A bogus opinion poll showing Mayor Karen Bass with a wide lead over City Councilmember Nithya Raman in the L.A. mayor\u2019s race fooled some people \u2014 including the mayor herself apparently. But were any laws broken? <\/p>\n
The survey by a group calling itself Median Strategies was reported on last week by the California Post and others, and the results were touted by Bass\u2019 account<\/a> on X. <\/p>\n But after inquiries by The Times, Median Strategies admitted it was all a fake, claiming it was a \u201csocial experiment to examine how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem.\u201d<\/p>\n A campaign spokesperson for Bass subsequently issued a statement saying that \u201cbad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.\u201d <\/p>\n Quinn Yeargain, a professor of the law of democracy at Michigan State University College of Law, said Median\u2019s intent would be a decisive factor in determining whether any laws were broken. <\/p>\n If the fake poll was truly a social experiment meant to test the poll literacy of media outlets<\/a> and campaigns, Yeargain said, there would likely be nothing to prosecute. <\/p>\n But if the goal was to affect markets \u2014 some have speculated that the aim was to influence prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket to affect the odds on bets in the mayoral race \u2014 then that could be considered fraud, Yeargain said.<\/p>\n \u201cAt a high level what we\u2019re talking about is a lie that is meant to get people to act to their detriment. \u2026 We would classically describe that as fraud,\u201d Yeargain said.<\/p>\n Justin Levitt, a professor of law at Loyola Marymount University, said both the Los Angeles County district attorney\u2019s office and the U.S. Department of Justice would have a potential interest in investigating whether the fake poll was created to affect prediction markets. <\/p>\n \u201cIf I were an investigator, I would look for a pattern of trades in markets like Kalshi and Polymarket,\u201d Levitt said, hastening to add that there is no evidence of that at the moment. <\/p>\n \u201cIf the intent was not financial gain by depriving others, then it\u2019s almost certainly not illegal \u2014 although not everything that is a big problem is illegal,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n In a statement to The Times on Monday, Median Strategies said that \u201cbetting or prediction markets had no connection to the experiment whatsoever.\u201d <\/p>\n