<\/p>\n
Icicles hang down from a Texas vehicle during a winter storm that occurred last January, when a weak La Nina event also was underway.<\/p>\n
Brett Coomer\/Staff photographer<\/p>\n
This summer has been memorable for what we did not see: A persistent heat dome parked over the Lone Star State, driving weeks of triple-digit heat. Instead, a series of storm systems<\/a> brought intermittent showers and thunderstorms<\/a> throughout the season.\u00a0<\/p>\n The milder weather pattern reflects a neutral phase of the El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation<\/a>, which occurs in the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. This means that neither La Ni\u00f1a (the cooling phase) nor\u00a0El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o (the warming phase) was present and did not steer our summer weather pattern to the extremes with drought or heat.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n But what does all of that mean? How does this affect us in Austin and Central Texas? Let\u2019s break it down:<\/p>\n 1. El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a can drive weather globally\u00a0<\/p>\n ENSO is a global climate driver that can significantly influence the weather in the United States, especially in winter. Because the atmosphere is an interconnected system across the globe, weather events in one spot can have a ripple effect in another part of the world.<\/p>\n With\u00a0ENSO, you\u2019re seeing significant sea-surface temperature changes, which are the result of major shifts in heat energy, in the world\u2019s largest ocean that contains most of the planet\u2019s water. So, it should be no surprise that El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a events in the eastern Pacific can affect Texas weather.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n 2. La \u00a0Ni\u00f1a watch is underway through winter<\/p>\n This is important now because the latest update from the forecast team at the National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center narrowly favors a gentle shift from ENSO-neutral to La Ni\u00f1a conditions<\/a> by this fall and winter, which means that the tropical waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean are forecast to be colder than average by 1 degree.\u00a0<\/p>\n The latest forecast shows La Ni\u00f1a emerging for fall and into early winter before neutral conditions take over again next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Climate Prediction Center<\/p>\n They state that the La Ni\u00f1a thresholds are being reached in three overlapping, three-month seasons, and now has placed the United States under a La Nina watch.<\/a> This is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a conditions within the next six months.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n 3. La Ni\u00f1a can leave Texas warmer, drier\u00a0<\/p>\n During La Ni\u00f1a, unusually strong Pacific trade winds push warm surface water westward toward Asia, enhancing an upwelling of deeper seawater along the Americas that forces colder, nutrient-rich water to the surface.\u00a0<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a is making a comeback this fall, which could lead to warmer and drier weather in Texas because of a more northerly shift in the jet stream that tends to occur.<\/p>\n NOAA<\/p>\n This weather pattern<\/a> nudges the jet stream north, leading to stormier conditions in the Pacific Northwest and warmer, drier weather across the southern United States, which includes Texas.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n 4. La Ni\u00f1a can benefit hurricanes<\/p>\n A shift to La Ni\u00f1a during the Atlantic hurricane season often leads to more storm activity in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n The critical factor is vertical wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction as you go higher into the atmosphere, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>. Strong shear can tear apart developing tropical systems or prevent them from forming and weak shear allows storms to organize and sustain their energy.<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a conditions in the Pacific tend to decrease wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, which then increases the chances of tropical cyclone development.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a arriving late in hurricane season may contribute to more storm activity in the tropics from September through November. Upper-atmospheric wind shear, which can tear apart tropical systems, tends to decrease in La Ni\u00f1a periods.<\/p>\n NOAA<\/p>\n 5. La Nina won\u2019t save Austin from freezes<\/p>\n The Climate Prediction Center\u2019s fall outlook<\/a> reflects the typical shift in Texas weather patterns, calling for drier conditions than normal from September through November.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Austin in September averages a high temperature near 91 degrees and a\u00a0low temp near 70 degrees with about 3.45 inches of rain. In October, the average high temp is 83 and the average low is 61 degrees, with roughly 3.91 inches of rainfall. By November, averages cool to 72 and 51 degrees with around 2.92 inches of rainfall.<\/p>\n Even with La Ni\u00f1a expected this fall and winter, cold snaps and wintry weather are still possible. Last year, a January winter storm <\/a>struck during a La Ni\u00f1a winter, and the major freeze in February 2021<\/a> also occurred under La Ni\u00f1a conditions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Icicles hang down from a Texas vehicle during a winter storm that occurred last January, when a weak…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":166221,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5123],"tags":[1582,276,2961,224,5337],"class_list":{"0":"post-166220","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-los-angeles","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-california","10":"tag-la","11":"tag-los-angeles","12":"tag-losangeles"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115071890399377727","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=166220"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166220\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/166221"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=166220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=166220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=166220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/p>\n
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