Nov. 8, 2025. Iowa State TCU matchup. 0-0. 466. . 0-0. 461. .
Coming off their first ever Big 12 Championship game appearance and 10-win season, the Iowa State Cyclones are faced with an uphill battle. Head coach Matt Campbell has done an excellent job in Ames, making Iowa State nearly an automatic contender year-in and year-out. But with a number of regression factors bearing down on him–namely a 5-1 record in one-score games and losing two all-world receivers–can Iowa State repeat, now with expectations heavy?
The TCU Horned Frogs host Iowa State in November in what could be a monumental Big 12 game. We’ll get to that matchup preview later on. For now, let’s survey the land in Ames and project what you can expect from Iowa State during the 2025 season.
To count down until kickoff, tune in every week with TCU On SI for an extensive preview on every foe the Horned Frogs face this fall.
Iowa State Cyclones wide receiver Jayden Higgins (9) runs with the ball after making a catch around Texas Tech Red Raiders’ defensive back Bralyn Lux (0) during the first quarter in the week-10 NCAA football at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Iowa State began playing football in the 19th Century. Hall of Fame coaches like Earle Bruce and Pop Warner graced the sidelines in Ames and stud NFL running backs like David Montgomery and Breece Hall–plus Super Bowl runner-up QB Brock Purdy–played for the Cyclones in recent memory.
But it wasn’t until 2024 that Iowa State would finally break the 10-win mark. Just a year prior, the Cyclones were supposed to be tanked. Their starting QB and a few other players were busted for gambling and removed from the team. It was up to youngster Rocco Becht to get the offense up and running and, in just two seasons, Becht became a household name in the Big 12.
Iowa State climbed into the top 10 nationally before losing two consecutive games (Texas Tech, at Kansas) due to a slip-up defensively. The 10-2 regular season earned the Cyclones a spot in their first-ever Big 12 Championship game, where they were ultimately crushed by an unstoppable force in Arizona State, 45-19. Campbell’s squad finished the season on a high note, beating Miami in a wild Pop-Tarts Bowl, 42-41.
Becht was helped out by a pair of NFL receivers, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, who both surpassed 1,000 yards.
Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) and running back Carson Hansen (26) in action during the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Arizona State Sun Devils at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
While both 1,000-yard receivers are gone–not necessarily something to be overlooked, but we’ll get to that–Becht returns for his junior season along with leading rusher Carson Hansen (752 yards, 15 total TDs), top TE Gabe Burkle (296 yards, most among returners), and five offensive linemen who started at least six games. Another lineman played in all 13 games. This is a very experienced offensive group that needs to re-fill its pass catching corps.
To do so, Iowa State looked to the transfer portal and brought in Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF). Neither has proven themselves to be a true alpha receiver, though Sowell did accrue 678 yards at 19.9 yards per reception in nine starts for ECU. Eli Green is a promising talent who tranferred in from North Dakota State last season but didn’t get much play behind Noel and Higgins. Though just 5-foot-11, Green features blistering speed and a strong deep threat option for Becht.
The run game improved after a horrendous 2023, but it still lagged far behind the throw game. The offensive line still couldn’t generate much of a push and the effectiveness of Hansen was somewhat due to Iowa State setting up the run via the pass.
Despite the shortcomings on the ground, no one would argue with a top-30 finish nationally in points per drive. With Becht back and talent throughout the skill corps, it’s a difficult proposition to suggest Iowa State’s offense doesn’t finish inside the top 40 again under OC Taylor Mouser.
Oct 12, 2024; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers running back Jahiem White (1) runs the ball and is tackled by Iowa State Cyclones defensive back Jeremiah Cooper (4) during the first quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images
Iowa State could field a defense with you and me as starters and defensive coordinator Jon Heacock would still manage to find a way to a top-25 finish. He’s been with Campbell from the start and has almost exclusively turned in elite defensive seasons, making him one of the nation’s best coordinators. Perhaps his biggest strength is remaining so darn good while also maintaining anonymity; not only would you likely not recognize him standing behind you at Starbucks, his name rarely graces big boards for vacant head coaching positions.
The Cyclones limited big plays for the most part (Arizona State notwithstanding) and controlled the line of scrimmage (Arizona State notwithstanding). Domonique Orange returns up front after earning All-Big 12 honors last season but the other two defensive line spots need replacing. Yale transfer Tamatoa McDonough was an All-Ivy League selection behind 6.5 sacks and rising starter Ike Ezeogu logged 19 tackles in limited action.
The back seven is what makes this defense once again promising. Five starters from last year’s defense return, including All-America honorable mention Jeremiah Cooper (7 PBU, 2 INT). Two linebackers, Caleb Bacon and Will McLaughlin, return off injuries that sidelined the both of them for a majority of the season; McLaughlin even took a late medial redshirt coming off an All-Big 12 2023 season. That linebacking duo is as good as any in the Big 12.
Corner Jontez Williams is an all-conference selection but opposite him could be small-school transfer Tre Bell (Lindenwood) or a number of unproven youngsters. The secondary has some really strong pieces but does lack proven depth.
Iowa State Cyclones football head coach Matt Campbell reacts from the sideline during the fourth quarter against Kansas State Wildcats in the NCAA football at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Perhaps there’s a strong regression to program mean or an adjustment for a 5-1 record in one-score games, but Iowa State projects to be a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team this coming season. For being one of 30 FBS teams to return its head coach, both coordinators, and starting QB–a really good one, at that–that’s a little nonsensical to me.
Should Iowa State be the Big 12 favorite? Certainly not. But with worse preseason conference odds than Kansas? I’m not so sure.
The talent on this roster and throughout the coaching staff necessitates respect and Iowa State has a ceiling of 9-3 and another spot in Arlington. Becht takes care of the football, makes good and accurate decisions, and is capable of producing more capable receivers in Green, Sowell, and Townsend. The defense returns two all-league assets in Bacon and McLaughlin and the secondary is littered with all-league players.
The early part of the Big 12 slate is manageable (Arizona, Cincinnati, Colorado, BYU) and the final two games are winnable (Kansas, at Oklahoma State). There’s tricky stretches to this schedule that we’ll get to below, but this is a team capable of winning the conference or, at the very least, winning another spot in the conference title game.
Sep 28, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) attempts a pass as Houston Cougars defensive lineman Keith Cooper Jr. (5) applies defensive pressure during the first half at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
The two things I alluded to early on come to play here. There’s two very prominant roadblocks for Iowa State in 2025:
- Losing two 1,000-yard NFL receivers is enormous AND
- The early schedule is borderline criminal.
Things kick off in Ireland, where Iowa State plays rival Kansas State in the nation’s best-named rivalry, Farmageddon. Not more than eight points separated these teams the last three years through some ridiculous weather and now, an Ireland game that famously produced whacky nonsense. Iowa State then returns home to Ames–without a bye–to play up-tempo and physical South Dakota. (ISU is just 3-for-13 in covering the spread against FCS competition while South Dakota is 8-for-11 covering the number.) And then Iowa State plays arch rival Iowa in the Cyhawk game. AND THEN it travels to Arkansas State in a weird Power-visits-non-Power game.
Phew.
Just given situation and average team strength, the Cyclones will be lucky to reach their first bye in Week 5 at 4-0. Splitting the stretch at 2-2 seems plausible, too.
Without a strong run game (a two-year running issue now) and down two A+ receivers means this offense is almost certainly due for regression. Coming off the back of 42-41, 31-28, and 38-35 wins, the offense almost can’t afford to take a step back, otherwise last year’s Cyclones are looking like 7-5 over 10-2.
The floor isn’t bowl ineligible, given a reasonable assessment of this team. But 7-5 is possible, justifying Iowa State’s mid-level preseason odds.
Date
Opponent
Aug. 23
vs. Kansas State*
Aug. 30
South Dakota (FCS)
Sept. 6
Iowa
Sept. 13
at Arkansas State
Sept. 20
BYE
Sept. 27
Arizona
Oct. 4
at Cincinnati
Oct. 11
at Colorado
Oct. 18
BYE
Oct. 25
BYU
Nov. 1
Arizona State
Nov. 8
at TCU
Nov. 15
BYE
Nov. 22
Kansas
Nov. 29
at Oklahoma State
*Week 0’s matchup against rival Kansas State plays out in Ireland.
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