{"id":157533,"date":"2025-08-19T04:47:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T04:47:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/157533\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T04:47:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T04:47:14","slug":"traders-tilt-bearish-on-august-btc-eth-targets-as-retail-lags-institutions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/157533\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders Tilt Bearish on August BTC, ETH Targets as Retail Lags Institutions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.<\/a><\/p>\n

As East Asia begins its trading day, BTC is trading at $116,263, down 1.1% on the day and 2% lower on the week, according to CoinDesk market data, while ETH sits at $4,322, off 3.8% in the last 24 hours but still up 2.6% weekly.<\/p>\n

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest crypto assets, is down 2.4%.<\/p>\n

Polymarket odds<\/a> suggest traders are bracing for weakness through the end of August. The most likely outcome for BTC is now a close below $111,000 with a 34% probability, while ETH\u2019s highest-weighted scenario is a finish near $4,800 at 43%.<\/p>\n

Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, said the market is being pulled in two directions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market remains caught between strong underlying institutional conviction, highlighted by Strategy Inc.\u2019s additional 430 BTC purchase and structural financing shift, and a lack of immediate retail follow-through,\u201d it wrote in a note to CoinDesk.<\/p>\n

Enflux pointed to VanEck\u2019s reiterated $180,000 year-end bitcoin target as evidence that institutions are positioning for continuation, even as retail-favored narratives such as XRP and DOGE have been capped by the SEC\u2019s delays on ETF approvals.<\/p>\n

Solana remains an exception, Enflux wrote, with \u201cquiet strength\u201d from its dominance in USDC transfers and PumpFun\u2019s share of new token issuance.<\/p>\n

Still, derivatives positioning shows caution.<\/p>\n

QCP reported in a recent market update<\/a> that perpetual funding rates turned negative over the weekend, a setup that preceded earlier pullbacks, and options skews now favor puts across maturities.<\/p>\n

The result is a market that looks structurally supported at the top but tactically defensive into Thursday\u2019s Jackson Hole symposium<\/a>, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address policy under the weight of higher-than-expected inflation<\/a> and a White House that continues to challenge the Fed’s neutrality<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With crypto search<\/a> interest<\/a> at a four-year high and the GENIUS Act sailing through Washington, and now in the hands of regulators<\/a>, the foundation for a broader rally is still being built.<\/p>\n

But for now, prediction markets and price action suggest conviction is concentrated at the top, while flows remain selective.<\/p>\n

\"(CoinDesk)\"<\/p>\n

(CoinDesk) <\/p>\n

Market Movers<\/strong><\/p>\n

BTC: <\/strong>Bitcoin swung between $114,993 and $117,620 on August 18, with volumes far above average as traders digested Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent\u2019s clarification that strategic reserves would be filled through budget-neutral acquisitions rather than direct government purchases as well as anticipated the upcoming Jackson Hole summit where Jerome Powell is expected to outline the case for keeping rates as is.<\/p>\n

ETH: <\/strong>Ethereum fell 3% to $4,330.61 on Aug. 18 amid heavy volatility and repeated resistance near record highs, even as U.S. spot ETFs drew $3.71 billion of inflows in stark contrast to ongoing retail selling.<\/p>\n

Gold: <\/strong>Gold hovered near $3,333\u2013$3,394 an ounce Monday, rising in early U.S. trading as position-squaring set in ahead of the Fed\u2019s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell may hint at September rate cuts, while traders also weighed U.S.-Ukraine diplomacy and broader geopolitical uncertainties shaping haven demand.<\/p>\n

Nikkei 225: <\/strong>Asia-Pacific stocks mostly slipped Tuesday ahead of White House talks between Trump, Zelenskyy and European leaders, though Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% and the Topix was flat.<\/p>\n

S&P 500:<\/strong> U.S. stocks were little changed Monday as the summer rally showed signs of fatigue ahead of Fed minutes, major retail earnings, and Jerome Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole speech later this week.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere in Crypto<\/strong><\/p>\n