{"id":1031972,"date":"2026-08-30T00:20:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T00:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/1031972\/"},"modified":"2026-08-30T00:20:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-30T00:20:23","slug":"peterson-institutes-posen-its-fine-for-the-fed-not-to-give-forward-guidance-but-a-forecast-is-critical","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/1031972\/","title":{"rendered":"Peterson Institute’s Posen: It’s fine for the Fed not to give forward guidance, but a forecast is critical"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh addressed his colleagues and the world on Friday morning in the Grand Tetons, there was one thing everyone was looking for: clarity on committing to raising interest rates if inflation doesn’t come down. <\/p>\n

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, expected Warsh to say he’s not giving forward guidance, but that inflation is job No. 1 and the Federal Open Market Committee needs to consider seriously raising rates if inflation does not come down. That’s pretty much what Warsh did<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But Posen said that where Warsh could go wrong is by conflating forward guidance with forecasts. He says it’s wise not to commit to a path for interest rates, but forecasts still matter, making clear what officials think are the most important economic factors. <\/p>\n

And for the first time, Warsh did provide his assessment of the economy, noting that economic growth appears to have strengthened and citing “rapidly rising” capital expenditures. He noted that consumer spending adjusted for inflation has been healthy despite the surge in oil prices, tariffs, and other shocks, increasing by more than 2% over the past four quarters. He called the job market “quite stable” while acknowledging that inflation is running well above the Fed’s 2% target. <\/p>\n

Read more:\u00a0How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related<\/a> <\/p>\n

Posen said such an assessment “gives you a framework for having a debate in the committee because without a forecast, everybody’s just sort of blathering. It’s fine to not spoon-feed the markets, but it’s not fine to not give a forecast.” <\/p>\n

Forward guidance, Posen noted, was a desperation tactic borne of the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he said, “it means much, much, much less than he seems to think it means.” <\/p>\n

For his part, Posen said he thinks inflation is going to persist and that current interest rates aren’t high enough to bring it down. He didn’t agree with the 75 basis points in cuts last fall. <\/p>\n

“You’re in a situation where your credibility is down, the labor market is tighter than you think, policy is looser than you think, so whatever the next shock is, it’s likely to cause more persistent inflation,” Posen said, citing the Iran war. <\/p>\n

Posen says he thinks the Fed should raise rates twice before the end of the year, but may delay until December and January because of the midterm elections. <\/p>\n

“So if the Fed raises rates in December and January, it’ll be probably too late,” he said. “It’ll certainly be too late compared to when they should have, and probably too little.” <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh addressed his colleagues and the world on Friday morning in the Grand Tetons,…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1031973,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[6],"tags":[97042,64,1257,5037,75621,67,132,68,283886],"class_list":["post-1031972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-adam-posen","tag-business","tag-fed","tag-it","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-united-states","tag-unitedstates","tag-us","tag-warsh"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/117181600791230307","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1031972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031972\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1031973"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1031972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1031972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1031972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}