of the trade deadline.