Which projections are too low, too high or just right? Read more below.<\/p>\n
Arizona Cardinals<\/p>\n
Projected wins:<\/strong> 8.7 The Cardinals have trended in the right direction under head coach Jonathan Gannon. From four wins in Year 1 to eight wins last season. The next step is making the playoffs. Arizona is capable. As he enters his seventh season, QB Kyler Murray might have his most complete team around him. He has an elite tight end in Trey McBride<\/a>, a powerful running back in James Conner and the line is in good shape. Best of all: GM Monti Ossenfort upgraded the defense, particularly the pass rush. Is depth a concern? Yes, especially at corner. Does much depend on Marvin Harrison Jr.\u2019s second-year improvement? Absolutely. But this looks like a team that can contend in the NFC West. \u2014 Doug Haller<\/p>\n Atlanta Falcons<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 8.2 There is a lot of optimism inside Atlanta\u2019s building, but the reality remains that this team hasn\u2019t won more than eight games in a season since 2017. That\u2019s also the last time it made the playoffs. The burden of proof is on the Falcons. If second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. takes a step forward, Atlanta will score enough points to be a fun watch. If an influx of pass-rushing talent results in a defense that makes a few splash plays, the Falcons might prove some people wrong. \u2014 Josh Kendall<\/p>\n Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 11.0 The Ravens have one of the league\u2019s deepest rosters and it appears they\u2019ll get to Week 1 relatively healthy. They\u2019ve traditionally lost a lot of players and coaches in the offseason, but they experienced very modest change this year, so there are no excuses for a slow start. In the four seasons where Lamar Jackson has started more than 12 regular-season games, the Ravens have averaged 12.5 wins. With the difficulty of the Ravens\u2019 schedule in mind, it\u2019s probably wise to not get too carried away with the win prediction. Eleven feels like a good number. \u2014 Jeff Zrebiec<\/p>\n Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 11.2 Mock\u2019s highest projection might not be high enough. Buffalo has averaged 12.2 wins over five straight AFC East championship campaigns. The division looks lousy again. That\u2019s why Mock gives Buffalo the best chances for any team to make the playoffs. But there\u2019s something about Buffalo that doesn\u2019t seem quite as stable despite all its continuity. The reigning MVP, the offensive line, the front office, the coaching staff remain from last year\u2019s 13-4 team, but question marks swirl around a defense still searching for an identity. If the Bills\u2019 almost certainly unrepeatable 8-32 turnover ratio crashes toward the average, then winning will be significantly harder. \u2014 Tim Graham<\/p>\n Carolina Panthers<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 6.5 When the schedules were released, I predicted the Panthers would build on Bryce Young\u2019s strong finish in 2024 with an 8-9 record in 2025. That might have been a little bullish. I still think Young and the offense continue trending upward. The addition of Tetairoa McMillan will help open the field for Xavier Legette, while Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle should be one of the better RB tandems in the league. GM Dan Morgan spent most of the offseason resources on the defense. Plus, the Panthers get Pro Bowl DL Derrick Brown back. But it will take more than one year to fix the league\u2019s worst defense. \u2014 Joseph Person<\/p>\n Chicago Bears<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 7.4 This may not go over well in Chicago, where Ben Johnson Fever is commingling with a slightly milder variant of Caleb Williams Mania in 2025. But if the Bears have taught us anything over the years, it\u2019s that summertime stimulation too often turns into fall failure. Now 15 seasons removed from their last playoff victory and looking to post just their second winning season since 2012, the Bears have earned every ounce of \u201csee it to believe it\u201d suspicion. It\u2019s up to Johnson and Williams to change that tune by meeting expectations individually and collectively in their first season together. But in a tough division and with six of eight road games against 2024 playoff teams, the margin for error is thin and the climb remains steep. \u2014 Dan Wiederer<\/p>\n Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 10.0 Before watching the preseason games, I would be tempted to say 10 was low. The continuity of an offense that finished top five in nearly every major category last year is overwhelming. They could easily finish as the NFL\u2019s top attack. They merely need the defense to be average. New DC Al Golden built momentum and confidence in camp, but first-team snaps showed just how far they have to go. That group could be coming into its own by November, but with multiple rookies, inexperienced players and leap-year hopefuls in significant roles of a new system, it limits the ceiling of the win total. \u2014 Paul Dehner Jr.<\/p>\n Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 5.4 The Browns might have an elite defense. Cleveland\u2019s offense can\u2019t possibly be worse than it was early last season and late last season. But the early schedule is brutal, and it\u2019s difficult to project a team in transition on multiple fronts to win more than five even if it\u2019s able to pull an upset or two early. The Browns are going to let Joe Flacco fling it until it\u2019s time to pull the plug and play the rookie quarterbacks, and I just don\u2019t see enough roster depth or enough offensive pop for the Browns to become a true surprise team. They\u2019ll be feisty, and ultimately they\u2019ll fade into the reality of the best plan, which is playing for the future and trying to secure a high draft pick for next April \u2014 Zac Jackson<\/p>\n Dallas Cowboys<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 7.9 A new coaching staff and a potentially brutal back-half of the schedule make me think double-digit wins is wishful thinking. The Cowboys have never had a losing record in a season when Dak Prescott has stayed healthy. So, if you believe the 32-year-old avoids injury in a bounce-back season, maybe nine-plus wins is possible. But there are still several other key questions. What if Micah Parsons isn\u2019t playing because of his contract situation<\/a>? What if he does play but he\u2019s rusty from not practicing in training camp? Will it take an offense led by Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens time to hit their stride after not playing in the preseason? Will there be adjustments needed that Brian Schottenheimer wasn\u2019t expecting in his first year as a head coach? Around eight wins seems about right. \u2014 Jon Machota<\/p>\n Denver Broncos<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 9.2 The Broncos had the top-ranked defense in the league last year in terms of EPA per snap and also led the NFL in sacks. They brought back every member of their defensive front and then added linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and first-round defensive back Jahdae Barron. Bo Nix ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropbacks from Week 10 on last season, a figure he compiled without a major threat at tight end or a consistent run game. He now has Evan Engram at tight end and the additions of JK Dobbins and second-round pick RJ Harvey give the Broncos a major upgrade in the backfield. Nix is also in the same system for a second straight year for the first time since high school and that continuity should help Denver improve upon its 1-6 record in one-score games last season. I have the Broncos at 11 wins. \u2014 Nick Kosmider<\/p>\n Detroit Lions<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 10.2 The Detroit Lions boast one of the league\u2019s most talented rosters, so they could easily surpass 10 wins. However, it\u2019s fair to take a wait-and-see approach into 2025. The Lions lost coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn to head coaching gigs, as well as All-Pro center Frank Ragnow to retirement. They play in a competitive division and their road schedule features seven playoff teams from 2024. Some slight hesitation is understandable. That said, the Lions expect their defense to take a step forward given the continuity of the group and return of Aidan Hutchinson. While the offensive line incorporates two young starters at guard in Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge, the talent at the skill positions remains elite. I might go slightly higher, but this is within range. \u2014 Colton Pouncy<\/p>\n Green Bay Packers<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 9.8 But not by much. The Packers return much of the same team from a year ago that won 11 games. Their schedule is a gauntlet this season, but the majority of those difficult games on paper are at Lambeau Field (Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens). First-round rookie Matthew Golden looks like an instant impact receiver and quarterback Jordan Love \u2014 knock on wood \u2014 probably won\u2019t play the first half of the season with a bum knee and groin like he did in 2024. The pass rush and secondary are question marks, but Jeff Hafley\u2019s defense ranked fourth in the league with 31 takeaways last season and can cover up flaws by hounding the ball again. \u2014 Matt Schneidman<\/p>\n Houston Texans<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 8.8 Winners of the AFC South and 10 games in back-to-back seasons, the Texans recognized their glaring weakness (the offensive line) and used both free agency and the draft to address it. They also made a change at offensive coordinator to better maximize C.J. Stroud\u2019s talents. While there could be some growing pains, the Texans will again have a strong defense to lean on. Although the divisional competition may have slightly improved (mainly Jacksonville), Houston remains a favorite to win the division. Another 10-win campaign is a realistic expectation. \u2014 Mike Jones<\/p>\n Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 7.5 The Colts are 17-17 over the last two years with Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco at quarterback and a defense that never ranked better than 24th in points allowed per game. I\u2019m not saying Daniel Jones is an upgrade at QB, but the Colts believe if they get steady play at the position, they can be a playoff team thanks to their revamped defense. Indianapolis\u2019 new DC Lou Anarumo, formerly of the Bengals, is known for his exotic play calls, and the Colts gave him some big-time playmakers by signing veteran defensive backs Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. \u2014 James Boyd<\/p>\n Jacksonville Jaguars<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 7.9 The Jaguars should be better under new coach Liam Coen, but it might take about half the season for QB Trevor Lawrence and the offense to get into a groove in the new system. That could be a blessing and a curse, as the first half of the schedule is significantly more difficult than the back end. So, as long as the Jaguars can show the mental fortitude to get through some likely early struggles, they could put pressure on the AFC South, perhaps similar to the run they made in 2022. \u2014 Jeff Howe<\/p>\n Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 10.9 If you\u2019re bullish on Kansas City here, you could bring up coach Andy Reid\u2019s history; according to Action Network, Reid has gone 10-2 on his Vegas \u201cover\u201d win total in 12 seasons with the Chiefs. Still, K.C. appeared to get unusually fortunate with last year\u2019s 15-2 campaign, with FTN Football Almanac\u2019s numbers saying last year\u2019s squad was the NFL\u2019s highest overperforming team since the 1970 merger. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has looked great in camp, but there are enough questions here (left side of offensive line, overall depth) to make me think 11-6 is the most likely outcome. \u2014 Jesse Newell<\/p>\n Las Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n Projected wins:<\/strong> 7.6 I predicted the Raiders would finish with eight wins earlier this offseason, but that was prior to the release of Christian Wilkins<\/a> and the realization of how big of an issue the defense is on all three levels. The Raiders have a much better head coach in Pete Carroll and the offense should be improved \u2014 the addition of quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly should all be major upgrades \u2014 but the other side of the ball will be what holds this team back. \u2014 Tashan Reed<\/p>\n Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too low<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too low<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> About right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too high<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too low<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too low<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too low<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Too low<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
Verdict:<\/strong> Just right<\/p>\n
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