“Not only are tariff refunds boosting corporate earnings, they are also boosting GDP growth,” Apollo<\/a> Chief Economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Saturday<\/a>. <\/p>\n He estimated that the refund money will contribute about 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed says is tracking toward 4.3%<\/a>. <\/p>\n That represents a steep acceleration from the second quarter’s gain of just 1.5%, which was skewed by high AI-related imports, as well as 2.1% in the first quarter. <\/p>\n In the current quarter, the tariff refunds are combining with other positive factors, such as the ongoing AI spending boom, tax cuts from the the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. <\/p>\n “The bottom line is that the U.S. economy continues to be supported by a growing set of tailwinds,” Slok added. <\/p>\n The surprisingly weak jobs report for July doesn’t signal the economy is losing momentum, he wrote, attributing sharp drops in government payrolls and hospitality employment to quirks in seasonal adjustments. <\/p>\n After backing out those sectors, the economy would’ve added 70,000 jobs, in line with Wall Street’s consensus, instead of losing 23,000 jobs. <\/p>\n In addition, jobless claims have hovered around 200,000 a week, and the number of job openings has been rising over the past six months, Slok pointed out. <\/p>\n “In short, the market is underestimating how strong growth is right now,” he said. “As a result, rates will stay higher for longer.” <\/p>\n The refunds so far represent about 60% of the $166 billion in revenues collected from import taxes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which were\u00a0struck down by the Supreme Court<\/a>\u00a0in February. <\/p>\n<\/a> <\/p>\n