<\/p>\n
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan\u2019s\u00a0meeting<\/a> in\u00a0Washington on\u00a0August 8 set off a\u00a0wave of\u00a0celebration. The White House called it\u00a0historic, and Western media was quick to\u00a0report that thanks to\u00a0U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s\u00a0mediation, a\u00a0decades-long conflict had finally been put to\u00a0rest. Aliyev and Pashinyan even went so\u00a0far as\u00a0to\u00a0say that Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. But the truth \u2014 believe it\u00a0or\u00a0not \u2014 is\u00a0more complicated. For Meduza, Caucasus expert Roman Chernikov breaks down what really happened at\u00a0the White House summit and what issues the two countries still need to\u00a0resolve.<\/p>\n Little more than a\u00a0photo-op<\/strong><\/p>\n A\u00a0day before Friday\u2019s\u00a0summit in\u00a0Washington, Donald Trump wrote a\u00a0misleading post on\u00a0his Truth Social<\/a> platform calling the meeting an\u00a0\u201cofficial Peace Signing Ceremony.\u201d Major global outlets like Associated Press, CNBC<\/a>, and Euronews<\/a> were quick to\u00a0reprint that wording. In\u00a0reality, however, the two parties only signed a\u00a0declaration containing a\u00a0straightforward and fairly obvious seven-point statement.<\/p>\n The first point reads:<\/p>\n We\u00a0and President Donald\u00a0J. Trump of\u00a0the United States of\u00a0America witnessed the initialing of\u00a0the agreed upon text of\u00a0the Agreement on\u00a0Establishment of\u00a0Peace and Inter-State Relations between the Republic of\u00a0Azerbaijan and the Republic of\u00a0Armenia by\u00a0the Ministers of\u00a0Foreign Affairs of\u00a0the Parties. In\u00a0this respect, we\u00a0acknowledged the need to\u00a0continue further actions to\u00a0achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of\u00a0the Agreement, and emphasized the importance of\u00a0maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries.<\/p>\n The two leaders then initialed the peace treaty, which contains 17 points, to\u00a0indicate they agreed with the text and wouldn\u2019t\u00a0push for any wording changes. However, they still have yet to\u00a0sign it. (The text of\u00a0the document wasn\u2019t\u00a0made public until three days later, on\u00a0August 11.)<\/p>\n Negotiations over the treaty\u2019s\u00a0text have been ongoing since 2020, involving Russia, the European Union, and the United States. At\u00a0one point, there was even talk of\u00a0two separate versions of\u00a0the agreement. But the final text was agreed upon by\u00a0the parties themselves, without mediators, in\u00a0March, when Armenia accepted<\/a> the last two disputed points.<\/p>\n Thus, the White House event was basically just a\u00a0ceremonial gesture \u2014 after all, the two countries\u2019 foreign ministers had already deemed<\/a> the document ready<\/a> five months earlier. When the heads of\u00a0state will actually sign it\u00a0remains unknown.<\/p>\n Baku\u2019s latest \u2018biggest enemy\u2019 Journalist Orkhan Mammad explains how Azerbaijani propaganda weaponized the ongoing diplomatic crisis with Russia<\/a>Baku\u2019s latest \u2018biggest enemy\u2019 Journalist Orkhan Mammad explains how Azerbaijani propaganda weaponized the ongoing diplomatic crisis with Russia<\/a>If\u00a0this wasn\u2019t\u00a0a\u00a0peace treaty signing, why were Aliyev and Pashinyan celebrating Trump?<\/strong><\/p>\n For both Yerevan and Baku, maintaining good relations with Trump is\u00a0important \u2014 so\u00a0that in\u00a0the event of\u00a0renewed tensions, they can appeal to\u00a0him and accuse the other side of\u00a0breaking the agreement\u2019s\u00a0terms. This is\u00a0especially crucial for Armenia, which is\u00a0in\u00a0a\u00a0weaker position. Trump\u2019s\u00a0conviction that the conflict in\u00a0the South Caucasus is\u00a0over serves as\u00a0a\u00a0kind of\u00a0insurance for Yerevan against another war, at\u00a0least for the next three years, until the next U.S. presidential election.<\/p>\n What needs to\u00a0happen for the countries to\u00a0finally sign the real peace treaty?<\/strong><\/p>\n Azerbaijan has two demands of\u00a0Yerevan it\u00a0has never backed down from: dismantling the OSCE Minsk Group, which has mediated the conflict since 1992, and amending Armenia\u2019s\u00a0Constitution, which Baku believes contains territorial claims.<\/p>\n So\u00a0far, there\u2019s\u00a0been some progress only on\u00a0the first demand. Among other documents signed in\u00a0Washington was a\u00a0joint appeal<\/a> from Armenia and Azerbaijan to\u00a0the OSCE, asking to\u00a0dissolve the Minsk Group now that the conflict is\u00a0considered over. But that\u2019s\u00a0not enough \u2014 the final decision will be\u00a0put to\u00a0an\u00a0OSCE foreign ministers\u2019 vote at\u00a0their meeting<\/a> in\u00a0Vienna on\u00a0December 4\u20135. There\u2019s\u00a0little doubt the vote will pass.<\/p>\n The situation with the Armenian Constitution is\u00a0more complicated. Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly shifted his position \u2014 at\u00a0times announcing a\u00a0constitutional referendum<\/a> for 2027, at\u00a0others saying that no\u00a0changes are necessary.<\/p>\n Sign up for\u00a0The\u00a0Beet<\/p>\n Underreported\u00a0stories. Fresh\u00a0perspectives. From\u00a0Budapest to\u00a0Bishkek.<\/p>\n In\u00a0late May, Pashinyan even proposed<\/a> adding another layer of\u00a0review for the peace agreement:<\/p>\n If\u00a0the Constitutional Court decides that the text of\u00a0the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan conflicts with our Constitution, I\u00a0will initiate constitutional amendments, because this peace process and the agreement must not be\u00a0abandoned. We\u00a0will try to\u00a0convince our society to\u00a0make these changes in\u00a0order to\u00a0achieve lasting and durable peace.<\/p>\n This rhetoric is\u00a0mostly populist. Submitting a\u00a0draft peace treaty to\u00a0the Constitutional Court is\u00a0certainly possible, but it\u00a0is\u00a0unlikely to\u00a0convince Azerbaijan\u2019s\u00a0Aliyev. In\u00a0all probability, Pashinyan will still have to\u00a0amend the Constitution \u2014 but he\u00a0will only move on\u00a0it\u00a0after the parliamentary elections in\u00a0June 2026, so\u00a0as\u00a0not to\u00a0damage his approval rating.<\/p>\n Pashinyan\u2019s\u00a0election campaign will likely be\u00a0built on\u00a0the claim that his chosen diplomatic course has brought the country as\u00a0close as\u00a0possible to\u00a0signing a\u00a0peace treaty and securing security guarantees from the most powerful country in\u00a0the world \u2014 the United States. But to\u00a0finish the job, he\u2019ll\u00a0argue, Armenians need to\u00a0give him another term. Only then will the Armenian authorities be\u00a0able to\u00a0proceed with all the unpopular measures (such as\u00a0border delimitation) and prepare for the referendum.<\/p>\n \u2018A\u00a0whole generation has grown up\u00a0independent of\u00a0Russia\u2019 Expert Thomas de\u00a0Waal explains the politics behind Moscow\u2019s\u00a0waning influence in\u00a0the South Caucasus<\/a>\u2018A\u00a0whole generation has grown up\u00a0independent of\u00a0Russia\u2019 Expert Thomas de\u00a0Waal explains the politics behind Moscow\u2019s\u00a0waning influence in\u00a0the South Caucasus<\/a>Will the peace treaty involve Armenia giving up\u00a0Karabakh completely?<\/strong><\/p>\n Yes. The treaty states that both countries confirm \u201cthe boundaries between the Soviet Socialist Republics of\u00a0the former USSR became the international borders of\u00a0respective independent states\u201d and respect one another\u2019s\u00a0territorial integrity. This means Karabakh is\u00a0officially Azerbaijani territory.<\/p>\n Earlier drafts of\u00a0the treaty included rights for Karabakh\u2019s\u00a0Armenian residents, but that was before September 2023 (when Armenia lost control<\/a> of\u00a0Karabakh). Additionally, Azerbaijan insisted<\/a> on\u00a0including<\/a> the right of\u00a0return for Azerbaijanis who were expelled from Armenia at\u00a0the start of\u00a0the conflict in\u00a0the late 1980s and early 1990s.<\/p>\n Another major concern for Armenian society is\u00a0the fate of Armenian prisoners<\/a> held in\u00a0Baku, including former Karabakh leaders and ordinary soldiers whom Azerbaijan refuses to\u00a0classify<\/a> as\u00a0prisoners of\u00a0war because they were detained after November 9, 2020. However, the peace treaty does not guarantee their release \u2014 Baku wants to\u00a0keep that issue for the future as\u00a0a\u00a0political bargaining chip.<\/p>\n What is\u00a0the \u2018Trump Route\u2019 everybody\u2019s\u00a0talking about?<\/strong><\/p>\n That\u2019s\u00a0the new name being used for the \u201cZangezur corridor\u201d<\/a> \u2014 a\u00a0proposed route connecting mainland Azerbaijan to\u00a0the exclave of\u00a0Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. Although its opening isn\u2019t\u00a0mentioned in\u00a0the peace treaty (the issue sparked so\u00a0much controversy that it\u00a0was left out<\/a>), Baku has made it\u00a0clear<\/a> it\u2019s\u00a0not giving up\u00a0on\u00a0the idea.<\/p>\n It\u00a0was the Trump administration that came up\u00a0with a\u00a0proposal that apparently satisfied both Baku and Yerevan. The details remain unclear, but the core idea is\u00a0that an\u00a0American company would manage the Armenian section of\u00a0the road. The project\u2019s\u00a0official name is\u00a0as\u00a0grandiose as\u00a0it\u00a0gets: the Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).<\/p>\n Slowly, then all at once The final act in the tragedy of Nagorno-Karabakh\u2019s collapse<\/a>Slowly, then all at once The final act in the tragedy of Nagorno-Karabakh\u2019s collapse<\/a><\/p>\n The specifics are likely spelled out in\u00a0a\u00a0different document signed<\/a> the same day between Yerevan and Washington \u2014 the \u201cMemorandum of\u00a0Understanding between the Government of\u00a0the Republic of\u00a0Armenia and the Government of\u00a0the United States of\u00a0America on\u00a0Partnership in\u00a0the Field of\u00a0Capacity Development of\u00a0the \u2018Crossroads of\u00a0Peace\u2019 Project.\u201d<\/p>\n The full text hasn\u2019t\u00a0been released yet, but the main demands from each side have long been known. Baku insists traffic along the road must be\u00a0\u201cunimpeded\u201d (a\u00a0word that appears in\u00a0the trilateral declaration), while Yerevan argues it\u00a0can\u2019t\u00a0be\u00a0called a\u00a0\u201ccorridor\u201d and that the road must operate under Armenian law and respect its national sovereignty. How these conflicting points will be\u00a0resolved remains an\u00a0open question.<\/p>\n What does Moscow think of\u00a0the agreement?<\/strong><\/p>\n There\u2019s\u00a0no\u00a0question this agreement is\u00a0a\u00a0sign of\u00a0Russia\u2019s\u00a0waning influence in\u00a0the South Caucasus \u2014\u00a0especially when it\u00a0comes to\u00a0transportation links. After 2020, a\u00a0commission including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk was responsible for reopening roads, and the 2020 agreement ending the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War clearly stated that Russian border guards would control the \u201cZangezur corridor.\u201d But as\u00a0early as\u00a0last fall, officials in\u00a0Yerevan said the commission had effectively stopped working<\/a> \u201cdue to\u00a0a\u00a0lack of\u00a0consensus.\u201d<\/p>\n That said, Russian border guards do\u00a0still play a\u00a0role in\u00a0the region, continuing to\u00a0patrol<\/a> the Armenia\u2013Iran border (though they no\u00a0longer check documents<\/a> at\u00a0the Agarak checkpoint). This means they\u2019ll\u00a0need to\u00a0find a\u00a0way to\u00a0coexist alongside any American presence in\u00a0the region.<\/p>\n \u2018We left everything\u2019 Uprooted and jobless, Nagorno-Karabakh refugees start from scratch in Armenia<\/a>\u2018We left everything\u2019 Uprooted and jobless, Nagorno-Karabakh refugees start from scratch in Armenia<\/a><\/p>\n Relations with Trump are important not only to\u00a0Yerevan and Baku but also to\u00a0Moscow, which is\u00a0why Russia refrained from criticizing the \u201cpeace summit\u201d in\u00a0Washington.<\/p>\n \u201cThe meeting of\u00a0the South Caucasus leaders in\u00a0Washington, facilitated by\u00a0the American side, deserves a\u00a0positive assessment. We\u00a0hope this step will help advance the peace agenda,\u201d said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova. This isn\u2019t\u00a0surprising\u00a0\u2014 Moscow\u2019s\u00a0real influence in\u00a0the region was already lost back in\u00a02023 when Armenians withdrew from Karabakh,<\/p>\n Whether Russia will be\u00a0able to\u00a0use the so-called \u201cTrump Route\u201d for rail connections to\u00a0Turkey and Iran is\u00a0still an\u00a0open question. Nikol Pashinyan himself has already assured Moscow<\/a> that this remains a\u00a0possibility.<\/p>\n What about Iran?<\/strong> Will it\u00a0really accept the \u2018Trump Route\u2019 on\u00a0its border?<\/strong><\/p>\n Iran\u2019s\u00a0reaction to\u00a0the news from Washington has been the toughest<\/a> so\u00a0far. Ali Akbar Velayati, an\u00a0advisor to\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0Supreme Leader, said Iranian territory could continue to\u00a0be\u00a0used to\u00a0connect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, and added that he\u00a0would oppose the creation of\u00a0the \u201cTrump Route,\u201d whether Russia is\u00a0involved or\u00a0not. \u201cNATO wants to\u00a0wedge itself between Russia and Iran like a\u00a0viper, but Iran won\u2019t\u00a0allow it,\u201d he\u00a0said.<\/p>\n It\u2019s\u00a0worth noting that right now, an\u00a0Iranian company is\u00a0building<\/a> a\u00a0road in\u00a0Armenia\u2019s\u00a0Syunik province meant to\u00a0connect the country\u2019s\u00a0north and south<\/a>. This means that sooner or\u00a0later, Iranian builders will have to\u00a0come face-to-face with the American company managing the Trump Road (their routes are almost perpendicular). How these roads intersect will be\u00a0an\u00a0important engineering and political challenge.<\/p>\n Sign up for Meduza\u2019s daily newsletter<\/p>\n A digest of Russia\u2019s investigative reports and news analysis. If it matters, we summarize it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan\u2019s\u00a0meeting in\u00a0Washington on\u00a0August 8 set off a\u00a0wave of\u00a0celebration. The…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":139375,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[50,103,1796,1791,1794,1783,1776,1788,1778,1789,1795,1784,1772,1779,1773,1781,1782,1774,1777,1775,1793,1787,1780,1792,1790,1786,1785],"class_list":{"0":"post-139374","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-world","10":"tag-1796","11":"tag-1791","12":"tag-1794","13":"tag-1783","14":"tag-1776","15":"tag-1788","16":"tag-1778","17":"tag-1789","18":"tag-1795","19":"tag-1784","20":"tag-1772","21":"tag-1779","22":"tag-1773","23":"tag-1781","24":"tag-1782","25":"tag-1774","26":"tag-1777","27":"tag-1775","28":"tag-1793","29":"tag-1787","30":"tag-1780","31":"tag-1792","32":"tag-1790","33":"tag-1786","34":"tag-1785"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115015224145354069","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/139375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}