TikTok is brimming with what users are calling modern-day recession indicators<\/a>. Among the most talked-about are the hemline index\u2014the theory that skirt lengths tend to get longer as economic downturns loom\u2014and the lipstick index, which links spikes in lipstick purchases or Google searches to the onset of past recessions. The last time the National Bureau of Economic Research, where Gertler works, declared a recession was because of the pandemic. It was the shortest recession in US history, lasting from February to April 2020. Before that, the Great Recession<\/a>, from 2007 to 2009, was the worst economic downturn in decades, and its impact reverberated through early 2000s culture. <\/p>\n \u201cIt could be that Lady Gaga concerts were correlated over a certain period,\u201d Gertler was quoted as saying by Seattle Times. \u201cBut if there\u2019s not a fundamental economic reason for that, the correlation will likely break down over time.\u201d <\/p>\n The Great Recession was a \u201cdifferent animal\u201d Gertler said, triggered by a bursting of the housing market bubble. When examining actual recession predictors, the US economy is holding fairly steady.<\/p>\n
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Is US headed for a recession?\u201cA huge recession indicator nobody is talking about, ready? The club is only getting stronger,\u201d one TikTok post said, reports Seattle Times. \u201cWe have an event here in Seattle at Cha Cha Lounge (where) they throw Latin night on a Wednesday and it gets packed.\u201d ![\"ET](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/118783427.cms.png\")
Live Events\u201cFive things trending this summer that are actually just recession indicators,\u201d one TikTok creator says in a video, going on to point to short nails, minimalism, people quitting fake tanning and a return to natural hair colors as signs of a recession.
Some posts suggested that signs of cost-cutting or anything evoking the 2007\u20132009 era are indicators that the US economy<\/a> may be headed for a downturn. But experts don’t share the same views and assessment as actual economic indicators hold steady despite clouds of uncertainty. Economists use metrics to predict recessions, such as the unemployment rate, now at 4.1%, and weekly unemployment insurance claims.
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The US real gross domestic product increased at a 3% annual rate from April through June, an improvement after contracting 0.5% in the first quarter, according to an advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released this week. To be in a recession, the economy has to have two consecutive quarters, or six months, of negative GDP growth, economist Mark Gertler told The Seattle Times. This means, currently the US economy is not in a recession. <\/p>\n