FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Football season is finally so close you can almost hear the noise. The work for second-year Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby starts in less than a week and he knows the deal.
After a 2-10 start to his career as a head coach, there’s no way up. How much improvement is required can only be answered by people up the line with the Bulldogs.
With the start of fall camp practices exactly a week away, it’s time for our annual schedule breakdown by quarters.
Roughly 45 years ago I was introduced to looking at the entire season by quarters covering the Dallas Cowboys. Tom Landry explained that was how he did it because you can’t focus on the whole season in training camp.
Besides, it’s summer with sweltering heat and we’ve just about talked everything else to death.
Nobody is projecting State to be anywhere except the bottom of the league in the preseason. While it’s put a damper on a lot of enthusiasm, the coaches and players are probably enjoying being out of the spotlight.
There’s pressure everywhere, whether anybody wants to publicly admit that or not. Lebby is probably fully aware there needs to be improvement and quickly. Fortunately the first quarter of the season offers that opportunity.
Marshall Thundering Herd coach Charles Huff yells during the first quarter against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. / Ben Queen-Imagn Images
at Southern Miss (Aug. 30): Opening the season against a team that had a worse record last year is positive on the surface. The Golden Eagles were 1-11 last year.
They made a coaching change, landing Charles Huff from Marshall. He recruited better players, but how quickly he can put it together on the field is always the biggest question. Everybody has questions every year, but especially in the first game of a tenure with a school.
At least the Bulldogs are in the second year of a rebuild so this one should be a State win to start on a positive note. Quarter 1-0, Season 1-0
Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the first half at Mountain America Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Arizona State (Sept. 6): A lot of the national media folks that aren’t paying close attention will automatically put this down as a Bulldogs’ loss.
In last year’s game in the desert, with was a coming-out party for Sun Devils’ running back Cam Skattabo (262 yards rushing, 38 receiving) on their way to a College Football Playoff appearance.
It was when Lou Holtz was coaching at Arkansas 48 years ago we listened as he explained last year has nothing to do with this year. New faces, new team has turned out to still be true.
Most of the folks around the Bulldogs still talk about that game as one that got away from them. Things went downhill from there.
A lot of people don’t even realize State got down 27-3 in the first half, then out-scored the Sun Devils 20-3 in the second half so there’s some validity to the feeling around State.
This one could ignite a lot of enthusiasm and doesn’t have to be a win to do that but the guess here it will be. Quarter 2-0, Season 2-0
Alcorn State (Sept. 13): The only way this game will be big news is if the Bulldogs, including Bully, land on their face in this one.
If things go well enough in the first two games, this is one that could run up a huge score if Lebby’s offense has some sort of issue.
You can mark this up as the mark to show some progress over last year. Or start ringing fire alarms all over the state, but don’t count on that.
FIRST QUARTER: 3-0, SEASON 3-0
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel disputes a call during the second quarter against the Vanderbilt Commodores at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Northern Illinois (Sept. 20): On the surface, this looks like an easy win until you realize the Huskies have seldom been an easy out. They will be coming off a game against Maryland so they will have at least seen a team that plays in a Power 4 conference.
If the Bulldogs are sitting at 3-0 they can’t afford to get over-confident in this one. Even though it will be in Davis Wade Stadium, nobody should automatically chalk it up as an easy one.
This is a game that could tell us more at the end of the season than in the fourth week. We’ll say it’s a win but probably a humbling one. Quarter 1-0, Season 4-0
Tennessee (Sept. 27): Welcome to SEC reality, but it will be a fourth straight home game.
The Vols may come in with a little more on their resume considering they play Georgia the second week of the season so there will be more known about them.
While most are predicting a huge dropoff for Tennessee this year, I’m not particularly buying into that. They got into the playoffs last year with a favorable schedule, in my opinion.
The biggest problem, though, is I don’t see them taking a huge step back but they had some hiccups last year so anything can happen with them although they may actually be better at quarterback. Nico Iamaleava really wasn’t that impressive.
This will show how far Lebby’s program has progressed but they may have run out of a little gas. Quarter 1-1, Season 4-1
at Texas A&M (Oct. 4): The first SEC road trip is not going to be pleasant. Facing the only other team in the league with remarkably similar uniforms and colors, the Aggies are probably going to be better than a lot of folks think.
Plus it’s a brutal break from the SEC office with State having to play six straight games without a break. They sure won’t get one in College Station in this game against the Aggies who have a talented roster, particularly on the interior on both sides of the ball.
Put this one in the loss column. A&M has quietly put together some really good players. Quarter 1-2, Season 4-2
HALFWAY PROJECTION: Best-case scenario 4-2 and fans talking about a bowl trip. The only problem with getting too confident is it’s hard to predict in July an SEC win the rest of the way.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs against Ohio State Buckeyes cornerback Jordan Hancock (7) and safety Caleb Downs (2) during the second quarter of the College Football Playoff semifinal in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
at Florida (Oct. 18): After finally getting a week off, we’ll see how much the first half of the season took out of the Bulldogs.
The Gators finished as strong as anybody in the country last year and most of the folks who rank these recruiting classes are saying they got significantly better.
Bllly Napier is also having to prove some things to avoid that hot seat last year. Quarter 0-1, Season 4-3
Texas (Oct. 25): It’s a good thing that start was hopefully manageable. The midway point isn’t providing many opportunities for optimism
The Longhorns will be in the middle of a battle for playoff seeding with maybe a quarterback that’s in the thick of the Heisman race. Texas won’t be taking prisoners in Starkville.
Get ready for either a surprising performance (the Longhorns typically lay an egg every year) or a drubbing. Quarter 0-2, Season 4-4
Arkansas (Nov. 1): State fans shouldn’t be too worried about this one on the road. About the only time they are truly a problem crowd in terms of environment is if it’s a Top 10 team or Texas.
The Razorbacks have almost as many questions as the Bulldogs at this point and about as many answers. Considering this was the only game State won in 2023 it can be done and this game is a tossup at this point.
In a game both teams may need desperately, let’s just go with a State win for Lebby’s first SEC win. Quarter 1-2, Season 5-4
Ole Miss Rebels coach Lane Kiffin looks on against the Duke Blue Devils in the fourth quarter during the Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Georgia (Nov. 8): Barring a complete collapse by Georgia, this is a problem game for State. There is a reason Kirby Smart’s team has been at the top of the national picture for a few years and that’s because they have the players.
We’re not even going into a long drawn-out thing trying to even paint this as a game to project even being in consideration. Quarter 0-1, Season 5-5
at Missouri (Nov. 15) :Outside of Arkansas, this is a game where the Bulldogs, at least on paper, have a legitimate shot at pulling off a win.
The Tigers are a team like most other folks, rebuilding a roster and in the summer it’s at least in the possible win column.
Playing this one on the road isn’t exactly like walking into a hostile environment. It may be time for State to go bowling again. Quarter 1-1, Season 6-5
Ole Miss (Nov. 29): Don’t just automatically put this one in either column. Nothing new about that for longtime fans because there have been unexplained performances both ways in the Egg Bowl.
While the Bullldogs could be on an upward trajectory, there’s no idea what Ole Miss brings into this one because they have played unpredictable in recent years with losses that boggle the mind (Kentucky last year). But right now it’s hard to project a Bulldogs’ win.
FINAL PROJECTION: State goes 6-6 with a final quarter of 1-2, but it’s enough to get into a bowl game and even Memphis or Birmingham in December would be an improvement over recent years.