{"id":1019377,"date":"2026-08-23T17:04:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-23T17:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/1019377\/"},"modified":"2026-08-23T17:04:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-23T17:04:17","slug":"a-way-too-early-look-at-la-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/1019377\/","title":{"rendered":"A Way Too Early Look at LA 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t\t\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now that the Commonwealth Games, the European Championships, and the Pan Pacific Championships are all over, it\u2019s time to take a breather and look ahead. Far ahead. We\u2019re now just two years away from the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics!<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I realize that two years out is way, way too early to start making medal predictions. After all, in 2018, nobody would\u2019ve called Lydia Jacoby a medal contender in the 100 breast for the Tokyo Olympics. For that matter, nobody in 2018 would\u2019ve considered that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics would have failed to occur in 2020\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In any case, the point here is just to have fun and take stock of what the state of the sport is right now. We get periodic comments about who is the biggest guarantee for gold right now, so let\u2019s try to answer that question! I\u2019m going to look at active swimmers\u2019 best times since the Paris Olympics and try to see what we can learn.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nGold Medal Favorites&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If we just look at the gap from #1 to #2 in the post-Paris time frame, that spread looks like this: \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the top of the list, it\u2019s the <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Gretchen Walsh Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/gretchen-walsh\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Gretchen Walsh<\/strong><\/a> and <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Summer McIntosh Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/summer-mcintosh\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Summer McIntosh<\/strong><\/a> show. In four events (Gretchen in the 50\/100 fly, Summer in the 200 fly and 400 IM), they are very, very, very far ahead of their next active competitor. <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kate Douglass Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kate-douglass\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kate Douglass<\/strong><\/a> is next on the list in the 50 free, which is especially noteworthy since, as we\u2019ve <a href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/kate-douglass-just-swam-one-of-the-most-impressive-world-records-in-swimming-history\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">recently written<\/a>, Gretchen isn\u2019t just #2 in this event since Paris \u2014 she\u2019s #2 all-time.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have to go all the way down to #6 on the list to get our first male event \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Leon Marchand Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/leon-marchand\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Leon Marchand<\/strong><\/a>\u2018s unbelievable world record in the 200 IM about 1.4% ahead of the fast-improving <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Hubert Kos Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/hubert-kos\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Hubert Kos<\/strong><\/a>. We didn\u2019t get to see Marchand swim the 200 IM at Euros due to injury, but we definitely hope he recovers soon.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The other three events with at least a 1% gap are <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Sara Curtis Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/sara-curtis\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Sara Curtis<\/strong><\/a> (UVA \u2013 European Theater)\u2019s new world record in the 50 back, Summer again in the 400 free, and <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kliment Kolesnikov Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kliment-kolesnikov\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kliment Kolesnikov<\/strong><\/a> (inscrutable acronym) also in the 50 back.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the very bottom of the list we have the events where attempting to make a gold medal prediction right now is extremely fraught. With the narrowest possible margin, <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Marrit Steenbergen Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/marrit-steenbergen\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Marrit Steenbergen<\/strong><\/a> is just 0.01s ahead of <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kate Douglass Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kate-douglass\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kate Douglass<\/strong><\/a> in the 100 free. Before 2026, there were only two 51 second swims in the history of this event. In 2026 alone, there have been nine.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While not likely to touch the world record anytime soon, the men\u2019s 800 free has been historically exciting over the last several years \u2014 with Sam Short\u2019s 7:36.7 barely ahead of <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Ahmed Jaouadi\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/ahmed-jaouadi\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ahmed Jaouadi<\/a>\u2018s 7:36.8. I can\u2019t predict who will win, but the race will probably be spectacular.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nMedal Favorites&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For some events, there may not be a clear #1, but at least there is a clear gap at the top right now. For instance, in the women\u2019s 200 breast, the rankings since Paris are:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<ol>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:18.50 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kate Douglass Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kate-douglass\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kate Douglass<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:19.32 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Evgenia Chikunova\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/evgenia-chikunova\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Evgenia Chikunova<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:19.70 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Angharad Evans\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/angharad-evans\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Angharad Evans<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:21.71 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Tes Schouten\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/tes-schouten\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tes Schouten<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<p>Three women under 2:20, fairly close to each other. Then two full seconds back to 4th place.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s a similar shape in the women\u2019s 800 free with the top three about seven seconds ahead of fourth (although <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Summer McIntosh Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/summer-mcintosh\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Summer McIntosh<\/strong><\/a> is unlikely to swim it in LA). Ledecky is shooting to become the first swimmer to win five consecutive medals in an individual event. What color will that fifth medal be?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;<\/p>\n<li>8:04.12 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Katie Ledecky Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/katie-ledecky\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Katie Ledecky<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>8:05.07 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Summer McIntosh Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/summer-mcintosh\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Summer McIntosh<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>8:05.98 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Lani Pallister Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/lani-pallister\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Lani Pallister<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>8:12.81 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Simona Quadarella Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/simona-quadarella\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Simona Quadarella<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next one down is another women\u2019s event, and one I\u2019ve already talked about: the women\u2019s 100 free. As with Summer in the 800 free, we have no idea what <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kate Douglass Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kate-douglass\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kate Douglass<\/strong><\/a> will swim in LA:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;<\/p>\n<li>51.68 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Marrit Steenbergen Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/marrit-steenbergen\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Marrit Steenbergen<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>51.69 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kate Douglass Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kate-douglass\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kate Douglass<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>51.88 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Anna Moesch\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/anna-moesch\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Anna Moesch<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>52.33 \u2014 Mollie O\u2019Callaghan<\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nThe Photo Finishes&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>For some events, not only is there not a clear #1 or a clear gap at the top, but it seems like the entire final might be right there. In the men\u2019s 200 free, there are nine guys within 1% of the top time. There are only nine men that have ever broken 1:44 in the 200 free, and five of them are active right now:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<ol>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:43.53 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"David Popovici Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/david-popovici\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>David Popovici<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:43.73 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Luke Hobson Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/luke-hobson\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Luke Hobson<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:43.76 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Leon Marchand Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/leon-marchand\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Leon Marchand<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:43.92 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Hwang Sunwoo Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/hwang-sunwoo\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Hwang Sunwoo<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:43.96 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Gabriel Jett Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/gabriel-jett\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Gabriel Jett<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:44.25 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Lukas M\u00e4rtens\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/lukas-martens\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lukas M\u00e4rtens<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:44.53 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Zhang Zhanshuo\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/zhang-zhanshuo\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zhang Zhanshuo<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:44.54 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Tatsuya Murasa\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/tatsuya-murasa\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tatsuya Murasa<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>1:44.55 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Tomas Navikonis\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/tomas-navikonis\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tomas Navikonis<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>In the men\u2019s 100 breast, there are similarly nine guys within a half percent of bronze position, with 3rd through 6th spanning a mere 0.05. And that\u2019s with <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Adam Peaty Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/adam-peaty\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Adam Peaty<\/strong><\/a> nowhere in the top group either! Van \u201cVan Pacs\u201d Mathias is the top breaststroker in the last two seasons \u2014 and still more than a second away from Peaty\u2019s record:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<ol>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.01 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Van Mathias\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/van-mathias\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Van Mathias<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.23 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Qin Haiyang Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/qin-haiyang\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Qin Haiyang<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.53 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Kirill Prigoda Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/kirill-prigoda\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Kirill Prigoda<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.54 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Shin Ohashi\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/shin-ohashi\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Shin Ohashi<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.57 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Dong Zhihao Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/don-zhihao\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Dong Zhihao<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.58 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Nicolo Martinenghi Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/nicolo-martinenghi-2\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Nicolo Martinenghi<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.68 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Ivan Kozhakin\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/ivan-kozhakin\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ivan Kozhakin<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.75 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Lucas Matzerath\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/lucas-matzerath\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lucas Matzerath<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>58.82 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Simone Cerasuolo Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/simone-cerasuolo\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Simone Cerasuolo<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>The men\u2019s 200 breast is nearly as absurd \u2014 #2 through #9 span 0.69 seconds, with four Japanese swimmers in there and <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Qin Haiyang Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/qin-haiyang\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Qin Haiyang<\/strong><\/a> (the world record holder) a mere fourth:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<ol>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:06.59 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Shin Ohashi\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/shin-ohashi\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Shin Ohashi<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.24 \u2014 Yamato Fukasawa<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.32 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Filip Nowacki\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/filip-nowacki\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Filip Nowacki<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.41 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Qin Haiyang Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/qin-haiyang\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Qin Haiyang<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.53 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Ippei Watanabe Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/ippei-watanabe\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Ippei Watanabe<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.58 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Josh Bey Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/josh-bey\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Josh Bey<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.62 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Gabe Nunziata\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/gabe-nunziata\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Gabe Nunziata<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.73 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Caspar Corbeau Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/caspar-corbeau\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Caspar Corbeau<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>2:07.93 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Yu Hanaguruma\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/yu-hanaguruma\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Yu Hanaguruma<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>The men\u2019s 800 free I mentioned earlier for its close race at the top \u2014 but it really is a close race everywhere. Just as the men\u2019s 200 breast has four Japanese swimmers in its top nine, here four of the top nine are German. German Trials might feature a medal-worthy time being left at home:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<ol>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:36.73 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Samuel Short\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/samuel-short\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Samuel Short<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:36.88 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Ahmed Jaouadi\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/ahmed-jaouadi\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ahmed Jaouadi<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:37.59 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Johannes Liebmann\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/johannes-liebmann\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Johannes Liebmann<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:38.12 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Sven Schwarz\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/sven-schwarz\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sven Schwarz<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:39.10 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Lukas M\u00e4rtens\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/lukas-martens\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lukas M\u00e4rtens<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:41.10 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Florian Wellbrock Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/florian-wellbrock\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Florian Wellbrock<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:41.52 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Daniel Wiffen Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/daniel-wiffen\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Daniel Wiffen<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:41.75 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"View more articles about Zalan Sarkany\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/tag\/zalan-sarkany\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zalan Sarkany<\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>7:42.52 \u2014 <a class=\"auto-link-tag\" title=\"Bobby Finke Bio\" href=\"https:\/\/swimswam.com\/bio\/bobby-finke\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Bobby Finke<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ol>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLooking Forward&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>The split between the events might be the most interesting take-away. The three most-bunched events (and eight of the top nine!) are all men\u2019s, the nine most spread-out are women\u2019s. Men\u2019s swimming right now is a knife fight; women\u2019s is in an era of dynasties. In the below table, I\u2019m showing the events by \u201cbunching\u201d: how wide the spread is from 1st to 6th, and how many swimmers are within 1% of 1st and 0.5% of 3rd place, respectively:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<br \/>\nEvent&#13;<br \/>\n#1\u2013#6 Spread&#13;<br \/>\nWithin 1% of #1&#13;<br \/>\nWithin 0.5% of #3&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 50 BREAST<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.69%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 200 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.70%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 200 BREAST<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.78%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 100 BREAST<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.83%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 100 BACK<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.85%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 800 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.96%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 100 BREAST<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>0.98%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 1500 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.13%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 100 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.27%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 200 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.35%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 50 FLY<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.43%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 400 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.45%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 100 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.45%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 50 BREAST<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.49%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 100 FLY<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.54%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 400 IM<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.70%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 200 BACK<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.74%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 100 BACK<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.78%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 200 IM<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1.96%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 50 BACK<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.00%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 200 FLY<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.06%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 50 BACK<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.07%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 200 BACK<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.21%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 50 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.25%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>M 200 IM<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.58%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 200 BREAST<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.69%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 800 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2.91%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 400 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.06%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 50 FLY<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.10%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 1500 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.16%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 200 FLY<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.34%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 50 FREE<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.41%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 400 IM<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.64%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>W 100 FLY<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>3.77%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>None of us have any idea what to expect in Los Angeles. Someone none of us have heard of yet will probably win a medal. Some of these strong favorites will win a medal, some of them probably won\u2019t. There\u2019s only one thing I know for sure: that I\u2019m definitely not spending $1100 on a single session prelims ticket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"&#13; Now that the Commonwealth Games, the European Championships, and the Pan Pacific Championships are all over, it\u2019s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1019378,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5123],"tags":[399703,407917,407918,407919,388125,399707,1582,276,407920,407921,407922,407923,407924,407925,407926,407927,407928,407929,399317,65176,407930,407931,407932,407933,407934,407935,72629,399330,254316,399332,407936,407937,399719,2961,399337,407938,224,5337,388143,407939,407940,407941,399340,399721,407942,407943,407944,407945,399729,72632,407946,407947,407948,400296,400299,407949,407950,65180,407951,400302,399363,407952,399732,407953,400303,399369,407954,407955,407956,399372,407957,407958,399373],"class_list":["post-1019377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-adam-peaty","tag-ahmed-jaouadi","tag-angharad-evans","tag-anna-elendt","tag-anna-moesch","tag-bobby-finke","tag-ca","tag-california","tag-cameron-mcevoy","tag-caspar-corbeau","tag-daniel-wiffen","tag-david-popovici","tag-dong-zhihao","tag-egor-kornev","tag-evgenia-chikunova","tag-filip-nowacki","tag-florian-wellbrock","tag-gabe-nunziata","tag-gabriel-jett","tag-gretchen-walsh","tag-hubert-kos","tag-hwang-sunwoo","tag-ippei-watanabe","tag-ivan-kozhakin","tag-johannes-liebmann","tag-josh-bey","tag-kate-douglass","tag-katharine-berkoff","tag-katie-ledecky","tag-kaylee-mckeown","tag-kirill-prigoda","tag-kliment-kolesnikov","tag-kristof-milak","tag-la","tag-lani-pallister","tag-leon-marchand","tag-los-angeles","tag-losangeles","tag-luca-urlando","tag-lucas-matzerath","tag-ludovico-viberti","tag-lukas-martens","tag-luke-hobson","tag-marrit-steenbergen","tag-maxime-grousset","tag-mollie-ocallaghan","tag-nicolo-martinenghi","tag-pieter-coetze","tag-qin-haiyang","tag-regan-smith","tag-roos-vanotterdijk","tag-ruta-meilutyte","tag-samuel-short","tag-sara-curtis","tag-shin-ohashi","tag-simona-quadarella","tag-simone-cerasuolo","tag-summer-mcintosh","tag-sven-schwarz","tag-tang-qianting","tag-tatsuya-murasa","tag-tes-schouten","tag-thomas-ceccon","tag-tomas-navikonis","tag-tomoyuki-matsushita","tag-van-mathias","tag-xu-jiayu","tag-yamato-fukusawa","tag-yu-hanaguruma","tag-yu-yiting","tag-yu-zidi","tag-zalan-sarkany","tag-zhang-zhanshuo"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1019377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1019377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1019377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1019378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1019377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1019377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1019377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}