{"id":16371,"date":"2025-06-26T13:24:12","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T13:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/16371\/"},"modified":"2025-06-26T13:24:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T13:24:12","slug":"mlb-trade-deadline-tiers-1-0-from-buyers-to-sellers-to-the-al-central","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/16371\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB trade deadline tiers 1.0: From buyers to sellers to\u2026 the AL Central?"},"content":{"rendered":"

One side effect of MLB expanding the playoff field to 12 teams in 2022 was a big decrease in obvious trade deadline \u201csellers\u201d and a big increase in the murky middle, where even sub-.500 teams can see a path to October \u2014 even if they aren\u2019t necessarily incentivized to push all of their chips into the middle as \u201cbuyers.\u201d<\/p>\n

With roughly five weeks until this season\u2019s July 31 trade deadline, 21 of 30 teams began this week with playoff odds above 20 percent, according to FanGraphs<\/a>, and more than half of the league has at least a one-in-three shot of reaching the postseason. But we know that many of those teams with decent odds in June won\u2019t be aggressive buyers.<\/p>\n

Our goal today is to group the 30 teams into trade deadline tiers based on whether they should be buying or selling, and how aggressively they should act within that overall approach. We\u2019ll update the tiers as the deadline nears, with more of a focus on individual team outlooks in the days leading up to July 31.<\/p>\n

Tier 1: Could be (should be?) aggressive buyers<\/p>\n

The Tigers, Dodgers and Yankees are the only teams in baseball with a better than 95 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, but the Phillies and (until very recently) the Mets aren\u2019t far behind. The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are the sport\u2019s biggest spenders, and all three reached the LCS last season. They\u2019re clearly all-in on championship ambition. The Tigers are financial outliers, but they\u2019re another historic franchise, and they\u2019ve made a case \u2014 at least at times \u2014 for being the best in baseball this season. After almost a decade of irrelevance, there should be no lack of motivation to make moves and reassert themselves as serious threats to win a championship.<\/p>\n

Then, there are the Phillies. A recent hot streak has put them neck-and-neck with the recently scuffling Mets atop the NL East, as the playoff odds having climbed considerably in the past week. But even before the climb, the Phillies were firmly in Tier 1 territory. They are still firmly within their window of opportunity, but Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are approaching free agency, while Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are playing their age-32 seasons, and Zack Wheeler has already turned 35. The Phillies have been in the championship mix for four years now, and the clock\u2019s ticking to finally win one. An outfielder? A closer? A third baseman? All of the above? The Phillies should be as committed as anyone to building a roster with a chance.<\/p>\n

Tier 2: Typical buyers<\/p>\n

Basically, these teams look like standard trade deadline buyers: imperfect rosters with needs to address, but still with reasons to believe that a deep October run is possible.<\/p>\n

The Cubs and Astros have excellent playoff odds at the moment, but they feel a little less all-in than the teams in Tier 1. The playoff odds aren\u2019t nearly as good for the Mariners and Padres, but each has gone through stretches when a meaningful October seemed likely, and they haven\u2019t fallen far enough to think of them as sellers just yet. (If the Padres, in particular, get to that point, the impact on the trade deadline could be massive given the chips they could move.)<\/p>\n

But what to do with the Giants? They\u2019ve already made a Tier 1 move by trading for Rafael Devers. Does that make the Giants an unmistakable Tier 1 team, or was Devers a special case putting them firmly in Tier 2 territory now that they\u2019ve made their splash? Despite being aggressive early, we find it difficult to think of the Giants as one of the teams most likely to be super aggressive a month from now.<\/p>\n

Tier 3: Trending to the buy side<\/p>\n

Not so long ago, it would have been perfectly valid to declare any one of these teams dead in the water. The Brewers\u2019 playoff odds slipped to 10 percent last month, the Rays got down to 11 percent, and the Blue Jays had only briefly risen above 45 percent \u2014 and they were mostly in the 30s \u2014 until just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n

Are any of these three all-in buyers? Probably not. At least, not right now. The Brewers\u2019 odds are still relatively underwhelming (40 percent or so), and both the Blue Jays and Rays have been in playoff contention for only a short amount of time. But things are trending in a good direction for all three. It\u2019s at least worth wondering if they might hold onto Rhys Hoskins, Bo Bichette and Pete Fairbanks, and maybe even add a little bit at the deadline. Too early for any one of these teams to commit one way or the other, but they\u2019ve put themselves back in the mix.<\/p>\n

Tier 4: Tailors<\/p>\n

These three teams seem most clearly stuck between a short-term opportunity and a long-term plan. The Cardinals came into this season with a stated goal to rebuild, but have largely outperformed expectations. The Diamondbacks are very much alive, but they\u2019re in a tough division, haven\u2019t pitched as well as expected, and already lost Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery. And this week, Corbin Carroll hit the IL with a chip fracture in his left wrist.<\/p>\n

The Red Sox had a young position core to begin with and have called up each of their top three prospects, but they\u2019re still struggling to get above .500 (and, most notably, they\u2019ve already traded away their best hitter).<\/p>\n

There\u2019s little sense that any of these three teams is in position to completely rip their rosters apart \u2014 the Red Sox and Diamondbacks in particular are built around young hitters who aren\u2019t going to be traded, and the Cardinals\u2019 playoff odds aren\u2019t all that different from the Brewers and Padres \u2014 but each could be selective in who they trade and how they reinforce. The Red Sox and Cardinals could trade their closers (Aroldis Chapman and Ryan Helsley) for a meaningful return, while entrusting the ninth inning to someone younger. The Diamondbacks could deal slugging third baseman Eugenio Su\u00e1rez, while opening the position for top prospect Jordan Lawlar.<\/p>\n

Tier 5: The AL Central<\/p>\n

We\u2019re dumping the middle of the AL Central into its own tier because, well, just look at this playoff odds graphic<\/a> from FanGraphs.<\/p>\n

The Tigers, clearly, have separated themselves at the top of the division, and the White Sox are practically invisible at the bottom, and in the middle are these three teams. They\u2019re not exactly trending up \u2014 quite the opposite \u2014 but they\u2019ve not exactly dropped out, either. The AL wild-card race is going to twist and turn a lot in the next few months, and it\u2019s conceivable that one of these AL Central teams will get hot and decide to go for it while another will turn cold and decide to sell. A third could attempt to thread the needle.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess which of these teams will end up in which category.<\/p>\n

Tier 6: Trending to the sell side<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve spent three months waiting for the Braves and Rangers to make a run. Their rosters have plenty of talent, including remnants of recent championships, but it just hasn\u2019t happened. Both have a positive run differential but a losing record, and now Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle are on the IL. Time is running out for a couple of preseason favorites to actually make a case for being buyers at the deadline.<\/p>\n

The Reds weren\u2019t preseason darlings, but they did seem to have a shot in a wide-open NL Central. They have a positive run differential \u2014 which would suggest the possibility of being a playoff team \u2014 but they\u2019re only a bit over.500 and just haven\u2019t gained much traction this season. Their playoff odds have been consistently in the single digits. Maybe they could be more tailors than sellers, but it would be hard to justify mortgaging the future for a last-ditch effort in the present.<\/p>\n

Tier 7: Typical sellers<\/p>\n

The main thing keeping these teams out of the lowest tier is: what are they going to sell? The A\u2019s most valuable assets are young players who don\u2019t cost a ton of money, the White Sox sold last summer and are once again bare \u2014 Luis Robert Jr. has been worse than last season, and their best player might be Rule 5 pick Shane Smith \u2014 and the Pirates are understandably unwilling to trade Paul Skenes.<\/p>\n

So, these three teams are clearly out of contention, but they\u2019re also in a position to sell in a fairly typical way. They\u2019ll surely try to move some veterans, but their most valuable trade chips either aren\u2019t that valuable or are young enough to hold onto for the future.<\/p>\n

Tier 8: Could be (should be) aggressive sellers<\/p>\nTeamChips<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

CF, SP, DH<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

3B, RP, UT<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

SP, CL, LF<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

SP, OF, RP<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

1B, UT, CL<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Most of this final tier could have been predicted five months ago. There was, perhaps, hope that the Nationals or Angels would show some improvement, but it wouldn\u2019t have been shocking to know they\u2019d be firmly in sell mode five weeks before the trade deadline. The Marlins are obviously rebuilding, and the Rockies have been doing \u2026 something. They should be rebuilding. They should be selling. But history suggests they\u2019ll once again sit at the bottom of the NL West and do very little to actually move the needle at the deadline.<\/p>\n

The Orioles are the big surprise. Sure, there was every reason to question their rotation heading into the season, but it\u2019s been worse than even the most pessimistic of predictions, and the young core of position players hasn\u2019t hit enough to lift them out of the muck. Those young players, though, do give the Orioles reason to believe in a quick return to relevance, meaning a massive fire sale of anyone not bolted down for next season \u2014 Cedric Mullins, Zack Eflin, Ryan O\u2019Hearn, Ram\u00f3n Laureano, and others \u2014 feels inevitable.<\/p>\n

(Top illustration by Kelsea Peterson \/ The Athletic; Photos by Thearon Henderson, Matthew Grimes, Mark Blinch \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One side effect of MLB expanding the playoff field to 12 teams in 2022 was a big decrease…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":16372,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[1279,1280,1276,1281,1271,1274,5048,1282,1283,1885,2382,1284,1285,2502,1286,4247,1287,1266,1305,2228,5055,2083,1886,1306,1275,1288,62,3692,1289,1278,1290,67,132,68,1291],"class_list":{"0":"post-16371","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-arizona-diamondbacks","9":"tag-atlanta-braves","10":"tag-baltimore-orioles","11":"tag-boston-red-sox","12":"tag-chicago-cubs","13":"tag-chicago-white-sox","14":"tag-cincinnati-reds","15":"tag-cleveland-guardians","16":"tag-colorado-rockies","17":"tag-detroit-tigers","18":"tag-houston-astros","19":"tag-kansas-city-royals","20":"tag-los-angeles-angels","21":"tag-los-angeles-dodgers","22":"tag-miami-marlins","23":"tag-milwaukee-brewers","24":"tag-minnesota-twins","25":"tag-mlb","26":"tag-new-york-mets","27":"tag-new-york-yankees","28":"tag-oakland-athletics","29":"tag-philadelphia-phillies","30":"tag-pittsburgh-pirates","31":"tag-san-diego-padres","32":"tag-san-francisco-giants","33":"tag-seattle-mariners","34":"tag-sports","35":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","36":"tag-tampa-bay-rays","37":"tag-texas-rangers","38":"tag-toronto-blue-jays","39":"tag-united-states","40":"tag-unitedstates","41":"tag-us","42":"tag-washington-nationals"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}