{"id":1013610,"date":"2026-08-20T21:52:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T21:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/1013610\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T21:52:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T21:52:13","slug":"nfl-projection-model-predicts-a-top-heavy-nfc-will-it-come-down-to-rams-vs-seahawks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/1013610\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Projection Model predicts a top-heavy NFC: Will it come down to Rams vs. Seahawks?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of Thursday\u2019s NFL preseason games.<\/a><\/p>\n

My NFL Projection Model doubted the Seattle Seahawks<\/a> last year and looked foolish. And did it learn its lesson? Nope!<\/p>\n

While my model is projecting a far better season for Seattle than the 8.6 wins it forecast last year, it doesn\u2019t believe the reigning Super Bowl champs are going back-to-back.<\/p>\n

Instead, the model is hopping aboard the Los Angeles Rams bandwagon after the Seahawks\u2019 NFC West rival made some major splashes this offseason, trading for reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and star cornerback Trent McDuffie to bolster their defense. Honestly, the model isn\u2019t really slighting Seattle, forecasting the Seahawks to win the second-most games in the NFC and third-most in the NFL.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s not to say it\u2019s a two-horse race in the NFC. The model projects three more teams to finish with 10-plus wins, and a few more to win at least nine. So, while the NFC is not quite as wide-open as the AFC, there are still several teams with a realistic shot at making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

Like we did yesterday for the AFC<\/a>, let\u2019s examine the odds before diving into each division.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

NFC East<\/p>\n

Just two years ago, the Philadelphia Eagles were kings of the NFL after throttling the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl; 18 months later, their hold on the NFC East \u2014 a division they\u2019ve won two years in a row \u2014 feels tenuous. Wide receiver A.J. Brown is gone<\/a>, and while DeVonta Smith can step into his shoes as the offense\u2019s No. 1, not having a pair of star pass catchers could be tough for Jalen Hurts.<\/p>\n

If the Eagles\u2019 quarterback struggles again this season, real questions will be asked about his future as the franchise\u2019s starting quarterback. Perhaps a change at offensive coordinator \u2014 Hurts is used to those by now \u2014 will help the QB return to form. Even though Sean Mannion is young and inexperienced, my model thinks he\u2019ll spark the offense. And even if it doesn\u2019t, the defense has a chance to be elite again, which gives Philly a leg up to win this division for a third straight time.<\/p>\n

The Dallas Cowboys are the NFC\u2019s Cincinnati Bengals. And by that, I mean the model is confident the offense will be great, but the defense is a much bigger question. The Cowboys\u2019 defense improved in the second half of last season after the team traded for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams; they\u2019ve since added pass rushers Rashan Gary (trade), Von Miller (free agency) and Malachi Lawrence (first round of the draft) to form a potentially formidable front alongside Donovan Ezeiruaku. And, of course, the Cowboys spent their other first-round pick on do-it-all defensive back Caleb Downs. If the young players can thrive in a system that revolves around Williams and boost Dallas\u2019 defense, that will give QB Dak Prescott and company a high ceiling.<\/p>\n

The Washington Commanders and New York Giants aren\u2019t hopeless, but the model sees their rosters as significantly weaker than those of the Eagles and Cowboys. Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels and New York\u2019s Jaxson Dart must stay healthy and take the next step for either of these teams to be contenders. Washington added a handful of solid veterans in free agency to bolster the defense, so that will be worth monitoring. As for the Giants, can new head coach John Harbaugh raise this team\u2019s floor<\/a>? If so, how high?<\/p>\n

Could this be the year for the Cowboys?<\/p>\n

Jon Machota and Jourdan Rodrigue<\/p>\n

NFC North<\/p>\n

The model is calling its worst-to-first shot right here. The Detroit Lions finished last in the NFC North last year at 9-8, but my model sees them as the favorites this year, and that\u2019s primarily because of a favorable schedule. Per my model, the Lions play the 29th-easiest schedule in the league, which is expected to give them an extra half win over their rivals.<\/p>\n

The Green Bay Packers are perhaps the toughest team to project this year, with a wide range of possible outcomes. Star pass rusher Micah Parsons will be out for at least the first month of the season. Without him last year, the Packers ranked 28th in EPA per play; they were 15th with him on the field. I like new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, but is there enough for him to work with? A similar question could be asked for coach Matt LaFleur\u2019s offense<\/a>. He\u2019s good, but there are some major issues on that offensive line, and I could see the bottom falling out for this offense if QB Jordan Love lacks adequate protection.<\/p>\n

The NFC North is tricky! The Chicago Bears are another team that\u2019s tough to decipher. All eyes are on Caleb Williams and whether he can improve his down-to-down consistency this season. Yes, the Bears won the division in 2025, but Williams finished outside the top 20 in dropback EPA and dropback success rate. If that doesn\u2019t improve, I have little faith in a defense that\u2019s likely to take a step back after relying heavily on creating turnovers last year.<\/p>\n

The Minnesota Vikings are projected to finish last, but they are getting a big upgrade at quarterback with Kyler Murray. I\u2019m not sure if Murray is a top-10 quarterback, but I\u2019m confident he can play at that level for stretches, even if he ends up being closer to average. That\u2019s still a huge improvement over what they got from their quarterbacks last year. Pair average quarterback play with those receivers and defensive coordinator Brian Flores, and you\u2019re going to find yourself in the playoff hunt more often than not.<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears Camp: Caleb Williams, Coby Bryant’s injury and more<\/p>\n

Robert Mays<\/p>\n

NFC South<\/p>\n

An 8-9 record topped the NFC South last year, and my model forecasts a similar outcome this year, with no team in the division projected to win more than eight games.<\/p>\n

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to win the division, but they\u2019re old, and their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, is unhappy that he hasn\u2019t signed an extension yet. Perhaps Mayfield will use that as motivation and deliver a big season. If he doesn\u2019t, though, maybe he\u2019s not Tampa\u2019s QB next season. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are right behind them, but they just lost their first-round wide receiver Jordyn Tyson to another hamstring injury, so he\u2019s going on the shelf for a bit. New Orleans also lost underrated defensive tackle Bryan Bresee earlier in camp.<\/p>\n

The Atlanta Falcons already look like they\u2019re in trouble at QB<\/a>, as Michael Penix Jr. doesn\u2019t look like he\u2019ll be ready for the start of the season and there are now questions about Tua Tagovailoa\u2019s health for Week 1. Yes, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are an awesome trio of playmakers, but if no one can get them the ball consistently, how much can they do?<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the first-to-worst Carolina Panthers. That\u2019s right, a year after they \u201cconquered\u201d the division at 8-9, my model forecasts a division-worst 6.7 wins for the Panthers in 2026. That\u2019s partially because of a difficult schedule, but mostly because the model isn\u2019t a fan of quarterback Bryce Young, especially if his offensive line isn\u2019t healthy. Remember, they lost left tackle Ikem Ekwonu to a knee injury late last year, and right tackle Taylor Moton is out for an extended period with a blood clot in his lung.<\/p>\n

NFC West<\/p>\n

My model already loved the Rams, so it\u2019s no surprise that after adding Garrett and McDuffie, Los Angeles is projected to be the best team in the NFL. But even being the odds-on favorite this season only gives them a 14 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, as they play in an incredibly tough division and have the league\u2019s third-toughest schedule.<\/p>\n

The Seahawks look to repeat as Super Bowl champions, and if they do, we\u2019ll start having serious conversations about head coach Mike Macdonald and his place in history (the next Bill Belichick?). If he can keep this defense elite after losing some key players in free agency, it will be impressive. My bigger concerns for Seattle, however, come on offense. Former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Seahawks are turning over play-calling duties to an unknown commodity in Brian Fleury. It\u2019s also worth noting that the Seahawks\u2019 offense scuffled down the stretch last year, finishing 19th in EPA per play after Week 10.<\/p>\n

After injuries again gutted the San Francisco 49ers, who still won 12 games in 2025, I\u2019m happy to hop back on the bandwagon. The defense should be much improved by the returns of pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Bosa didn\u2019t play much last year, but with Warner on the field, San Francisco ranked 15th in EPA per play. When Warner was off the field, the 49ers dropped to 27th. If both put together healthy seasons, they\u2019ll elevate the 49ers\u2019 defense to above average (at least), and when you give that to an offensive wizard like Kyle Shanahan, you\u2019ll be playing in the postseason.<\/p>\n

Well, the Arizona Cardinals are by far the worst team in this division, and they play the league\u2019s toughest schedule. And after rookie running back Jeremiyah Love injured an ankle in the preseason, it\u2019s probably time for Cardinals fans to turn their attention to the 2027 NFL Draft<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of Thursday\u2019s NFL preseason games. My NFL Projection Model doubted the Seattle Seahawks…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1013611,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[39],"tags":[7140,6328,8996,531,8998,9000,9001,9006,8812,9004,4716,1232,1105,9005,7149,62,3528,67,132,68,534],"class_list":["post-1013610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-chicago-bears","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-nfl","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-united-states","tag-unitedstates","tag-us","tag-washington-commanders"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/117130058432224468","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1013610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1013610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1013610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1013611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1013610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1013610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1013610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}