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Mariners at Astros prediction, preview<\/p>\n
The Seattle Mariners enter with a 58-66 record on the season, which slots them in third place in the American League West. They are currently 5.0 games back from the divisional lead and three games back from the final Wild Card seed. Seattle has lost seven of their past nine games entering this matchup. On the season, the Mariners are 46-78 to the run line, and the run total is 61-56-7 to the over\/under.<\/p>\n
Bryan Woo will take the mound for the Mariners, marking his 24th start of the season. The former All-Star enters with an 8-8 record, a 4.15 ERA, a 1.103 WHIP, 13 home runs allowed, and 132 strikeouts tallied across 132.1 innings pitched. He is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings in his previous two starts, which came against the Tigers and the Yankees. Woo has faced off with this Astros lineup in 90 at-bats in his career, limiting them to slash lines of .200\/.250\/.344 with a .594 OPS in these opportunities.<\/p>\n
Looking at their production at the plate, the Mariners are slashing a collective .230\/.309\/.377 with a .685 OPS. Seattle ranks 28th in the league in hits, last in total runs, 16th in home runs, and has tallied the 12th-most strikeouts. Josh Naylor and Cole Young are tied for a team-leading 119 hits on the season, along with a combined 25 home runs and 100 RBI. Randy Arozarena adds 118 hits, 16 home runs, and 52 RBI, while Julio Rodriguez contributes 114 hits, 19 home runs, and 52 RBI of his own. Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, and Victor Robles also play key roles.<\/p>\n
The Houston Astros are off to a 63-61 start to the season, which slots them in the top seed in the American League West. They hold a two-game advantage over the Rangers for this top spot. Houston has also hit some turbulence of late, dropping five of their past nine games. On the season overall, the Astros have gone 63-61 to the run line, and the run total is 66-52-6 to the over\/under. <\/p>\n
Hunter Brown will be on the mound for the Astros tonight. This will be just the 13th start of the season for the former All-Star, and he enters with a 3-2 record, a 3.68 ERA, a 1.272 WHIP, with eight home runs allowed and 67 strikeouts tallied across 63.2 innings pitched. He is coming off back-to-back starts with three earned runs allowed. Brown has faced this Mariners\u2019 lineup in 91 at-bats in his career. He has tallied 26 strikeouts and limited them to 24 hits on slash lines of .264\/.374\/.407 with a .780 OPS. <\/p>\n
At the plate, the Astros are slashing a combined .244\/.319\/.413 with a .732 OPS. Houston ranks 15th in total hits, 10th in runs, third in home runs, and 22nd in strikeouts. Yordan Alvarez has had a stellar season, leading the American League with 142 hits, 36 home runs, and 88 RBI. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have each cracked 104+ hits on the season as well, and combine for 39 home runs and 138 RBI. Cam Smith, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Yainer Diaz each also play notable roles.<\/p>\n
Mariners at Astros pick, best bet<\/p>\n
There is fair reason for optimism for each of these teams as the home stretch of the regular season hits its gear. The bats have been alive for each side in this series, and my lean would be toward the game total going over for the third straight game. <\/p>\n
But I am backing the Astros to protect their home field and get the series win tonight. Bryan Woo is coming off a pair of impressive performances, but has shown some flaws this year. Prior to the back-to-back scoreless outings, Woo conceded five runs in back-to-back games, and he posted a 6.16 ERA across his previous nine outings. He also has a 1-8 record when pitching on the road this season with a 6.22 ERA in these opportunities. Woo leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, but is allowing a 43.5% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 13th percentile.\u00a0<\/p>\n
While the overall offensive metrics aren\u2019t particularly strong on the season, Houston has been heating up at the plate. They are producing a .859 OPS against right-handed pitching at home across the past 30 days, which is the best mark in baseball. Yordan Alvarez has been dominant enough to carry the offense by himself on some nights, and the rest of the roster is beginning to follow his lead. <\/p>\n
It has also been an up-and-down season for Hunter Brown on the mound. But he has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of his 12 outings, and he threw seven scoreless innings against the White Sox four starts ago. <\/p>\n
The Mariners have lost eight consecutive games following a road win, and failed to cover the run line in each of these. In contrast, the Astros have won nine of their last 10 night games following a home loss. Seattle is also 23-39 to the run line when playing on the road this season. <\/p>\n
The Astros are the better team, playing at a higher level, and operating with a sense of urgency given the outlook in the standings. Count on Houston to assert themselves in this matchup and defend their home ballpark tonight. Both teams have had some impressive flashes in this series, but back the Astros to get the job done and pull off the series win as they fight off the Rangers in the standings race. <\/p>\n
Best bet: Astros Moneyline (-118)<\/a><\/p>\n