It seems like a good problem to have and one that should be getting even better.
The San Diego region has more than enough water and more is on the way. That’s a rarity in the parched West. It sounds great, but the reality is, it’s an increasingly costly burden.
That’s San Diego’s water situation in a nutshell.
Decades ago, regional fear of water shortages spurred an ambitious effort to secure independent supplies by inking a landmark deal for Colorado River water, building a desalination plant, and constructing lots of infrastructure for moving and storing water.
San Diego was lauded as a standout innovator in numerous national news stories.
These days, the focus is less on San Diego’s access to water — the envy of water managers everywhere — but on its astronomical costs. Further, what some of the visionaries didn’t foresee is the region would be stuck with way more water than it needs.
Unloading it has proved a vexing problem. And a lot more is coming with the city of San Diego’s Pure Water recycling project — which could produce the region’s costliest water yet — and other emerging water reuse programs, such as one in East County.
Pure Water has something of a parallel trajectory to the broader regional water plans. The vision for the city plan, in the works for many years, also has run into the reality that it will produce more than needed.
Water officials long ago vastly underestimated the public’s ability to conserve and overestimated population growth. Currently, local water consumers pay some of the highest rates in the country, and the bills are only going to rise.
One glimmer of hope to take the edge off the increases: emerging changes in the byzantine legal and political dynamics of California’s water world, which could open up markets for San Diego water. Oddly enough, some local officials are hoping a prime customer will be their former nemesis, the Los Angeles-based Metropolitan Water District of Southern California.
Part of the guarded optimism stems from a legal settlement between the long-warring Metropolitan and the San Diego County Water Authority, the latter of which the city of San Diego is the largest member.
But the degree of success there may depend on San Diego’s ability to convince Metropolitan that it doesn’t need some of its own long-planned water infrastructure improvements, which include a massive recycling project, Pure Water Southern California. This seems a tall order.
Nick Serrano is deputy chief of staff for Mayor Todd Gloria and chair of the water authority. In an interview, he said there have been some suggestions from San Diego that Metropolitan could scale back the L.A. projects and buy water produced here through desalination and recycling.
“There’s some openness to it,” he said of Metropolitan. He posed a question about Metropolitan’s recycling project: “Do you need the large version?”
The water authority is also looking at other water districts in need throughout the West.
Some San Diego City Council members have become increasingly critical of the water authority for increasing prices and have pointed to the costs of Colorado River water the region gets through an innovative deal with the Imperial (County) Irrigation District.
The water authority recently scaled back planned rate increases from 18 percent to 8.3 percent. The city, meanwhile, is considering a huge spike in water rate increases of 62 percent over four years (along with a 31 percent increase in sewer rates).
Some council members believe the city could pay less by bypassing the water authority and purchasing directly from Metropolitan.
But the Imperial water is cheaper than most water at the moment. Costs are often given by the acre-foot, approximately 326,000 gallons. Those prices can be calculated in various ways, with or without the inclusion of certain treatment or transferring costs.
In 2023, the water authority gave this breakdown for cost differences per acre-foot: about $3,100 from the Carlsbad desalination plant, $1,600 from Metropolitan and $1,495 from Imperial.
How much Pure Water will cost is unclear. In 2019, the city estimated it at $1,700 to $1,900 an acre-foot, in one of its regular “frequently asked questions” releases about the projects. The ultimate cost almost certainly will be more than that, likely by a lot. More recent FAQs don’t include an acre-foot estimate.
The necessity, or lack thereof, of the Pure Water system and the desalination plant could change depending on how ongoing negotiations over the Colorado River are resolved, and whether they ultimately take water away from the Imperial-San Diego transfer, or pretty much leave it alone.
The price of the Pure Water system, which is to start producing at least a small amount of water next year, has been a moving target. Phase 1, near completion, recently has been pegged at $1.2 billion and eventually will deliver 30 million gallons per day.
There is no solid public cost for Phase 2, which is planned to produce 53 million gallons per day. Past estimates for the total project have ranged from $3 billion to several billion.
Combined, the two phases are expected to produce half the city’s water, up from the initial projection that it would cover a third — a stark example of how circumstances can change projections.
“The demands are ever-changing,” Serrano said.
Last year, city officials said they would examine possibly scaling back Phase 2.
“At this point, all parts of the Phase 2 plan are under consideration,” Amy Dorman, the city’s assistant director of public utilities, said in April 2024.
In retrospect, there’s a question about whether any of the Pure Water project was needed at all. There’s been growing talk of scrapping Pure Water Phase 2 altogether.
Serrano threw cold water on that, saying that because of broad agreement with environmental groups and the federal government, “the city of San Diego is legally obligated to complete Phases 1 and 2 of Pure Water.”
San Diego agreed to the water recycling project to avoid an expensive upgrade of the Point Loma sewage treatment plant. A federal waiver from the higher treatment standards depends on the Pure Water project.
Five years ago, a $2 billion price tag was put on the sewage upgrade, though there were suggestions it could cost much more.
Whether that would have been less expensive than whatever Pure Water eventually costs is unknown — and at this point, apparently academic.