{"id":185491,"date":"2025-08-29T20:37:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T20:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/185491\/"},"modified":"2025-08-29T20:37:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T20:37:13","slug":"the-downsides-of-suspending-the-monthly-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/185491\/","title":{"rendered":"The downsides of suspending the monthly jobs report"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is just one of the stories from our \u201cI\u2019ve Always Wondered\u201d series, where we tackle all of your questions about the world of business, no matter how big or small. Ever wondered if recycling is\u00a0<\/strong>worth it<\/a><\/strong>? Or how store brands\u00a0<\/strong>stack up against<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0name brands? Check out more from the series\u00a0<\/strong>here<\/a><\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reader Celeste Myslewski from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, asks:\u00a0<\/p>\n

I’m worried, Marketplace. Is there anywhere else we can get those monthly economy numbers I hear on Marketplace, aside from the U.S. government? How will you give us these numbers if \/when they go away and how will we know the government numbers are true?<\/p>\n

Monetary policymakers like the Federal Reserve look to key economic indicators, like the monthly jobs report, to guide their decision making.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is the single most important data release in the world,\u201d said Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner who\u2019s now a senior economics adviser at Cornell University. \u201cThis is the most timely and trustworthy information that people everywhere have on the state of the U.S. economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the future of the monthly report has been under threat.\u00a0<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer following the release of a weak July jobs report and downward revised jobs numbers<\/a> for May and June. Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, an economist from the right-wing think tank the Heritage Foundation, to replace her. A longtime BLS official, William J. Wiatrowski, is currently serving as the acting commissioner<\/a> while Antoni awaits Senate confirmation.<\/p>\n

Prior to his nomination, Antoni claimed that the monthly report is unreliable<\/a> and said that the BLS should suspend it while continuing to publish quarterly data \u2014 a suggestion that he has since walked back.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Economists think it\u2019s unlikely the report will be suspended because of how crucial a tool it is for policymakers and businesses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt’s such a boneheaded idea that I don’t think it will happen,\u201d said David Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If any government official does want to suspend the jobs report or manipulate the data, then good luck. Former BLS commissioners told Marketplace that the agency rigorously vets the figures it receives, making it difficult for bad actors to tamper with any data.<\/p>\n

Why experts think we\u2019re safe for now\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Past commissioners commended the integrity of the agency\u2019s employees and said they work to produce the best estimates that they can.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cI have a lot of confidence in the career professional staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics,\u201d said Katharine Abraham, who served as commissioner from 1993 through 2001 and is currently an economics professor at the University of Maryland.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Groshen echoed that sentiment, saying she thinks the agency\u2019s staff would \u201cresist changes that diminish the quality of the data.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019d also be difficult to meddle with the jobs report and compromise it.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a very finely tuned operation, and they’d be throwing a wrench into it,\u201d Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The jobs report consists of two independent surveys:<\/a> the household survey, which measures the number of people who are employed<\/a> in the country, broken down by demographic characteristics. Then there\u2019s the establishment survey, <\/a>which measures the number of jobs<\/a> in the nonfarm sector, broken down by industry and geographic region.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The U.S. Census Bureau, a different agency, actually administers the household survey, and it publicly releases the data for that survey after the jobs report is released, Groshen pointed out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If you mucked around with the jobs report, you\u2019d have to suppress that data too, she explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The BLS conducts the establishment survey, and staffers vet the quality of the employment data they get from companies and flag any figures that look unusual, Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are looking for something that doesn’t make sense relative to the past pattern of the company, not whether the total is unwelcome to the White House,\u201d Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The jobs numbers are also finalized before the commissioner is allowed to see it, so any alterations they make would be noticeable, she noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If a commissioner wanted to manipulate any BLS data, they\u2019d have to bring in staff members who are involved in the compilation of the report, Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But while experts aren\u2019t concerned, if anyone did manage to compromise any monthly data, there are signs you could look out for.\u00a0<\/p>\n

You might see a delay in the jobs report, along with evidence of turmoil within the agency itself, Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Expect staffers to quit and whistle blowers to go to the press, she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Consequences for financial markets and the economy<\/strong><\/p>\n

If the jobs report were manipulated or suppressed, the stock market could plummet in the short run, experts told Marketplace.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Economic uncertainty would increase, which means companies might be less likely to hire people and people might be less likely to make investments, they said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Interest rates would have to rise for people to invest. And if interest rates rise, that means the interest on federal debt, which the government pays for, would increase, Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThis would all push us closer to having a recession, or at least much slower growth,\u201d Groshen said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve relies on all kinds of statistical information, including the jobs report, before their policy-making meetings, Wilcox said. Those same meetings where they can raise or lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If they didn\u2019t have this data available, it would be like driving a car with a blurry windshield, Wilcox said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Alternate data sources<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are private companies that produce data<\/a> that can help us understand the labor market, like Indeed, which measures the percentage change in job postings over time.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

There are also payroll management firms like ADP, which releases monthly jobs numbers for the private sector. But there are drawbacks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

ADP\u2019s data is based on its customers, which means it\u2019s not necessarily representative of the entire economy, Abraham said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While these alternate sources can\u2019t replace the monthly jobs report, experts say that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s perfect either.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The BLS revises its jobs numbers multiple times as company survey data trickles in, which is why you might hear that the total number of jobs added to the economy was actually lower or higher than initially reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The collection rate<\/a> \u2014 or the percentage of companies who respond, excluding those who refuse \u2014 typically hovers around 60% or 70% for the first estimate the BLS puts out, said economist David Wilcox.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For the second estimate, the collection rate tends to be in the mid-90s, Wilcox said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cOne obvious strategy is to work like crazy to make it as easy as possible for respondents to get their information in,\u201d Wilcox said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The agency could also collaborate with private payroll companies like ADP by devising a system that would allow these services to submit data on behalf of their clients to the BLS, Wilcox said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will take some investment. Down the road, is there a payoff? You bet there is,\u201d Wilcox said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But such a system seems unlikely at the moment. Trump\u2019s 2026 budget proposal would reduce the BLS\u2019 budget by $56 million.<\/a><\/p>\n

Related Topics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This is just one of the stories from our \u201cI\u2019ve Always Wondered\u201d series, where we tackle all of…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":185492,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[13635,64,1597,420,50846,4506,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-185491","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jobs","8":"tag-bureau-of-labor-statistics","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-federal-reserve","11":"tag-jobs","12":"tag-jobs-report","13":"tag-labor-market","14":"tag-united-states","15":"tag-unitedstates","16":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115113980279539936","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185491\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}