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Majority Of Voters Say City Is Headed in the Wrong Direction; Affordability, Housing, and Safety Top Concerns<\/p>\n
Poll Shows Mamdani Maintains a Commanding Lead Across Most Demographics and in Every \u201cDrop-Out\u201d Scenario, But Older Undecided Voters Could Emerge as Key Swing Bloc<\/p>\n
To view crosstabs, click here<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n EN ESPA\u00d1OL<\/b> <\/a>| NEW YORK \u2014<\/b> Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani leads the field in the race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll of registered voters conducted by AARP New York and Gotham Polling& Analytics. In the initial ballot test, Mamdani received 41.8%<\/b> support, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo (23.4%<\/b>), Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa (16.5%<\/b>), Mayor Eric Adams (8.8%<\/b>), and other candidates (1.6%<\/b>), with 7.9%<\/b> undecided.<\/p>\n According to the poll, Mamdani secures just over half of Democrats (51.6%), while Cuomo captures nearly a quarter (24%). The rest of the field remains in single digits. Among Republicans, Sliwa gets over half the vote, with Cuomo and Adams splitting much of the remainder.<\/p>\n The poll also explored a unique set of \u201cdrop-out\u201d scenarios to assess how the race would shift if one or more candidates were to exit. In every scenario tested, Mamdani maintains a commanding lead over the remaining contenders. Notable shifts included:<\/p>\n Undecided Voters<\/b> In this matchup \u2014 with Mayor Eric Adams, Curtis Sliwa, and Jim Walden removed from the ballot \u2014 Cuomo attracts the most support from independents. The undecided voters are overwhelmingly older: just 5% are ages 18 to 34, and 18% are 35 to 49, while nearly eight in ten are over 50 \u2014 31% are between 50 and 64, and 46% are 65 or older. Partisan affiliation is also split, with nearly half of undecideds (49%) identifying as Democrats and about one-third (33%) as Republicans, while the remainder are non-partisan (13%) or affiliated with another party (5%).<\/p>\n City Direction & Future Outlook<\/b>Voters express significant dissatisfaction with New York City\u2019s current trajectory. Only 9.2%<\/b> say the city is headed in the \u201cright direction,\u201d while a majority \u2014 52.7%<\/b> \u2014 believe it is going in the \u201cwrong direction\u201d. Another 35.8%<\/b> offered mixed views, and 2.2%<\/b> had no opinion.<\/p>\n Looking ahead, 30.6%<\/b> are \u201cvery optimistic\u201d that with the right leadership, the city\u2019s future can improve, and 28.6%<\/b> are \u201csomewhat optimistic.\u201d Meanwhile, 21.0%<\/b> are \u201csomewhat pessimistic\u201d and 7.4%<\/b> are \u201cvery pessimistic\u201d about the city\u2019s prospects. A further 12.3%<\/b> remain unsure.<\/p>\n Consistent with past polls, the cost of living dominates voter concerns across every income bracket. Affordability (61.3%)<\/b> stands out as the top issue citywide, followed closely by public safety (53.9%) <\/b>and housing availability (38.9%).<\/b> Voters also raised concerns tied directly to cost pressures, including education expenses, transit affordability, and healthcare costs. Taken together, these findings underscore that financial strain is the defining issue shaping voter sentiment in the 2025 mayoral race.<\/p>\n Demographic Breakdown of Support The poll also reveals important differences in candidate support across demographic groups. Mamdani leads across nearly all racial and ethnic categories, with particularly strong backing among Black (48%), Hispanic (45%), and East or South Asian (48%) voters. He also holds a plurality among White non-Hispanic voters (44%). Cuomo performs best among Jewish voters, earning 38% compared to Mamdani\u2019s 22%. Sliwa\u2019s strongest support comes from Hispanic (20%) and White non-Hispanic (21%) voters, while Adams garners modest support among Black voters (13%).<\/p>\n \u201cNew Yorkers are telling the candidates loud and clear \u2014 show us your plan to make the city livable and affordable, and you\u2019ll earn our vote,\u201d said Beth Finkel<\/b>, AARP New York State Director. \u201cOlder voters especially, who turn out at the highest rates, want real solutions to help them stay in the homes and communities they built and make great.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cMamdani sits on a hard floor around forty percent but likely to have a firm ceiling below a majority – in a split field that\u2019s enough to stay ahead. Cuomo has the best path of the challengers, but even in a hypothetical one-on-one in an election that often favors lower-turnout, older electorates, he still trails by double digits. The opening for a comeback is the sizeable uncommitted bloc in the consolidation tests – roughly 11% to 35% depending on who drops – which means a disciplined persuasion campaign could still make this a race,\u201d said Stephen Graves<\/b>, President, Gotham Polling & Analytics.<\/p>\n Candidate Favorability<\/b> This Gotham Polling & Analytics<\/b> Poll, sponsored by AARP New York<\/b>, was fielded August 11, 2025 among 1,376 likely voters<\/b> in New York City. Respondents were invited by SMS text to complete a self-administered web survey (English only). The margin of error for this survey is +\/-3.2 percentage points. The full methodology report and annotated questionnaire is available here: <\/b>AARP NYC Mayoral Poll 2025.<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n Connect with AARP New York on X: @AARPNY<\/a>, Facebook: AARP New York<\/a> and LinkedIn: AARP New York<\/a><\/p>\n About AARP<\/b> ###<\/p>\n\n
In a head-to-head matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, 27% of voters remain undecided. This bloc is mainly made up of older New Yorkers split between Democrats and Republicans, making it a pivotal group that could tip the balance of the race.<\/p>\n
The poll reveals a range of public sentiment toward the leading candidates:<\/p>\n\n
AARP is the nation’s largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name.\u00a0As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation’s largest circulation publications,\u00a0AARP The Magazine\u00a0and\u00a0AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org\/about-aarp\/<\/a>, www.aarp.org\/espa\u00f1o<\/a>l or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspa\u00f1ol and @AARPadvocates on social media.<\/p>\n