A decade and a half after California voters stripped lawmakers of the ability to draw the boundaries of congressional districts, Gov. Gavin Newsom and fellow Democrats are pushing to take that partisan power back. <\/p>\n
The redistricting plan taking shape in Sacramento and headed toward voters in November could shift the Golden State\u2019s political landscape for at least six years, if not longer, and sway which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections \u2014 which will be pivotal to the fate of President Trump\u2019s political agenda.<\/p>\n
What Golden State voters choose to do will reverberate nationwide, killing some political careers and launching others, provoking other states to reconfigure their own congressional districts and boosting Newsom\u2019s profile as a top Trump nemesis and leader of the nation\u2019s Democratic resistance. <\/p>\n
The new maps, drawn by Democratic strategists and lawmakers behind closed doors, were submitted to legislative leaders by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Friday. They are expected to appear on a Nov. 4 special election ballot, along with a constitutional amendment that would override the state\u2019s voter-approved, independent redistricting commission.<\/p>\n
The changes would ripple across hundreds of miles of California, from the forests near the Oregon state line through the deserts of Death Valley and Palm Springs to the U.S.-Mexico border, expanding Democrats\u2019 grip on California and further isolating Republicans. <\/p>\n
The proposed map would concentrate Republican voters in a handful of deep-red districts and eliminate an Inland Empire congressional seat represented by the longest-serving member of California\u2019s GOP delegation. For Democrats, the plans would boost the fortunes of up-and-coming politicians and shore up vulnerable incumbents in Congress, including two new lawmakers who won election by fewer than 1,000 votes last fall. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the final declaration of political war between California and the Trump administration,\u201d said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. <\/p>\n
How will the ballot measure work?<\/p>\n
For the state to reverse the independent redistricting process that the electorate approved in 2010, a majority of California voters would have to approve the measure, which backers are calling the \u201cElection Rigging Response Act.\u201d <\/p>\n
The state Legislature, where Democrats hold a supermajority in both the Assembly and Senate, will consider the ballot language next week when lawmakers return from summer recess. Both chambers would need to pass the ballot language by a two-thirds majority and get the bill to Newsom\u2019s desk by Aug. 22, leaving just enough time for voter guides to be mailed and ballots to be printed.<\/p>\n
The ballot language has not been released. But the decision about approving the new map would ultimately be up to the state\u2019s electorate, which backed independent redistricting in 2010 by more than 61%. Registered Democrats outnumber Republican voters by almost a two-to-one margin in California, providing a decided advantage for supporters of the measure.<\/p>\n
Newsom has said that the measure would include a \u201ctrigger,\u201d meaning the state\u2019s maps would only take effect if a Republican state \u2014 including Texas, Florida and Indiana \u2014 approve new mid-decade maps. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s still an exit ramp,\u201d Newsom said. \u201cWe\u2019re hopeful they don\u2019t move forward.\u201d <\/p>\n
Explaining the esoteric concept of redistricting and getting voters to participate in an off-year election will require that Newsom and his allies, including organized labor, launch what is expected to be an expensive campaign very quickly. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s summer in California,\u201d Kousser said. \u201cPeople are not focused on this.\u201d<\/p>\n
California has no limit on campaign contributions for ballot measures, and a measure that pits Democrats against Trump, and Republicans against Newsom, could become a high-stakes, high-cost national brawl. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s tens of millions of dollars, and it\u2019s going to be determined on the basis of what an opposition looks like as well,\u201d Newsom said Thursday. The fundraising effort, he said, is \u201cnot insignificant… considering the 90-day sprint.\u201d <\/p>\n
The ballot measure\u2019s campaign website<\/a> mentions three major funding sources thus far: Newsom\u2019s gubernatorial campaign, the main political action committee for House Democrats in Washington, and Manhattan Beach businessman Bill Bloomfield, a longtime donor<\/a> to California Democrats.<\/p>\n Those who oppose the mid-decade redistricting are also expected to be well-funded, and will argue that this effort betrays the will of the voters who approved independent congressional redistricting in 2010.<\/p>\n What\u2019s at stake?<\/p>\n Control of the U.S. House of Representatives hangs in the balance. <\/p>\n The party that holds the White House tends to lose House seats during the midterm election. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House, and Democrats taking control of chamber in 2026 would stymie Trump\u2019s controversial, right-wing agenda in his final two years in office. <\/p>\n Redistricting typically only happens once a decade, after the U.S. census. But Trump has been prodding Republican states, starting with Texas, to redraw their lines in the middle of the decade to boost the GOP\u2019s chances in the midterms.<\/p>\n At Trump\u2019s encouragement, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called a special legislative session to redraw the Texas congressional map to favor five more Republicans. In response, Newsom and other California Democrats have called for their own maps that would favor five more Democrats. <\/p>\n Texas Democratic lawmakers fled the state to deny the Legislature a quorum and stop the vote. They faced daily fines, death threats and calls to be removed from office. They agreed to return to Austin after the special session ended on Friday, with one condition being that California Democrats moved forward with their redistricting plan.<\/p>\n The situation has the potential to spiral into an all-out redistricting arms race, with Trump leaning on Indiana, Florida, Ohio and Missouri to redraw their maps, while Newsom is asking the same of blue states including New York and Illinois. <\/p>\n California Republicans in the crosshairs<\/p>\n The California gerrymandering plan targets five of California\u2019s nine Republican members of Congress: Reps. Kevin Kiley and Doug LaMalfa in Northern California, Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, and Reps. Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa in Southern California.<\/p>\n The map consolidates Republican voters into a smaller number of ruby-red districts known as \u201cvote sinks.\u201d Some conservative and rural areas would be shifted into districts where Republican voters would be diluted by high voter registration advantage for Democrats. <\/p>\n The biggest change would be for Calvert, who would see his Inland Empire district eliminated. <\/p>\n Calvert has been in Congress since 1992 and represents a sprawling Riverside County district that includes Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Palm Springs and his home base of Corona. Calvert, who oversees defense spending on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, comfortably won reelection last year despite a well-funded national campaign by Democrats.<\/p>\n Under the proposed map, the Inland Empire district would be carved up and redistributed, parceled out to a district represented by Rep. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills). Liberal Palm Springs would be shifted into the district represented by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall), which would help tilt the district from Republican to a narrowly divided swing seat. <\/p>\n Members of Congress are not required to live in their districts, but there would not be an obvious seat for Calvert to run for, unless he ran against Kim or Issa. <\/p>\n Leaked screenshots of the map began to circulate Friday afternoon, prompting fierce and immediate pushback from California Republicans.<\/p>\n The lines are \u201cthird-world dictator stuff,\u201d Orange County GOP chair Will O\u2019Neill said on X, and the \u201cslicing and dicing of Orange County cities is obscene.\u201d <\/p>\n In Northern California, the boundaries of Kiley\u2019s district would shrink and dogleg into the Sacramento suburbs to add registered Democrats. Kiley said in a post on the social media site X that he expected his district to stay the same because voters would \u201cdefeat Newsom\u2019s sham initiative and vindicate the will of California voters.\u201d<\/p>\n LaMalfa\u2019s district would shift south, away from the rural and conservative areas along the Oregon border, and pick up more liberal areas in parts of Sonoma County,<\/p>\n In Central California, boundaries would shift to shore up Reps. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) and Adam Gray (D-Merced). Gray won election last year by 187 votes, the narrowest margin in the country. <\/p>\n Valadao, a perennial target for Democrats, would see the northern boundary of his district stretch into the bluer suburbs of Fresno. Democrats have tried for years to unseat Valadao, who represents a district that has a strong Democratic voter registration advantage on paper, but where turnout among blue voters is lackluster.<\/p>\n Democrats eye open seats<\/p>\n The maps include a new congressional seat in Los Angeles County that would stretch through the southeast cities of Downey, Santa Fe Springs, Whittier and Lakewood. An open seat in Congress is a rare opportunity for politicians, especially in deep-blue Los Angeles County, where incumbent lawmakers can keep their jobs for decades. <\/p>\n