Phoenix officials say the city has spent decades preparing for exactly the kind of Colorado River reductions now being proposed by the federal government – but they argue Arizona is being asked to shoulder an unfair share of the burden.
Their reaction came July 31 after the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its proposed Final Environmental Impact Statement outlining alternatives for managing the Colorado River through 2036 as the Southwest grapples with one of the worst long-term droughts in recorded history.
About 40% of Phoenix’s municipal water supply comes from the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project, while roughly 58% comes from the Salt and Verde river systems and about 2% from groundwater.
The Bureau of Reclamation proposal did not establish final operating rules, but lays the groundwork for water reductions beginning in 2027.
Phoenix officials say they are prepared for further reductions in Colorado River deliveries but oppose a framework they believe disproportionately shifts responsibility to Arizona and the other Lower Basin states while requiring comparatively fewer immediate reductions from Upper Basin states.
“Solving the Colorado River crisis demands a fair, basin-wide solution in which every stakeholder is asked to sacrifice,” Mayor Kate Gallego said July 31 after the federal report was issued, adding:
“Phoenix is prepared to use less Colorado River water, but it is wrong to lay a disproportionate share of the burden on Arizona.”
Gov. Katie Hobbs the same day said the federal proposal “contains unacceptable options that include the federal government forcing Arizona to take the majority of draconian water cutbacks.”
She called on the federal government to accept a compromise proposal put forward by the Lower Basin States – California, Nevada and Arizona – for the next two years.
Hobbs said that compromise “would protect Arizona from massive water cuts, distribute reductions more fairly across the Lower Basin States, and provide stability and protection to the water supply that our communities rely upon.”
In what Hobbs called “one of the largest conservation programs in Colorado River history,” Arizona, California, and Nevada have committed to conserve over 3.2 million acre-feet of water in Lake Mead over two years.
Recently released water accounting from the Bureau of Reclamation shows that the Lower Basin’s Colorado River consumptive use in 2025 was 5.75 million acre-feet – the lowest since 1983. Arizona’s Colorado River use in 2025 was the second lowest since 1992.
While Arizona is prepared to contribute nearly a third of its Colorado River entitlement to the solution after reductions and voluntary conservation, Hobbs noted, previous proposals requesting conservation commitments of 2% reductions to average annual water use in the Upper Basin have been rejected.
Phoenix officials showed City Council how the city could absorb cuts in Colorado River water over the next 10 years, indicating they could not handle a 100% reduction.
(City of Phoenix)
Phoenix preparing for years
Phoenix officials stressed that the federal proposal should not be interpreted as an immediate threat to residents’ drinking water.
The city also reuses reclaimed water for power generation, irrigation and environmental purposes.
But at a City Council hearing April 28, administration officials stressed the city could not absorb a complete loss of Colorado River water in 10 years even though it has taken measures to handle significant reductions.
City leaders say decades of investments have left Phoenix in a far stronger position than many communities facing similar shortages.
Those investments include aggressive conservation programs dating back to the 1980s, nearly 675,000 acre-feet of water stored underground, construction of the city’s drought pipeline, expansion of groundwater recovery wells and development of additional renewable water supplies.
During the April 28 hearing, city water officials said those measures were specifically designed to prepare Phoenix for the type of Colorado River reductions now under consideration.
“The Colorado River is in crisis,” Water Resources Manager Dr. Max Wilson told council members, citing more than two decades of historically low river flows and declining reservoir levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
Wilson said the city has spent years diversifying its water portfolio because officials recognized that Colorado River shortages were becoming increasingly likely.
Calling the levels of the Valley’s major reservoirs “dire,” Wilson said, “Worse, not all of this water is actually physically available, as much of it lies below the deadpool thresholds in each dam.”
Deadpool occurs when the amount of water stored in a reservoir is so low, water can no longer flow downstream or through dams, halting or significantly restricting power generation.
While there is broad agreement that water use throughout the Colorado River Basin must decline, the latest disagreement centers on how those reductions should be shared.
Arizona, California and Nevada jointly submitted a proposal in May calling for 3.2 million acre-feet of conservation through 2028, including annual reductions totaling 1.25 million acre-feet beginning in 2027.
Under that proposal, Arizona would reduce its use by 760,000 acre-feet annually, California by 440,000 acre-feet and Nevada by 50,000 acre-feet.
The Lower Basin states described their proposal as a bridge intended to stabilize the river system while negotiations continue on a longer-term agreement involving all seven basin states.
They also argued that Lower Basin users have already conserved more than 11 million acre-feet since 2003 and warned that additional reductions should be shared more broadly throughout the basin.
Phoenix officials contend the federal framework does not adequately recognize those conservation efforts.
The city said the preferred alternative would require Arizona and other Lower Basin states to shoulder a disproportionate share of additional reductions while requiring less immediate action from Upper Basin states.
On Friday, city officials listed a variety of measures Phoenix has undertaken in recent years to ensure an adequate water supply.
Among them is the construction of three planned advanced water purification facilities that are expected to provide more than 50,000 acre-feet of renewable water annually within the next decade. Construction is underway on the Cave Creek Road facility, and design work has begun for the planned North Gateway facility.
Other measures the city listed include:
Phoenix has stored approximately 700,000 acre-feet of water underground in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, creating “an important reserve for periods of shortage.”
Phoenix currently has approximately 20 operational groundwater wells and expects to bring approximately 10 additional wells online within the next several years.
The City completed the approximately $300 million Drought Pipeline Project, which it said strengthened its ability to move Salt and Verde river water into north Phoenix, where reliance on Colorado River water is heavier.
Beyond expanding water supplies, storing water, and infrastructure investments, “Phoenix has consistently promoted water conservation,” according to an April 28 report to the council. During the council hearing, administration officials said per capita water consumption has dramatically fallen, though Wilson noted, “water conservation certainly is not limitless.”
The City said Friday that final operating guidelines from the Bureau of Reclamation may require drawing on stored water reserves, increasing the use of backup supplies and investing “even more substantially in new water resources and infrastructure.
“Phoenix will also expand conservation programs and ask residents and businesses to use water even more efficiently,” the city said.
“Phoenix has prepared for this moment, and our customers can expect reliable water service,” Water Services Department Director Brandy Kelso said. “But preparation does not mean we can stand still.
“We may need to use some of the water we have stored, accelerate investments in future supplies and work together as a community to reduce demand.”
The absence of significant snowfall left reservoirs depleted, according to this chart City Council was shown on April 28. Since then, water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have dropped even more.
(City of Phoenix)
Negotiations continue
Despite criticizing the federal proposal, Phoenix officials emphasized that the city’s long-term planning places it in a strong position to withstand additional reductions while negotiations continue.
At the April 28 hearing, council members were told the city’s strategy rests on multiple layers of protection.
Officials said those investments were made precisely because they anticipated Colorado River shortages would continue to intensify.
“We’ve been preparing for drought,” Gallego said at the time, noting that Phoenix has spent years storing water underground, improving infrastructure and reducing per-capita water use even as the city’s population has continued to grow.
The Bureau of Reclamation is expected to issue a Record of Decision later this year establishing final operating guidelines for 2027 and 2028.
Hobbs expressed alarm over the potential impact of the Bureau’s plan.
“Arizona provides the agricultural produce, critical minerals, weapons defense systems and cutting-edge semiconductors that feed America, protect America and fuel America’s high-tech economy,” she said. “No other state in the Colorado River basin can say the same.
“We developed the Lower Basin Proposal to increase water resiliency for the region and ensure that no single state was bearing the burden alone. Inequitable, federally imposed cuts to our Colorado River water allocation will be unacceptable to Arizonans, and will put every American at risk.”
Phoenix’s statement on Friday said the city could move to a Stage 2 Water Warning by the end of 2026.
That would include “expanded conservation education, increased financial incentives, additional residential and business water-efficiency consultations, requests to reduce water use” and “potential drought surcharges.
“Residents and businesses will be asked to reduce unnecessary water use by checking for leaks, improving irrigation efficiency, selecting desert-adapted landscaping, and participating in Phoenix Water conservation programs,” the city said.