By the afternoon on Thursday, Kalshi was pricing in a probability of about 90% that Apple was going to mention words like “China” and “Tariff” during the call, while the mention of “Severance” was being priced in at more than 50%.<\/p>\n
Betting on this question has brought in more than $48,000 in trading volumes.<\/p>\n
Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards<\/p>\n
Apple has come under pressure to boost domestic manufacturing in recent months. In May, President Donald Trump said that Apple would have to pay a tariff of 25% or more<\/a> for its iPhones not made in the U.S.<\/p>\n The company has since made efforts to relieve some of that pressure, announcing earlier this week that it’s going to open a manufacturing academy in downtown Detroit<\/a> next month, where it plans to offer manufacturing and artificial intelligence workshops to small and medium-sized businesses.<\/p>\n But analysts have said that U.S.-made iPhones would make the device much more costly<\/a>, as some estimates have put its price in a range of $1,500 to $3,500. The company mainly manufactures most of its iPhones in China but has expanded its production to India<\/a> amid the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs.<\/p>\n The move has evidently been taking hold, as a report released this week showed that India surpassed China in smartphone exports<\/a> during the second quarter.<\/p>\n Heading into its print, Barclays analyst Tim Long forecasts that iPhones will “struggle” due to a “rough” macroeconomic backdrop, a lack of new product and feature traction, as well as market share losses in China.<\/p>\n “According to Apple, the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are expected to have India as their country of origin for the June-Q, and almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods sold in the U.S. are expected to ship from Vietnam for the Q,” he wrote. “We expect AAPL could adopt other mitigation efforts \u2026 before it would turn to pricing actions, which we would expect to erode demand.”<\/p>\n Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards<\/p>\n Alongside commentary related to China tariffs, Kalshi users are expecting some discussion of the most-watched series<\/a> on Apple TV+, “Severance,” which saw a boost in popularity with the premiere of its second season earlier this year.<\/p>\n It was officially renewed for a third season<\/a> shortly after its season two finale aired in March.<\/p>\n Other words in the entertainment industry like “Formula 1\/F1” stood at 88% odds among users. “F1: The Movie” generated more than $293 million<\/a> globally just days after its release, becoming Apple’s highest-grossing theatrical film.<\/p>\n Stock Chart IconStock chart icon Apple vs. S&P 500, year-to-date<\/p>\n![\"hide](\"https:\/\/static-redesign.cnbcfm.com\/dist\/a54b41835a8b60db28c2.svg\")
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