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Blake Gendebien during an interview with the Times Union in Glens Falls in August. (Alexander\u00a0MacDougall\/Times Union)<\/p>\n
Alexander MacDougall\/Times Union<\/p>\n
ALBANY\u00a0\u2014 Among New York\u2019s 26 congressional districts, the 21st district is something of an outlier. Unlike many districts in the state that are small and urban, the sprawling rural district spans 15 counties and more than 16,000 square miles\u00a0\u2014 roughly three times the size of Connecticut.<\/p>\n
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Its voters mostly supported former President Barack Obama twice before voting for President Donald J. Trump in the last three presidential elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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That decidedly recent conservative edge means Democrat Blake Gendebien will need all the help he can get if he wants to defeat Republican Anthony Constantino in the November midterm elections. And it\u2019s unclear whether the assistance\u00a0Gendebien\u2019s campaign is receiving\u00a0from state and national Democrats, including\u00a0Gov. Kathy Hochul, is doing more harm than good.<\/p>\n
Constantino\u2019s campaign certainly thinks so. The Republican candidate and Sticker Mule CEO jumped on a recently published article in Politico that claimed Gendebien was pressured to pull an ad saying, if it helped the district, he would \u201cstand up to Kathy Hochul or work with Donald Trump.\u201d In a series of social media posts over the past week, Constantino described Gendebien as a \u201cfar-left puppet.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a political gift for us,\u201d said Alex deGrasse, a spokesperson for the Constantino campaign. \u201cWhen I woke up that morning and saw the news, I couldn\u2019t have been happier.\u201d \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Gendebien\u2019s campaign maintains that the ad had reached the end of its intended life cycle; they shifted to airing a new ad that juxtaposes footage of Gendebien\u2019s work as a dairy farmer with Constantino swimming and unveiling a large bronze statue of Trump. \u00a0<\/p>\n
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\u201cFarmers know high prices hurt families,\u201d the ad states. \u201cBut politicians like Anthony Constantino only care about enriching themselves.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
The incident highlights the delicate balancing act Democrats like Gendebien must perform in trying to flip a district where many voters hold more conservative views and continue to support the current president. By contrast, recent indicators suggest Hochul\u2019s popularity in the district, where she lost in all 15 counties in the 2022 election, continues to lag behind other parts of the state.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A Siena Research Institute poll from\u00a0Aug. 12 shows that upstate voters slightly preferred Hochul\u2019s opponent, Bruce Blakeman, in the upcoming gubernatorial election. A poll done by SurveyUSA earlier this month said that 57% of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Hochul, compared to 40% favorable (that same poll showed Gendebien holding a slight lead over Constantino, with the latter condemning<\/a> the results and threatening legal action).<\/p>\n Lynne Boecher, who chairs the Warren County Democratic Committee in the district, defended the governor\u2019s record in upstate.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cKathy Hochul was born and raised in upstate New York and has always delivered for our families,\u201d Boecher said in a statement. \u201cWhether that\u2019s getting relief from the Trump tariffs hurting our farmers and our businesses, or protecting our healthcare when it\u2019s at risk, Gov. Hochul has fought for what matters most.\u201d \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n For now, Gendebien continues to receive strong support from the New York State Democratic Party, and Gendebien attended the opening of the party\u2019s coordinated campaign office in Glens Falls, one of three such offices operating in the district.\u00a0<\/p>\n Lessons from Maine<\/p>\n Should Gendebien prevail in the midterm election, he would join a cohort of moderate Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump in the most recent presidential election. Currently, there are 23 districts across the country that elected Democrats in 2024 while simultaneously voting for Trump.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Those include Maine\u2019s 2nd Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, and Washington\u2019s 3rd Congressional District, held by Marie\u00a0Gluesenkamp Perez. Both have become known for often going against many of the popular stances of their party. In New York, Tom\u00a0Suozzi won a special election in New York\u2019s 3rd Congressional District in 2024 following the expulsion of George Santos, with the district voting for Trump that same year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Golden\u2019s district in Maine strongly resembles that of NY-21. It\u2019s geographically large, with a predominantly rural and working class population that voted for Trump in the last three presidential elections. It stands in contrast to Maine\u2019s only other congressional district, which is more cosmopolitan and focused on affluent coastline regions and the city of Portland.\u00a0<\/p>\n Despite the district\u2019s conservative bent, Golden has managed to persevere in the last four congressional elections. But like NY-21 incumbent U.S. Rep. Elise\u00a0Stefanik, he is not seeking reelection. Michael Saxl, a political consultant in Maine who has worked closely with Golden in his election campaigns, offered some advice for Gendebien and New York Democrats if they want to retake the district.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThey should run local and run hard,\u201d\u00a0Saxl said. \u201cThey should completely not be immersed in following any kind of party line doctrine.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n While a much more progressive and socialist flank of Democrats in New York and in other states have found success in primary elections, energized by the recent election and popularity of New York City Mayor\u00a0Zohran Mamdani, Saxl cautioned against following national trends, saying the ideological uniformity does not equate with electoral success.\u00a0<\/p>\n Newsletter<\/p>\n Sign up for the Capitol A.M. Roundup newsletter<\/p>\n Get a free roundup of New York government and political news, delivered weekdays to your inbox.<\/p>\n