Since the unexpected passing of future College Football Hall of Fame head coach Mike Leach in 2022, no program has been worse than Mississippi State in the SEC and arguably in all of the Power 5 conferences.
Holding a record of 8-17 and 1-15 in SEC play since then, second-year head coach Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs will need to show some kind of improvement if they have any hope of regaining faith amongst the Mississippi State faithful.
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Mississippi State Football Coaching Staff
Head Coach: Jeff Lebby (2nd season)
Offensive Coordinator: N/A
Co-Defensive Coordinators: Coleman Hutzler and Matt Barnes (2nd seasons)
Roster Construction
Returning Production (11 players): Offense 6 / 5 Defense
247Sports Composite Rank: 28th nationally
247Sports Transfer Rank: 17th nationally
3 Storylines for Mississippi State Football in 2025
How quickly can chemistry be built?
When new coaches are hired, there sometimes isn’t a mass exit until year two. For Mississippi State, that’s exactly what occurred.
They face the loss of 37 outgoing transfers this offseason while bringing in 34. The talent is there; however, as they ranked in the top 20 for transfer rankings, and they were just outside the top 25 of high school recruiting.
Can Shapen stay healthy?
Grad transfer (from Baylor), Blake Shapen, played in just four games last season, going 1-3 and throwing for 974 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. He added 2 touchdowns with his legs but didn’t show much more, carrying it 34 times for 36 yards.
The Bulldogs can’t be worse on defense… Can they?
RockMNation’s Nate Edwards (@NateGEdwards) said it best: “State was bad at everything. Like, the 100 in the country bad. One of the six worst teams in defending the run AND pass, bad.”
Certainly, the additions in the portal and a full offseason under coach Hutzler, plus Barnes’ result in improvement, right?! Right?!
Next-Level Prospect
Player: Isaac Smith, Safety
Draft Grade: Round 4/5
NFL Comp: Quan Martin, Commanders
BILL SPARKS Scouting Report: Isaac Smith is a rangy, instinctive safety with an ideal blend of size (6ft, 205 lbs) and some solid athleticism.
Smith showcases some added versatility as both a deeper safety and an in-the-box defender. He plays with excellent straight-line speed and shows a strong burst in pursuit.
Smith is a willing run supporter and shows some decent tackling angles downhill, regularly finishing tackles with physicality.
In coverage, he demonstrates solid awareness in zone and the speed to recover in man, though he can get grabby against quicker slot receivers.
His ball skills are developing, but his overall game gives him upside as a prospect, especially if you can give him time to develop on the back end of an NFL defense.
Saturday, Sep. 6 – vs Arizona State Sun Devils: The cowbells will be a ring-a-ding-dinging for this ESPN 2 primetime matchup versus a potential top 10 to 15 team in the country.
Saturday, Sep. 27 – vs Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols have won 8 of the last 10 matchups versus Mississippi State; however it’s the Bulldogs’ SEC home opener and their first opportunity to snap a few SEC winless streaks:
Last SEC home win: Nov. 5, 2022
Last SEC win: Oct. 21, 2023
Saturday, Nov. 1 – at Arkansas Razorbacks: They were destroyed by Arkansas last season, 58-25 in Starkville, but Arkansas was the last SEC opponent they beat.
Biggest Question
WHAT IF… Mississippi State goes 0-8 in the SEC?
Before Jeff Lebby was head coach at Mississippi State, Zach Arnett held the job.
He lasted all of 10 games, going 4-6 overall and 1-6 in SEC play.
Would Mississippi State’s AD Zac Selmon pull the trigger that quickly on Jeff Lebby? Or if some progress is shown on the field and another impressive recruiting class comes in, could he turn a blind eye to the 0-16 SEC record?
What Others Are Saying About The Bulldogs
ESPN’s College Football Power Index has Mississippi State ranked 52nd and finishing with a 4.4-7.6 record, good for 15th in the SEC.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs’ over/under win total set at 3.5 wins.
SEC Unfiltered’s Cole Thompson‘s bold prediction talks about the Bulldogs’ run game and says, “…if you want a Lebby offense to work to a tee, there has to be an emphasis on the run.”
The Gridiron Expert predicts a 3-9 overall record and going winless in the SEC yet again.
Worst Case Scenario
3-9, 0-8 in the SEC: Exactly what the Gridiron Expert believes can happen, happens.
Mississippi State goes 3-1 in non-conference, losing to ASU and then drops all eight SEC matchups. The Bulldogs were given an awful schedule (though to be fair, everyone in the SEC was), facing 4 top 10 teams and 4 top 25 teams in ESPN’s FPI.
Best Case Scenario
5-7, 2-6 in the SEC: The winless SEC streaks are snapped!
Mississippi State goes 3-1 in non-conference (still losing to ASU) but catches Tennessee sleeping after the portal chaos from this offseason, plus feeds off the Starkville crowd upsetting Ole Miss and ruining their CFP chances.
Mississippi State Football Record Prediction
As said in the worst/best case scenario, 3-1 just seems like the most likely outcome to Mississippi State’s non-conference matchups, and then somehow Mississippi State steals at least 1 SEC game on their schedule because they really can’t go 0-16 under Lebby, can they?
Final Record Prediction: 4-8, 1-7 in the SEC