{"id":129859,"date":"2025-08-08T19:43:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T19:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/129859\/"},"modified":"2025-08-08T19:43:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T19:43:09","slug":"fantasy-baseball-lineup-advice-and-betting-tips-for-friday-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/129859\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/fantasy\/baseball\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fantasy baseball<\/a> lineup decisions. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/chalk\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">MLB betting tips<\/a> for each day&#8217;s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/uiWE8nPBnJb\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ESPN BET<\/a><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/>, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/fantasy\/baseball\/story\/_\/id\/43425955\/espn-playbook-inning-1-draft-kit-advice-how-play-fantasy-baseball\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">standard scoring<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today&#8217;s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/fantasy\/baseball\/story\/_\/id\/44288339\/espn-fantasy-baseball-buzz-injuries-promotions-demotions-trades-prospects-lineup-changes-mlb-news-analysis\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fantasy baseball news<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Jump to: <a href=\"#Pitchers\">Pitching notes<\/a> | <a href=\"#Hitters\">Hitting notes<\/a> | <a href=\"#Betting\">Betting tips<\/a> <\/strong><br \/><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/fantasy\/baseball\/flb\/story?page=REcloserorgchart&amp;addata=flb_mainnav_closers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Reliever depth chart<\/a> | <a href=\"http:\/\/fantasy.espn.com\/baseball\/welcome?addata=flb_2025_context\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Start a new league<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY<\/p>\n<p>Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster\/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (<b>FPTS<\/b>), using ESPN&#8217;s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).<\/p>\n<p><b>T:<\/b> The pitcher&#8217;s handedness. <b>OPP:<\/b> Opposing team. <b>RST%:<\/b> The pitcher&#8217;s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. <b>ML:<\/b> ESPN BET Money Line. <b>O\/U:<\/b> ESPN BET Over\/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, <b>W%<\/b> is the team&#8217;s win probability using ESPN projections, <b>IP<\/b> is innings pitched, <b>ER<\/b> is earned runs allowed and <b>K<\/b> is strikeouts.<\/p>\n<p>If a team is planning on using an &#8220;opener&#8221; to start their game, but will rely on a &#8220;bulk pitcher&#8221; to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.<\/p>\n<p>Pitchers to stream on Friday<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Every five or six days, <strong><a data-player-guid=\"de267d58-fbaf-a33a-4842-526ae031aec5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/40944\/edward-cabrera\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Edward Cabrera<\/a><\/strong>&#8216;s stats since his slow start are cited, and they keep getting better. Since May 20, only five pitchers logging at least 60 frames have a lower ERA than Cabrera&#8217;s 2.06 mark during that span. His 3.36 xFIP is 18th best over that same stretch, so while he&#8217;s been a little lucky, Cabrera has been a top-20 starting pitcher for well over two months. Next up is a road date with the <a data-clubhouse-guid=\"122673a3-bf06-4432-6950-b8a32e52ac2e\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/atl\/atlanta-braves\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Atlanta Braves<\/a> and a below-average lineup missing <a data-player-guid=\"fc243676-7041-8378-88e3-e893b5382f8c\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/36185\/ronald-acuna-jr\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ronald Acuna Jr<\/a>. and <a data-player-guid=\"dbedb213-8691-b041-9a77-b34af9be9889\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/34982\/austin-riley\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Austin Riley<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong><a data-player-guid=\"520abed4-248d-3d7c-b24e-b9520df98636\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/4927516\/chase-burns\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Chase Burns<\/a>&#8216;<\/strong> last outing was at the 2025 MLB Speedway Classic, but he was limited to one inning after the game was suspended. He was off to a strong start with two punchouts. Despite the abbreviated appearance, The <a data-clubhouse-guid=\"04b65a0b-3cca-d795-0e21-23606470418a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/cin\/cincinnati-reds\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cincinnati Reds<\/a> gave Burns regular rest before Friday night&#8217;s road affair with the <a data-clubhouse-guid=\"5b8fc9be-4020-52c6-aa28-9a0f2d4383e0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/pit\/pittsburgh-pirates\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a>. The well-rested rookie faces the lineup averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>For the season, the <a data-clubhouse-guid=\"fb7cf413-5156-9fc2-abe0-2273b89f70db\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/lad\/los-angeles-dodgers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> are averaging the second-most runs per game. However, avoiding opposing pitchers for the past month meant not facing the team averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game in the league over that stretch. The defending World Series champions can snap out of their rut at any time, so there is risk. That said, veteran <strong><a data-player-guid=\"a9fe8a8f-25e3-3d90-b410-96f40b03a927\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/28976\/max-scherzer\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Max Scherzer<\/a><\/strong> is finding his groove with two straight quality starts, featuring 15 strikeouts with no walks over 13 frames. On Friday&#8217;s pitching rankings, Scherzer checks in as the top-ranked streamer when the <a data-clubhouse-guid=\"0151aed9-9f11-ceae-195d-180ca603b64a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/tor\/toronto-blue-jays\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> visit the Dodgers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pitchers to avoid on Friday<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><strong><a data-player-guid=\"4a87615e-b6ca-3311-b7c2-4858cb376b07\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/4142421\/kodai-senga\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Kodai Senga<\/a><\/strong> has sputtered since the break, posting a bloated 8.25 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in three starts, covering only 12 frames. He fanned a respectable 12 hitters but issued 11 walks while yielding four homers. A road matchup with the <a data-clubhouse-guid=\"4750d73d-d92e-b390-758c-2c7b44a810db\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/mil\/milwaukee-brewers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> is not the ideal opportunity to get back on track. The Brewers are averaging the second-most runs per game in the league since the clubs returned to action following the Midseason Classic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Today&#8217;s best matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"c6df06f6-785d-3900-4935-5fd13742e2ee\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/bos\/boston-red-sox\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Boston Red Sox<\/a> pitchers vs. Padres hitters<\/b><br \/>Offense: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away<br \/>The average pitcher would post a 3.12 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"4750d73d-d92e-b390-758c-2c7b44a810db\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/mil\/milwaukee-brewers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> pitchers vs. Mets hitters<\/b><br \/>Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: A | Home<br \/>The average pitcher would post a 3.55 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"56d60582-088f-6848-5180-1fb04440cf87\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/sea\/seattle-mariners\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Seattle Mariners<\/a> pitchers vs. Rays hitters<\/b><br \/>Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home<br \/>The average pitcher would post a 3.60 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s worst matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"0151aed9-9f11-ceae-195d-180ca603b64a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/tor\/toronto-blue-jays\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters<\/b><br \/>Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Away<br \/>The average pitcher would post a 5.74 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"00a3015f-09ec-1b03-52af-656f5e0a18d5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/hou\/houston-astros\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Houston Astros<\/a> pitchers vs. Yankees hitters<\/b><br \/>Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away<br \/>The average pitcher would post a 5.20 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"11a5df00-0945-35a5-66fe-a3a107975558\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/kc\/kansas-city-royals\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Kansas City Royals<\/a> pitchers vs. Twins hitters<\/b><br \/>Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away<br \/>The average pitcher would post a 4.95 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p>Hitters to stream on FridayToday&#8217;s best matchups for hitters<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"9ca473b8-e73e-a33d-8ea0-b4d160be4be7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/bal\/baltimore-orioles\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Baltimore Orioles<\/a> LHB vs. Athletics pitchers<\/b><br \/>SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home<br \/>The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"a6e97b3f-4244-98be-79a2-f4b33f3365e6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/min\/minnesota-twins\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Minnesota Twins<\/a> LHB vs. Royals pitchers<\/b><br \/>SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home<br \/>The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"43e14a76-ff66-49ed-24fc-2835932f99dd\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/ari\/arizona-diamondbacks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> RHB vs. Rockies pitchers<\/b><br \/>SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home<br \/>The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s worst matchups for hitters<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"f8a579c6-08b9-7584-141d-317d0645763b\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/tb\/tampa-bay-rays\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> RHB vs. Mariners pitchers<\/b><br \/>SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away<br \/>The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"ff1e263a-f6a6-93c3-1373-418623652ff0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/phi\/philadelphia-phillies\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> RHB vs. Rangers pitchers<\/b><br \/>SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away<br \/>The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-clubhouse-guid=\"053868c7-8bff-5edb-3cb6-f5490f33ef99\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/team\/_\/name\/laa\/los-angeles-angels\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Los Angeles Angels<\/a> RHB vs. Tigers pitchers<\/b><br \/>SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away<br \/>The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Betting tips<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Best\/worst pitcher\/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s top HR prop bets<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-player-guid=\"507645e1-1fa0-3e50-b541-3d37c9f4f43a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/4917919\/lawrence-butler\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lawrence Butler<\/a><\/b> | <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/integrations?market_selection_id%5B0%5D=c6b355d9-c41b-4a8c-a73f-6585021db33a&amp;odds_numerator%5B0%5D=6&amp;odds_denominator%5B0%5D=1&amp;%24canonical_url=%2Fsport%2Fbaseball%2Forganization%2Funited-states%2Fcompetition%2Fmlb%2Fevent%2Fcb9d2b8e-4683-4eb5-b945-6a81f5702199%2Fsection%2Fplayer_props&amp;campaign=betting-integrations&amp;clr=espnbettingintegration&amp;%243p=a_espn&amp;customer_campaign=article&amp;%7Echannel=espn-content&amp;tags=MLB\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">OVER 0.5 HR (+500)<\/a><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/><\/strong><br \/><b>Projection:<\/b> 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.96 EV<br \/><b>One reason to bet this:<\/b> Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the No. 8 field in baseball for left-handed home runs, per my projections.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-player-guid=\"0fc2e345-a28a-9c20-023a-e80747e8d0d0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/40926\/brent-rooker\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brent Rooker<\/a><\/b> | <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/integrations?market_selection_id%5B0%5D=d52b429b-431e-4fec-8955-fee5b71dcf16&amp;odds_numerator%5B0%5D=15&amp;odds_denominator%5B0%5D=4&amp;%24canonical_url=%2Fsport%2Fbaseball%2Forganization%2Funited-states%2Fcompetition%2Fmlb%2Fevent%2Fcb9d2b8e-4683-4eb5-b945-6a81f5702199%2Fsection%2Fplayer_props&amp;campaign=betting-integrations&amp;clr=espnbettingintegration&amp;%243p=a_espn&amp;customer_campaign=article&amp;%7Echannel=espn-content&amp;tags=MLB\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">OVER 0.5 HR (+325)<\/a><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/><\/strong><br \/><b>Projection:<\/b> 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.16 EV<br \/><b>One reason to bet this:<\/b> By putting up a .359 expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by my projections) this year, Rooker is positioned in the 90th percentile for offensive ability.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-player-guid=\"39d9e9c1-5b64-322f-af99-704a126b7ca8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/4683371\/coby-mayo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Coby Mayo<\/a><\/b> | <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/integrations?market_selection_id%5B0%5D=964258a1-b01d-4076-9a65-4030dc42a5f0&amp;odds_numerator%5B0%5D=8&amp;odds_denominator%5B0%5D=1&amp;%24canonical_url=%2Fsport%2Fbaseball%2Forganization%2Funited-states%2Fcompetition%2Fmlb%2Fevent%2Fcb9d2b8e-4683-4eb5-b945-6a81f5702199%2Fsection%2Fplayer_props&amp;campaign=betting-integrations&amp;clr=espnbettingintegration&amp;%243p=a_espn&amp;customer_campaign=article&amp;%7Echannel=espn-content&amp;tags=MLB\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">OVER 0.5 HR (+900)<\/a><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/><\/strong><br \/><b>Projection:<\/b> 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.10 EV<br \/><b>One reason to bet this:<\/b> Oriole Park at Camden Yards also ranks as the No. 8 venue in the game for right-handed home runs, per my projections.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-player-guid=\"520abed4-248d-3d7c-b24e-b9520df98636\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/4927516\/chase-burns\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Chase Burns<\/a><\/b> | <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/integrations?market_selection_id%5B0%5D=62573b4f-2468-4dac-8aa2-2291208dae47&amp;odds_numerator%5B0%5D=41&amp;odds_denominator%5B0%5D=21&amp;%24canonical_url=%2Fsport%2Fbaseball%2Forganization%2Funited-states%2Fcompetition%2Fmlb%2Fevent%2Fe0ad2846-790b-4571-a4d6-0855e2c846fd%2Fsection%2Fplayer_props&amp;campaign=betting-integrations&amp;clr=espnbettingintegration&amp;%243p=a_espn&amp;customer_campaign=article&amp;%7Echannel=espn-content&amp;tags=MLB\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">UNDER 7.5 K (-105)<\/a><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/><\/strong><br \/><b>Projection:<\/b> 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.39 EV<br \/><b>One reason to bet this:<\/b> My projection system ranks PNC Park as the fifth-worst field in the league for strikeouts.<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-player-guid=\"18179f89-dcb9-9d42-a7ec-99aa1c26c5fb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/34401\/matthew-boyd\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Matthew Boyd<\/a><\/b> | <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/integrations?market_selection_id%5B0%5D=0d1394d8-9314-4080-aecd-2bc1bd659ef0&amp;odds_numerator%5B0%5D=11&amp;odds_denominator%5B0%5D=5&amp;%24canonical_url=%2Fsport%2Fbaseball%2Forganization%2Funited-states%2Fcompetition%2Fmlb%2Fevent%2F65df1633-793b-49b6-97c7-aa80baf3356f%2Fsection%2Fplayer_props&amp;campaign=betting-integrations&amp;clr=espnbettingintegration&amp;%243p=a_espn&amp;customer_campaign=article&amp;%7Echannel=espn-content&amp;tags=MLB\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">UNDER 4.5 K (+120)<\/a><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/><\/strong><br \/><b>Projection:<\/b> 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.70 EV<br \/><b>One reason to bet this:<\/b> The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the second-highest level on the slate at 90 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).<\/p>\n<p><b><a data-player-guid=\"cc9ee364-ac21-3540-ab45-3fee5fe359d1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/player\/_\/id\/4717803\/hunter-brown\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Hunter Brown<\/a><\/b> | <a href=\"https:\/\/espnbet.app.link\/integrations?market_selection_id%5B0%5D=c68aae03-e49e-4bcb-9dbf-a49608415caa&amp;odds_numerator%5B0%5D=2&amp;odds_denominator%5B0%5D=1&amp;%24canonical_url=%2Fsport%2Fbaseball%2Forganization%2Funited-states%2Fcompetition%2Fmlb%2Fevent%2Fb3308420-c5b8-434e-9573-36cd291d8782%2Fsection%2Fplayer_props&amp;campaign=betting-integrations&amp;clr=espnbettingintegration&amp;%243p=a_espn&amp;customer_campaign=article&amp;%7Echannel=espn-content&amp;tags=MLB\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">UNDER 6.5 K (-100)<\/a><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&amp;h=10\" width=\"10\"\/><\/strong><br \/><b>Projection:<\/b> 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.44 EV<br \/><b>One reason to bet this:<\/b> Brown has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.65 K\/9, despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 10.16. That&#8217;s a 0.49 K\/9 discrepancy.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s top YRFI\/NRFI bets<\/p>\n<p><b>Rays @ Mariners<\/b> | NRFI (-130)<br \/><b>Projection: <\/b>58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.85 EV<\/p>\n<p><b>Blue Jays @ Dodgers<\/b> | YRFI (-125)<br \/><b>Projection: <\/b>57% chance of RUN with a $2.73 EV<\/p>\n<p><b>Phillies @ Rangers<\/b> | NRFI (-130)<br \/><b>Projection: <\/b>57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.99 EV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":129860,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[1266,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-129859","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-mlb","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114994859450517429","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/129860"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}