Recession? What recession? <\/p>\n
The US economy bucked nonstop doom-and-gloom by economists \u2014 including some at Wall Street\u2019s biggest banks \u2014 and reported stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, marked by a surge in hiring and wages.<\/p>\n
Gross domestic product \u2013 the value of all goods and services produced across the US economy \u2013 jumped by a seasonally and inflation adjusted 3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.<\/p>\n
That rebounded from a 0.5% decline in the first quarter and beat estimates of just 2.3% growth. A recession is usually defined by the GDP slipping in two consecutive quarters.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cargo containers sit stacked at the Panama Canal Balboa port. AP<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, private employers added 104,000 jobs last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday.<\/p>\n
That reversed a 23,000 drop in June and exceeded the forecast for an increase of 64,000.<\/p>\n
Annual wages spiked 4.4% \u2014 well above the rate of inflation, which has remained below 3% despite harping that President Trump\u2019s tariffs would jack up prices.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,\u201d Nela Richardson, ADP\u2019s chief economist, said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cEmployers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.\u201d<\/p>\n
Private employers added 104,000 jobs last month, according to the ADP. Christopher Sadowski<\/p>\n
That resilience upended dire predictions for a recession by many left-leaning politicians and even big banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. The Wall Street giants had hiked the risk level for a recession to 65% and 60%, respectively, in April following Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff rollout.<\/p>\n
One JPMorgan dashboard of market-based recession indicators put the likelihood at \u201cnearly 80%, with the Russell 2000 pricing in a 79% chance of an economic downturn,\u201d Bloomberg reported on April 8.<\/p>\n
Both banks have since lowered the odds, to 40% by Jamie Dimon-led JPMorgan and 30% by Goldman-led David Solomon.<\/p>\n
The GDP surged without any help from the government as federal outlays declined 3.7%, coming off a steep 4.6% drop in the first quarter.<\/p>\n
A container ship at a port in Qingdao, China. AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
Trump cheered the strong GDP data in a post on Truth Social before once again calling on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates: \u201cNo Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their home!\u201d<\/p>\n
Fed policymakers, however, resisted pressure from the White House, leaving rates unchanged after their two-day meeting ended Wednesday.<\/p>\n