By many measures, the coronavirus is a thing of the past.<\/p>\n
Masks have been stored away. Social distancing is just a vague memory. Interest in vaccines is waning. COVID, for many, feels like an inevitable annoyance, like the flu.<\/p>\n
Then, each summer, we get a rude reminder. <\/p>\n
The season of travel and fun continues to bring a spike in COVID-19 activity, far less profound than during the height of the pandemic but enough for people to notice and worry.<\/p>\n
This summer\u2019s jump is being fueled by the subvariant XFG, nicknamed \u201cStratus.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cAs we learn more about COVID, we are seeing that it has two surges a year: the late fall\/early winter and in the summer, so we expect this trend of increased cases in the summer to continue,\u201d said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, the regional chief of infectious disease at Kaiser Permanente Southern California.<\/p>\n
Why summer?<\/p>\n
There are a number of factors that could explain why COVID activity seems to ramp up along with the temperature, according to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health:<\/p>\n
\u2022 Summertime travel and increased social mixing because of social events.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Spending time indoors to beat the heat: Respiratory viruses tend to spread more easily in environments with low humidity and cool temperatures. Air-conditioned spaces might not have adequate ventilation.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Waning immunity from vaccination and previous infections.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Mutations: As the virus spreads, it acquires mutations that allow it to evade our existing immunity. Eventually, a version of the virus collects enough mutations that it has a slight edge over other viruses, and if other factors line up, it can sweep through a population.<\/p>\n
What do the numbers show?<\/p>\n
The rate at which coronavirus tests in California came back positive was 11.59% for the week ending Aug. 16. That\u2019s up from a positive test rate of 5.69% for the week ending July 19, according to the California Department of Public Health<\/a>. <\/p>\n The positive test rate is expected to further increase in the coming weeks, the department said.<\/p>\n \u201cCOVID-19 test positivity this summer looks similar to [the] summer of 2023 so far,\u201d the department said. That year saw the summer COVID wave peak in early September<\/a>. <\/p>\n Last year, which saw the largest summer spike since 2022<\/a>, COVID activity maxed out in early August. <\/p>\n COVID is also increasingly a reason why people are seeking urgent medical care. For the week ending Aug. 17, COVID diagnosis was the reason<\/a> why 4.04% of children in California up to age 11 were in the emergency room \u2014 up from 1.02% during the last week in June. <\/p>\n COVID was the reason why 2.25% of people age 75 and older were in the emergency room over the same period, up from 1.13% during the last week of June, state data show.<\/p>\n So what? The pandemic emergency is over<\/p>\n The rise in COVID comes as the disease has receded as a major worry from the minds of many, with fewer people getting annual COVID vaccines and even fewer wearing masks in any setting. <\/p>\n Still, COVID can result in significant illness \u2014 a \u201crazor blade\u201d sore throat and miserable cough for some and hospitalization and even death<\/a> for the very young, very old and chronically ill. <\/p>\n The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates<\/a> that at least 38,000 have died<\/a> from COVID-19 for the season that began Oct. 1. During the same period, the CDC estimates the number of flu deaths<\/a> to be at least 27,000.<\/p>\n At the same time, long COVID <\/a>and other related impacts<\/a> of the coronavirus remain major issues. At least 17 million<\/a> adults and 1 million children have experienced long COVID at some point, with 1 in 5 adult sufferers experiencing significant limits on their daily activities. <\/p>\n Other respiratory viruses, like flu<\/a>, can also cause serious illness and carry the risk of death, especially for infants and toddlers, seniors, and those with chronic health issues. <\/p>\n What are the vaccine numbers like?<\/p>\n Just 14.7% of California\u2019s population has received the updated COVID-19 vaccine that first became available nearly a year ago<\/a>. <\/p>\n Uptake was greatest among the oldest Californians, with 37.2% of state seniors age 65 and up getting the vaccine. <\/p>\n For those ages 50 to 64, 17.7% have gotten their shot, as have 9.5% of younger adults ages 18 to 49. Among children ages 5 to 11, 5.9% have been vaccinated, and for those younger than 5, 3.2% have been vaccinated with the latest COVID-19 vaccine formula.<\/p>\n Vaccination rates also vary by geography. Among all age groups, 24.8% of the population of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine. Among seniors age 65 and up, 51% got the updated vaccine. <\/p>\n Across Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties, 12.5% of residents of all ages have received the updated vaccine; among seniors age 65 and up, 33% got the inoculation.<\/p>\n The California Department of Public Health continues to recommend that everyone age 6 months and older stay up to date on their COVID-19 vaccinations. <\/p>\n \u201cThis is particularly important for higher-risk individuals, such as infants and toddlers, pregnant individuals, older persons, and others with risks for serious disease,\u201d the department said. <\/p>\n The department\u2019s advice resembles the CDC\u2019s past guidance, which has changed since the start of the second Trump administration and the appointment of<\/a> vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the CDC\u2019s parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services. <\/p>\n The CDC now says it offers \u201cno guidance\u201d as to whether healthy pregnant women should get the COVID vaccine, and asks parents of healthy children to talk with a healthcare provider before getting the COVID vaccine for their youngsters.<\/p>\n Mainstream medical organizations, like the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, continue to recommend that people receive the updated COVID-19 vaccine at any point during pregnancy. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends infants and children ages 6 months to 23 months get the updated COVID vaccine, since they are at high risk of severe illness should they get COVID, and that the vaccine should be offered for children age 2 and older if their parent wishes. <\/p>\n Some doctors, including Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert, have suggested that people who haven\u2019t been vaccinated in more than a year, and are at risk for severe complications should they get COVID, get vaccinated with the currently available shots now. <\/p>\n Chin-Hong noted that the 2025-26 version of the COVID vaccine should be \u201crelatively the same formula\u201d as the 2024-25 version. \u201cIt\u2019s less important to wait,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Eligibility for the new vaccine has been delayed by the Trump administration, and it isn\u2019t clear when it\u2019ll become available or who will be eligible outside of older people and those with chronic health conditions. <\/p>\n Some pharmacy chains and health providers have paused online scheduling of appointments for COVID-19 vaccines until the 2025-26 version is released, presumably later this year. <\/p>\n But at least one chain, CVS, says all of its pharmacies nationwide offer the 2024-25 version of the COVID-19 vaccine and that it is available on a walk-in basis.<\/p>\n \u201cAll CVS Pharmacy locations across the U.S. currently offer the COVID-19 vaccine. We\u2019ll continue to offer to eligible patients, as determined by the [Food and Drug Administration] and CDC, until an updated 2025-2026 vaccine is released,\u201d CVS spokesperson Amy Thibault said in a statement to The Times. <\/p>\n \u201cDigital vaccination scheduling is paused temporarily, but we are still offering walk-in COVID-19 vaccinations,\u201d Thibault said. <\/p>\n What might the rest of the summer look like?<\/p>\n Officials note that the spread of COVID appears to be less severe this summer compared to last. <\/p>\n Across California, levels of the coronavirus detected in wastewater are about 20% lower than the peak of the 2023 summer wave, and about 50% below the height of the 2024 summer wave, the state Department of Public Health said. <\/p>\n For this time of year, COVID hospitalizations are currently considered low, based off thresholds \u201cestablished from the data from the past five seasons,\u201d the department said. \u201cDeaths are also lower than previous seasons.\u201d <\/p>\n What can I do to protect myself?<\/p>\n Here are some steps those concerned about COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases can take: <\/p>\n \u2022 Get vaccinated now, especially if you\u2019re at higher risk of severe complications from COVID-19 and haven\u2019t received a vaccine in more than a year. <\/p>\n \u2022 If you do get sick with COVID-19, talk with a medical provider about getting an anti-COVID drug like Paxlovid<\/a>, which can reduce the duration of illness and alleviate symptoms. <\/p>\n \u2022 Stay away from sick people. <\/p>\n \u2022 Wear a well-fitting mask, like a KF94 or an N95, in indoor public settings \u2014 or perhaps at least carry one with you if you\u2019re traveling, so you can wear it if someone is coughing on a plane. \u201cNow\u2019s a good time to mask in indoor public places if you\u2019re in a high-risk group,\u201d wrote Dr. Matt Willis, former public health officer for Marin County, on the \u201cYour Local Epidemiologist in California\u201d blog.<\/a> <\/p>\n \u2022 Optimize indoor air quality \u2014 opening a window helps!<\/p>\n \u2022 Test if you\u2019re ill with COVID-like symptoms or have been exposed to the virus.<\/p>\n And here\u2019s some advice about flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV:<\/p>\n \u2022 Health officials recommend everyone age 6 months and older get the flu shot for the upcoming season. <\/p>\n \u2022 The vaccine for RSV is recommended<\/a> for all adults age 75 and older and those ages 50 to 74 who are at increased risk for RSV. People who have already received the RSV vaccine in recent years don\u2019t need another dose at this time. <\/p>\n