{"id":120612,"date":"2025-08-05T10:21:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T10:21:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/120612\/"},"modified":"2025-08-05T10:21:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T10:21:14","slug":"derrick-henrys-case-for-canton","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/120612\/","title":{"rendered":"Derrick Henry’s Case For Canton"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nearly four years ago, I wrote this piece<\/a> on John Harbaugh\u2019s candidacy for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Since then, the Ravens have gone 43-25 in the regular season, winning two straight AFC North titles. That record equates to an average season of 11-6 (.632 winning percentage), which in most cases is good enough for a division championship.<\/p>\n

Baltimore is coming off of their 3rd-straight double-digit win season. On the previous two occasions they won 10+ in three straight years, they won just eight games and missed the playoffs in the following season.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s safe to say that as long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy, the Ravens will buck that trend and win more than eight games in 2025.<\/p>\n

A major reason why Baltimore is so confident in its team (and why the Ravens are the favorite to win Super Bowl LX) is because of their running game. Astoundingly, the Ravens\u2014a historically great running offense\u2014acquired Derrick Henry\u2014a historically great running back\u2014in 2024 (for $11 million<\/a>, no less).<\/p>\n

Since 2019, when Lamar Jackson became Baltimore\u2019s regular starting quarterback, the Ravens have absolutely run roughshod over the competition. In that span, Baltimore has led the league in rushing four times, and has finished 2nd (2022) and 3rd (2021) in the other two years. Since Week 1 of 2019, the Ravens have averaged 174.6 rushing yards per game and have posted a rushing touchdown\/lost fumble ratio of 5.6:1 (124:22).<\/p>\n

Despite changing coordinators, coaches, and personnel on the offensive line, the Ravens franchise has sustained this dominance for six years. That\u2019s noteworthy because the inevitable and premature criticism that Henry is getting old (a clueless argument) is combatted by Baltimore\u2019s elite, sustained rushing success.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re skeptical of Henry being able to repeat his amazing 2024 campaign, recent history suggests his support system will insulate him from any marked decline in performance.<\/p>\n

Established are the facts that Henry and the Ravens are great rushing entities on their own, and legendary as a pairing. How great, though, can Henry be? Should he expect an invite to Canton one day?<\/p>\n

100 percent.<\/p>\n

Not only is Henry on track to be a Pro Football Hall of Famer, but he\u2019s heading towards achieving that distinct honor on the first ballot. He has a lot of work to do to summit that mountaintop, but there are three distinct criteria that should give you confidence he will reach that destination.<\/p>\n

What has he done already?<\/strong><\/p>\n

As of today, Henry has rushed for 11,423 yards and 106 touchdowns in his 9-year NFL career. If he stopped playing today, he\u2019d have an excellent case for Canton. As things go, what gets you into the Hall isn\u2019t just your play on the field, but how you compare with others who\u2019ve played your position.<\/p>\n

With the exception of Frank Gore (eligible in 2026) and Adrian Peterson (eligible in 2027), every running back that has eclipsed 12,000 rushing yards is a Hall of Famer. By this standard, Henry needs 577 rushing yards to join that \u201cclub.\u201d The only time he rushed for less than that amount was in his rookie season when he ran for 490 yards, but that year, he only got 110 carries. Something would need to go seriously wrong for him to not reach 12,000 career rushing yards. As a matter of fact, if you extrapolate out his \u201cworst\u201d season average of 4.2 yards per carry, you get a season total of 1,239 rushing yards. Enough said.<\/p>\n

How does that compare to current Hall of Famers at his position?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Henry is one of only 13 players ever to rank in the Top 20 in career rushing yards and career rushing touchdowns. The other 12 players: Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, *Adrian Peterson, Curtis Martin, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jerome Bettis, Eric Dickerson, Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk, Marcus Allen, and Franco Harris (*Peterson is not in yet).<\/p>\n

To drill down even further, Henry has accumulated such an impressive resume while playing 89 percent of his career without the benefit of Baltimore\u2019s historic running attack. He\u2019s done so well having played eight of his nine seasons in Tennessee\u2014a team that, while they weren\u2019t terrible when he was there, offered nowhere near the potency that the Ravens do now. In a scary way, Henry may not have reached his best football yet.<\/p>\n

Many people consider Jim Brown to be the best football player of all-time. Henry needs 890 rushing yards to pass Brown on the all-time list. Henry has crushed that mark in every one of his past seven seasons.<\/p>\n

What can we expect from the duration of his career?<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the part where I think the case of his candidacy shifts from \u201cShould he be elected to the Hall of Fame\u201d to \u201cShould he be elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot?\u201d<\/p>\n

As of today, if I had to quantify Henry\u2019s chances of making the Hall of Fame on his first try, I\u2019d say he has a 75 percent chance. The overwhelming thought is that while he may not reach 1,900-plus yards like last year, he will do very, very well. Think about the facts that, by and large, his coaches haven\u2019t changed, Lamar looks as good as ever, Mark Andrews is on a mission, and DeAndre Hopkins is now in the fold. This offense is a defensive coordinator\u2019s worst nightmare.<\/p>\n

A fair forecast of the duration of Henry\u2019s contract in Baltimore would be to use his last three seasons as a template. Since he has three years left on his current deal, and most of Baltimore\u2019s supporting cast will be with the team through that 2027 season, it\u2019s fair to extrapolate Henry\u2019s performance as follows:<\/p>\n