If you could sum up the U.S. economic picture for the first half of 2025 in one word, it might be \u201cuncertainty.\u201d <\/p>\n
But while some sectors of the business world are seeing a pullback because of uncertainty, Alabama\u2019s economic picture continues to show growth. <\/p>\n
That was the consensus of the voices gathered Tuesday for an economic outlook summit by Regions Financial in Huntsville. <\/p>\n
Regions\u2019 Chief Economist Richard Moody, Chief Investment Officer Alan McKnight and Sean Kelly, the commercial banking leader and executive for the Huntsville market, gave their thoughts on the current picture as we head into the fall. <\/p>\n
Why \u201cuncertainty?\u201d <\/p>\n
Consumer spending and employment continue to show a resilient economy, but inflation is stubbornly holding on. <\/p>\n
Couple that with a cloudy picture provided by tariffs, and it\u2019s difficult to size up corporate and consumer behavior. <\/p>\n
Let\u2019s look at Alabama first. <\/p>\n
McKnight said Alabama is not seeing some of the corporate pullback apparent in other parts of the U.S. For example, motor manufacturing, aircraft and shipbuilding are sectors that have remained resilient. <\/p>\n
And, as Moody noted, Huntsville has become a low-cost alternative to other Southern metros, such as Nashville, Atlanta and Charlotte. \\<\/p>\n
That has made the Rocket City not as reliant on government contracts. A highly skilled work force and lower costs of living are still attractive propositions. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe vibrant domestic migration really slowed in Atlanta, and we did not see that here,\u201d Moody said. \u201cWe actually saw it increase a little bit.\u201d<\/p>\n
And while there may be some measure of uncertainty nationally, businesses are continuing to invest locally, Kelly said. <\/p>\n
In fact, Moody said, uncertainty may not leave as big a mark as some anticipated earlier in the year. <\/p>\n
Back in January, economists were projecting about 2% growth for year, after several years of 3% to 4%, with inflation holding on. <\/p>\n
Several expected the Trump Administration to tackle tax and spending issues, relax some regulations and then enact the tariffs that President Trump heralded during the campaign. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt kind of ended up being the reverse,\u201d Moody said. <\/p>\n
Economists also didn\u2019t anticipate the scale of the Trump Administration\u2019s decision to impose a wide-ranging schedule of tariffs on a host of nations at the same time, then pull some of them back, while imposing still more, which clouded the forecasts. <\/p>\n
Yet the pace of layoffs hasn\u2019t quickened, and the tariffs haven\u2019t yet been reflected to a large scale in prices. <\/p>\n
So, after all that, 2% growth still feels accurate. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt hasn\u2019t played out exactly as we thought but we still think we\u2019ll end up in very much the same place (at the end of the year),\u201d Moody said. <\/p>\n
But there\u2019s still enough uncertainty to go around. Take yesterday\u2019s earnings call with The Home Depot. <\/p>\n
The home-improvement retailer previously said it wouldn\u2019t raise prices as a result of tariffs, but announced there would be some increases on products. <\/p>\n
As for what it\u2019s seeing, the company said consumers aren\u2019t canceling big home-improvement projects as much as deferring them, according to The Wall Street Journal<\/a>. <\/p>\n McKnight said one factor to watch through the rest of the year is how much cost related to tariffs retailers are willing to pass on to customers. Moody agreed. <\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t expect them to keep taking that hit,\u201d he said. \u201cYeah, the economy has remained resilient, but we have yet to see the full impact of higher tariffs.\u201d <\/p>\n If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement<\/a> and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and\/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If you could sum up the U.S. economic picture for the first half of 2025 in one word,…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":161685,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[33398,30014,64,79,33147,2824,6141,8743,9260,93614,67,132,68,527],"class_list":{"0":"post-161684","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-aerial","9":"tag-al","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-fountain","13":"tag-outdoors","14":"tag-park","15":"tag-river","16":"tag-scene","17":"tag-scenic","18":"tag-united-states","19":"tag-unitedstates","20":"tag-us","21":"tag-water"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115062374924281304","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161684\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}