The 2026 NBA Draft is projected to be a class full of elite talent, ranging from the consensus top three freshmen in Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa, to star returners like Bennett Stirtz and Isaiah Evans. Below, we take a look at a group of the latter–college returners who have hit notable statistical thresholds in previous seasons, giving them a significant historical probability to stick in the NBA.<\/p>\n
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Mar 29, 2025; San Francisco, CA, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Kevin Overton (1) and forward JT Toppin (15) react during the second half against the Florida Gators during the West Regional final of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images \/ Eakin Howard-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Toppin will be a junior for the Red Raiders this season, where he put up impressive performance after impressive performance last season. The 6-foot-8, 210-pound forward averaged<\/a> 18.2 points, 1.2 assists, 9.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 turnovers per game while shooting 67.8%<\/a> at the rim (205 attempts), 48.4% on non-rim twos (184 attempts), 32.7% from three (55 attempts), and 67.6% from the free throw line (136 attempts). While the shooting numbers from beyond the arc and from the free throw line could undoubtedly improve, it’s important to note Toppin shot 56.5% from the free throw line his freshman season at New Mexico — giving him an 11-point percentage improvement this past season.<\/p>\n Additionally, Toppin recorded<\/a> a 14 offensive rebound percentage, 26.1 defensive rebound percentage, and a 7.6 stock percentage.<\/p>\n Why do his stats matter? Well, his production helped him end the season with a Box Plus-Minus of 10.6<\/a>, allowing him to meet the threshold for the Productive Sophomore Query<\/a>. 47 college players have met the same criteria as JT Toppin from 2010-2022, and 32 of those 47 players (68%<\/strong>) have gone on to play five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.<\/p>\n However, Toppin’s incredible historical production doesn’t stop there, as he met my Productive Young Athlete Query<\/a> as a freshman at New Mexico. This query has an even higher hit rate, with 77% of players meeting the same criteria playing five-plus years in the NBA or currently being in the league.<\/p>\n Read More: <\/strong>The Productive Young Athlete Query<\/a><\/p>\n Mar 19, 2025; Denver, CO, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nolan Winter (31) warms up during practice at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images \/ Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images<\/p>\n Winter is a rising junior for the Badgers who averaged<\/a> 9.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 0.8 turnovers this past season while shooting 78.5%<\/a> at the rim (107 attempts), 39.1% on non-rim twos (23 attempts), 35.8% from three (95 attempts), and 76.9% from the free throw line (78 attempts). Additionally, the 6-foot-11, 220-pound big man recorded a 9.8 offensive rebound percentage and 21.2 defensive rebound percentage this past season.<\/p>\n These numbers resulted in him having a Box Plus-Minus of 9.0<\/a> last season, helping him meet the criteria for the Productive Sophomore Query<\/a>. As mentioned above, 47 college players have met the Productive Sophomore Query from 2010-2022, and 32 of those 47 players (68%<\/strong>) have gone on to play five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.<\/p>\n Read More: <\/strong>The Productive Sophomore Query<\/a><\/p>\n Apr 7, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) reacts after defeating the Houston Cougars in the national championship game of the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome.Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images \/ Scott Wachter-Imagn Images<\/p>\n Another player who met the Productive Sophomore Query this past season, Haugh is a 6-foot-9, 210-pound wing\/forward who averaged<\/a> 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 1.1 turnovers per game while shooting 66.4%<\/a> at the rim (110 attempts), 29.6% on non-rim twos (27 attempts), 34% from three (103 attempts), and 79.4% from the free throw line (155 attempts).<\/p>\n Additionally, Haugh recorded <\/a>a 10.7 offensive rebound percentage, 14.2 assist percentage, and a stock percentage of five last season. Haugh’s 9.8<\/a> Box Plus-Minus helped him meet the Productive Sophomore Query last season as well.<\/p>\n Apr 7, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Florida Gators forward Alex Condon (21) dunks the ball against the Houston Cougars during the second half in the national championship game of the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome.Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images \/ Scott Wachter-Imagn Images<\/p>\n Haugh wasn’t the only Gator who met a significant statistical threshold last season, as Condon also met the Productive Sophomore Query<\/a>. The 6-foot-11, 230-pound big man averaged<\/a> 10.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.3 blocks, and 1.4 turnovers per game while shooting 65%<\/a> at the rim (160 attempts), 27.9% on non-rim twos (61 attempts), 32.8% from beyond the arc (58 attempts), and 60.4% from the free throw line (169 attempts). While the shooting indicators (and rim percentage) aren’t the best, his high shooting volume for a big is notable nonetheless.<\/p>\n Additionally, Condon recorded<\/a> a 12.5 offensive rebound percentage, 19.3 defensive rebound percentage, 15 assist percentage, and a 7.5 stock percentage last season. Overall, his impressive production and 9.5<\/a> Box Plus-Minus helped pave the way for him meeting the Productive Sophomore Query (68% stick rate).<\/p>\n Illinois center Tomislav Ivisic (13) attempts to score as Xavier forward Zach Freemantle goes for a block during the first half of their first round NCAA men\u2019 s basketball tournament game on Friday March 21, 2025 at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis. \/ Jovanny Hernandez \/ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel \/ USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images<\/p>\n The 7-foot-1, 255-pound big averaged<\/a> 13 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers per game while shooting 83.6%<\/a> at the rim (67 attempts), 46.9% on non-rim twos (96 attempts), 35.7% from three (154 attempts), and 75% from the free throw line (64 attempts) last season.<\/p>\n Additionally, Ivisic recorded<\/a> a 7.4 offensive rebound percentage, 22.2 defensive rebound percentage, 15.8 assist percentage, and a 5.2 stock percentage last season.<\/p>\n A 9.5<\/a> Box Plus-Minus helped Ivisic meet the Productive Sophomore Query this past season. However, it should be noted that he’s in a slightly different boat than the Winter’s, Haugh’s, and Condon’s of the world, as Ivisic played professional basketball overseas before being ruled a “sophomore” by the NCAA prior to last season.<\/p>\n Mar 21, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (2) dribbles against Lipscomb Bisons forward Jacob Ognacevic (41) during the second half of a first round NCAA men\u2019s tournament game at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images \/ Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images<\/p>\n The 6-foot-9, 240-pound rising senior averaged<\/a> 13 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2.3 turnovers per game this past season while shooting 69.4%<\/a> at the rim (147 attempts), 38.6% on on-rim twos (101 attempts), 31% from beyond the arc (58 attempts), and 75.6% from the free throw line (156 attempts) last season for the Cyclones. Additionally, Jefferson recorded a 8.1 offensive rebound percentage, 21.7 defensive rebound percentage, 19.6 assist percentage, 7.1 stock percentage, and a 17.8 turnover percentage.<\/p>\n Overall, Jefferson’s production resulted in a Box Plus-Minus of 10.3<\/a> last season. This helped him meet the criteria of the Productive Junior Query. From 2010-2021, 25 of the 38 players (66%) <\/strong>who met the Productive Junior Query have played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.<\/p>\n Read More: <\/strong>The Productive Junior Query<\/a><\/p>\n Mar 8, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Andrew Rohde (4) shoots against Syracuse Orange guard Kyle Cuffe Jr. (0) during the second half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images \/ Rich Barnes-Imagn Images<\/p>\n Rohde hit a significant statistical threshold as a freshman at St. Thomas during the 2022-23 season, helping him transfer up to Virginia for his sophomore and junior seasons and now Wisconsin for his senior season.<\/p>\n At St. Thomas, Rohde met the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query<\/a>. From 2010-2021, 60 players have met this query. 41 of those 60 players (68%<\/strong>) went on to play five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league–good company for Andrew Rohde. While his production hasn’t quite translated at the same level to high-major basketball, perhaps the 6-foot-6, 185-pound wing who shot 41.3%<\/a> from three (104 attempts) and 77.3% from the free throw line (44 attempts) last season while recording a 29.7 assist percentage should be someone to watch for this upcoming season.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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