{"id":101561,"date":"2025-07-29T08:07:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T08:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/101561\/"},"modified":"2025-07-29T08:07:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T08:07:13","slug":"bitcoin-volatility-hits-70-echoes-2023-lows-will-history-repeat-itself","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/101561\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin volatility hits 70%, echoes 2023 lows: Will history repeat itself?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tKey Takeaways<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain activity dipped, and valuation signals flashed red, but miner stress remains manageable, setting the stage for BTC\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s [BTC]<\/a> quarterly Realized Volatility has dropped to 70%, approaching levels not seen since the September 2023 cycle bottom of 62%, which occurred at $26K.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The current downshift<\/a> suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s market activity has entered a consolidation phase. Historically, such low-volatility environments have often preceded major directional moves.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, this cycle\u2019s volatility peak of 143% is far lower than the 236% seen in 2021, suggesting a broader tempering of extremes.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $118,922, posting a modest 0.59% daily gain.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: X\/Axel Adler Jr<\/a><\/p>\n

Are THESE signs signaling fading interest?<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite price stability, on-chain activity is fading.<\/p>\n

As of press time, Transaction Count plunged to 188,000, while Network Growth dropped to just 72,100\u2014both multi-week lows per Santiment.<\/p>\n

The data reflects declining user participation and a cooldown in new wallet creation.<\/p>\n

Naturally, such slumps tend to surface during sideways markets. But if prolonged, they often signal fading interest\u2014unless reignited by a macro catalyst or demand shock.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Santiment<\/a><\/p>\n

An overheated Bitcoin market?<\/b><\/p>\n

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio has spiked to 412, its highest reading in recent months, which is often interpreted as a sign of potential market overvaluation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This sharp rise implies that Bitcoin\u2019s market capitalization is outpacing the volume of on-chain transactions, signaling reduced utility relative to value. <\/p>\n

High NVT levels typically accompany price tops or slower growth phases.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That said, similar surges have also reversed quickly once network throughput rebounded, so this may yet be a short-term imbalance.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Santiment<\/a><\/p>\n

Has the Bitcoin scarcity narrative weakened?<\/b><\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s Stock-to-Flow Ratio, a key scarcity metric, has collapsed by 71.43%, according to CryptoQuant. This sharp drop reflects a substantial change in the relationship between existing supply and new issuance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This sharp drop challenges one of Bitcoin\u2019s core long-term valuation models.<\/p>\n

Although some argue the model has lost relevance in a post-halving environment, others interpret such dips as early-cycle accumulation zones.<\/p>\n

Either way, this sharp decline puts the scarcity narrative under pressure, at least in the short term.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/p>\n

Is miner pressure mounting?<\/b><\/p>\n

The Puell Multiple at 1.25 has declined by nearly 13%, reflecting miner revenue falling below historical norms.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This compression typically indicates a challenging environment for miners, especially when profitability dips below sustainable levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Importantly, the metric is still far above the 0.4\u20130.5 capitulation threshold, but continued weakness could lead to reduced miner-led selling.<\/p>\n

Having said that, for now, it implies shrinking profitability without outright distress.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/p>\n

Could Bitcoin be setting the stage for its next big move?<\/b><\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s volatility compression, paired with on-chain weakness and overvaluation signals, paints a mixed picture.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While network activity and profitability have softened, historical precedence suggests that such quiet phases often act as launchpads for major trend reversals.<\/p>\n

If volatility remains compressed and fundamentals realign, Bitcoin could be gearing up for a breakout, just as it has in previous cycles.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPrevious: SharpLink stakes big on Ethereum: Are institutions moving away from BTC?<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: Mapping Bitcoin\u2019s climb to $122K and why stablecoins can spoil the party<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Key Takeaways Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain activity dipped, and valuation signals flashed red, but miner stress remains manageable, setting the…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":101562,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[3244,64,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-101561","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-ambcrypto","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114935499680440579","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101561\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101562"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}