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Climate change could be even worse than we thought<\/p>\n
Kapook2981\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Earth\u2019s climate<\/a> may be more sensitive to pollution from greenhouse gas emissions than we had hoped, which could mean limiting the rise in global temperature to less than 2\u00b0C will be more difficult.<\/p>\n This is \u201cbad news\u201d for global efforts to tackle climate change, says Gunnar Myhre<\/a> at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway.<\/p>\n Researchers have known for decades that pumping greenhouse gases<\/a> into Earth\u2019s atmosphere will warm the climate, with far-reaching consequences. But what scientists do not know for sure is how much warming we can expect as a consequence of this pollution. In other words, how sensitive is Earth\u2019s climate to these emissions?<\/p>\n The main uncertainty stems from the question of how clouds will respond to a warming atmosphere, as shifts in cloud systems can amplify the warming effect in a vicious feedback loop.<\/p>\n Most estimates of how much warming we can expect by the end of the century are based on running climate models with a range of sensitivity assumptions. Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that a doubling of atmospheric CO\u2082 concentrations relative to pre-industrial levels would produce between 2\u00b0C and 5\u00b0C of warming, with the organisation settling on a central estimate of 3\u00b0C.<\/p>\n Alongside his colleagues, Myhre set out to compare predictions from these climate models against satellite readings of Earth\u2019s energy imbalance<\/a>. This is a measure of how much surplus heat is in our climate system, and it gives an indication of the sensitivity level of the global climate.<\/p>\n The team found that climate models with low sensitivity \u2013 those that suggest Earth\u2019s climate is more resistant to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere \u2013 don\u2019t match satellite records gathered since the turn of the millennium. Models with a higher level of sensitivity, suggesting Earth\u2019s climate is less resistant to these gases, more closely match observations, says Myhre. \u201cThe optimistic models that would give us a small amount of warming are more unlikely,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n The findings call into question the accuracy of climate models that predict less than 2.9\u00b0C of warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO\u2082. Instead, they suggest warming above this level is more likely for the same amount of pollution<\/a>.<\/p>\n This also tallies with recent record-breaking temperatures recorded over land and sea since 2023, which \u201cpoint towards a stronger climate feedback\u201d in the atmosphere, says Myhre.<\/p>\n A more sensitive climate means emissions must fall faster to maintain the same temperature trajectory. In short, the world has to decarbonise further and faster to fulfil its climate commitments.<\/p>\n