Don\u2019t bet on an identical sequel.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the implication of a study<\/a> published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The report, coauthored by scientists at Caltech in Pasadena, studied a massive earthquake that ruptured in the southeast Asian country of Myanmar on March 28 \u2014 on a fault known for being eerily similar to the San Andreas. <\/p>\n The earthquake ended up rupturing a much longer section of the fault than scientists expected, given the seismology of the region. <\/p>\n The implications of this study are that \u201cearthquakes never come back exactly the same way,\u201d Solene L. Antoine, a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech and the study\u2019s lead author, said in an interview. <\/p>\n A local man drives a motorbike past a damaged building, in the aftermath of an earthquake in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, on March 30.<\/p>\n (Aung Shine Oo \/ Associated Press)<\/p>\n \u201cIt came as a surprise that you could get such a long rupture,\u201d said Jean-Philippe Avouac, a coauthor of the study and a professor of geology and mechanical and civil engineering at Caltech. <\/p>\n March\u2019s Mandalay earthquake devastated Myanmar, killing at least 3,791 people<\/a> and an additional 63 people in Thailand. High-rise buildings were damaged as far away as Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and homes were damaged in the Ruili area of China. Damage was estimated at $1.9 billion, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.<\/p>\n It was the most powerful earthquake in Myanmar in at least 79 years.<\/p>\n \u201cViolent\u201d and \u201cextreme\u201d shaking, shown in red, was felt all along the 317 miles of the ruptured Sagaing fault in Myanmar during a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in March. <\/p>\n (U.S. Geological Survey)<\/p>\n The magnitude 7.7 earthquake ruptured an astonishing 317 miles of the Sagaing fault, a finding based on Antoine\u2019s analysis of satellite data showing earth movement after the quake. That\u2019s the longest seismic rupture ever documented on a continent. <\/p>\n By comparison, California\u2019s 1906<\/a> earthquake ruptured 296 miles of the San Andreas fault; and the 1857<\/a> earthquake, 225 miles. Longer seismic ruptures have been found only on subduction megathrusts deep underneath the ocean. <\/p>\n What\u2019s clear from the study is that while California\u2019s next \u201cBig One\u201d may share some characteristics of previously documented devastating quakes, it\u2019s unlikely to be an exact replay. As the recent experience in Myanmar shows, even well-documented faults can behave in surprising ways. <\/p>\n The next step is to develop a model simulating earthquakes over many millennia for the San Andreas fault, which the authors plan to do in the future. But the San Andreas fault \u201cis far more complex,\u201d Avouac said. \u201cIt\u2019s not going to come soon, because it\u2019s quite a heavy calculation.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, such simulations would provide a model of \u201call possible scenarios so that we have a better view of the range of possible ruptures that could happen.\u201d <\/p>\n Rescuers work at the site of a high-rise building under construction in Bangkok, Thailand, that collapsed after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake centered in Myanmar on March 28. <\/p>\n (Wason Wanichakorn \/ Associated Press)<\/p>\n For instance, maybe the San Andreas fault will rupture in smaller, separate earthquakes, Avouac said. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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