2h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 6:50amMarket snapshot<\/p>\n
Price current around 4.45pm AEST<\/p>\n
Live updates on the major ASX indices:<\/b><\/p>\n
2h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 6:46amASX closes lower<\/p>\n
The Aussie stock market has closed 0.4 per cent lower at 8,514.2 points.<\/p>\n
Mining giants BHP and Rinto Tinto saw big gains off the back of iron ore price hikes overnight (BHP closed up 3.9 per cent to $37.53, Rio Tinto was 4.6 per cent higher at $108.97)\u00a0 but big banks including CBA were in the red (down 2.8 per cent to $185.36).<\/p>\n
AMP chief economist and head of investment strategy Shane Oliver said share market volatility is likely to remain high in the next few months given tariff uncertainties, concerns about US debt and likely weaker growth and profits.<\/p>\n
“But with Trump likely to pivot towards more market friendly policies and central banks, including the Fed and RBA, likely to cut rates further, shares are likely to provide reasonable gains into year end,” he said.<\/p>\n
\n“Shares have literally climbed a wall of worry over the last six months as Trump has tried to build a new world order and upset the global trading system with big tariff hikes and as conflict in the Middle East threatened to disrupt oil supplies,” he said.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
“However, volatility is likely to remain high as: US and Australian shares are expensive; Trump’s tariff threat will likely increase again with the July 9 tariff deadline rapidly approaching and some countries likely to see hikes beyond 10 per cent tariffs.”<\/p>\n
2h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 6:17amNew super pay gap data released<\/p>\n
Women today are expected to retire earlier and live longer than men but currently retire with a third less super, according to the Super Members Council.<\/p>\n
Its analysis of ATO data shows the gender super gap dramatically widens when women reach their 30s \u2014 the decade many women take time out of the paid workforce to raise children.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Until now, parental leave was the only type of paid leave that didn’t attract super \u2014 whether funded by employers or the government.<\/p>\n
But Super Members Council CEO Misha Schubert said from July 1 super will be paid parental leave, calling it ” a historic achievement”.<\/p>\n
\n“We’re not talking baby steps here \u2014 this is a huge stride forward to tackle women’s retirement inequity,” she said.<\/b><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
“It’s going to be transformative to help to tackle gender inequity in retirement.”<\/p>\n
Read more on the ATO’s latest taxation statistics here:<\/p>\n
3h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 5:42amMiddle East oil crisis averted for now<\/p>\n
The Middle East oil crisis has been averted for now, so the price of oil has fallen and shares are up to near record highs.<\/p>\n
AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says while the past week started with uncertainty as to how Iran would retaliate against the US strike against its nuclear facilities, “things quickly settled down after Iran’s retaliation was seen as “merely symbolic and aimed at de-escalation which quickly saw President Trump verbally impose a ceasefire between Israel and Iran”.<\/p>\n
This, Mr Oliver points out, saw the oil price plunge below levels seen before the war started and shares rebound to near record levels.<\/p>\n
“Oil supply is key when it comes to conflict in the Middle East,” he said.<\/b><\/p>\n
“This is all that investment markets are concerned about. When it became clear that any disruption to oil supplies was unlikely oil prices quickly fell back and shares rebounded.”<\/p>\n
He notes the positive global lead saw the Australian share market rise by around 0.4 per cent for the week, with gains led by financials, material and discretionary stocks but with energy shares down sharply.<\/p>\n
“Bond yields fell in the US and Australia with prospects for lower interest rates but rose in Germany, on the back of more defence related fiscal stimulus, and Japan,” he said.<\/p>\n
“While oil prices plunged around 12 per cent and gold fell with less safe haven demand, metal prices rose but iron ore prices fell.”<\/b><\/p>\n
As Mr Trump had announced on social media that he’d brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, I was speaking to young Iranians about how they felt about it, and whether they think regime change in Iran to democratic system may be possible. You can read more on that here:<\/p>\n
3h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 5:11am<\/p>\n
Net tax from companies rises3h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 5:03am2.3 million Australians declared rental income in 22-23<\/p>\n
The ATO’s taxation statistics released today show 2.3 million Australians declared rental income in 2022-23, with about 71 per cent of landlords owning only one investment property (just over 1.6 million).<\/p>\n
About 19 per cent (423,000) own two properties, around 6 per cent (130,000) own three properties, while around 4 per cent of landlords (47,000) own four properties.<\/p>\n
There are very few landlords (18,837) with five investment properties and a similarly small group with six or more (19,389).<\/p>\n
Read more here:<\/p>\n
3h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 5:01am<\/p>\n
Why is the US dollar diving?<\/p>\n
Market analyst Chris Weston from Pepperstone<\/b> says the US dollar is in a steep demise.<\/p>\n
\n“The US dollar Index (DXY) put in a daily close below its June 12 low of 97.61, with price trading to a low of 97.01, the weakest level since March 2022<\/b>. With the DXY \u22122.1% in June, this marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline for the USD index<\/b> and the worst run of form since mid-2017,” he notes.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Why is the US currency performing so badly? Weston says it doesn’t have much going for it right now:<\/p>\n
\n“As FX players move on from the Iran-Israel conflict and navigate further month-end flows, the price action in the USD and the failure of the USD to stage any meaningful counter-rally, with traders quick to sell into strength<\/b>, speaks volumes\u2014the reasons behind the disdain for the USD seem plentiful and easily explain the bear trend.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
“Those that are front of mind include:<\/p>\n
\n
- “Equity\u2013US dollar correlation. The 20-day rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and the DXY sits at \u20130.79. That’s as strong an inverse relationship as we’ve seen since January; under current dynamics, when the S&P 500 rallies, the dollar falls.<\/li>\n
- “Fed leadership uncertainty. Media reports that Trump could make an earlier than expected announcement on his pick to replace Jerome Powell, whose tenure as Fed chair ends in May 2026. This approach reduces the perception of Fed independence and the freedom for the Fed chair to set policy without interference. Essentially, a “shadow” Fed chair undermines credibility of US monetary policy, and that does not sit well with foreign investors.<\/li>\n
- “The U.S. becoming less ‘exceptional’ \u2014 U.S. growth and labour markets are facing increasing downside risks, notably in Q325 \u2014 and, while China and EU growth is hardly blowing the lights out; the greater concern for markets falls on the U.S. economy.<\/li>\n
- “Foreign-capital hedging flows. With foreign investors racking up an incredible US$31 trillion in U.S. assets (across equity, fixed income, and credit)\u2014a function of U.S. exceptionalism\u2014this USD notional exposure has been called into question, with foreign investors either reducing their exposure to the U.S. or increasing USD hedging ratios. Trump’s unpredictable and erratic policy agenda is a major catalyst behind these flows.<\/li>\n
- “Interest-rate differentials offering EUR tailwinds. EUR vs. U.S. 1-year forward swap differentials have risen from \u2013172 bp in early June to \u2013136 bp. This reflects shifting rate-cut expectations, with the market pricing in additional rate from the Fed later this year while paring back ECB-cut bets.<\/li>\n
- “Fiscal dynamics. Upward revisions to China’s growth outlook from economists, plus the compelling 2026 fiscal plans from the German govt, contrast with ever-increasing U.S. public debt and U.S. deficits projected near 6% of GDP for years ahead.”<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That is what I’d call a wall of worries.<\/p>\n
4h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 4:51am<\/p>\n
Market snapshot<\/p>\n
\n
- ASX 200: -0.2% to 8,537 points<\/li>\n
- Australian dollar: Flat at 65.44 US cents<\/li>\n
- Nikkei: +1.6% to 40,197 points<\/li>\n
- Hang Seng: -0.1% to 24,310 points<\/li>\n
- Shanghai: -0.2% to 3,441 points<\/li>\n
- S&P 500: +0.8% to 6,141 points<\/li>\n
- Nasdaq: +1% to 20,167 points<\/li>\n
- FTSE: +0.2% to 8,735 points<\/li>\n
- EuroStoxx: +0.1% to 537 points<\/li>\n
- Spot gold: -1% to $US3,295\/ounce<\/li>\n
- Brent crude: +0.6% to $US68.12\/barrel<\/li>\n
- Iron ore: +0.1% to $US94.55\/tonne<\/li>\n
- Bitcoin: -0.2% to $US107,615<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Price current around 2:50pm AEST<\/p>\n
Live updates on the major ASX indices:<\/b><\/p>\n
4h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 4:38am<\/p>\n
Has the US government bond dam burst?<\/p>\n
The pricing of US bonds yields suggests more money is leaving the world’s biggest economy.<\/p>\n
The US 30-Year Treasury bond is trading at 4.812 per cent.<\/b><\/p>\n
On May 7 it traded lower at 4.778 per cent.<\/p>\n
But it was as low as 4.422 per cent in April.<\/p>\n
The Financial Times<\/b> is reporting investors are exiting out of long-term US bonds at the fastest rate since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago.<\/p>\n
Net outflows, it says, from long-dated US bond funds spanning government and corporate debt have hit nearly $11 billion in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
When investors sell bonds, their yields go up.<\/p>\n
You know how the market’s been distracted by the Iran-Israel war and the potential for a spike in the price of oil?<\/p>\n
Well now that the ceasefire appears to be holding, investors are turning their attention back to tariffs and, crucially, the US fiscal position.<\/p>\n
Is it sustainable? Well, no.<\/p>\n
Could the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill<\/b> be the fiscal panacea for the US economy, along with sweeping tariffs?<\/p>\n
It seems that traders are voting with their cash.<\/p>\n
4h agoFri 27 Jun 2025 at 4:01amTreasurer issues first invitations to Productivity Roundtable<\/p>\n
Jim Chalmers<\/b> had warned that it will be a relatively small group who meet in August to discuss solutions for the nation’s lagging productivity growth.<\/p>\n
Today we got the initial list of invitees<\/b>:<\/p>\n
\n
- Danielle Wood, Chair, Productivity Commission<\/li>\n
- Sally McManus, Secretary, Australian Council of Trade Unions<\/li>\n
- Michele O’Neil, President, Australian Council of Trade Unions<\/li>\n
- Bran Black, Chief Executive Officer, Business Council of Australia<\/li>\n
- Andrew McKellar, Chief Executive Officer, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry<\/li>\n
- Innes Willox, Chief Executive Officer, Australian Industry Group<\/li>\n
- Matthew Addison, Chair, Council of Small Business Organisations of Australia<\/li>\n
- Cassandra Goldie, Australian Council of Social Service<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
ACTU alternate delegates <\/b>for the secretary and president if unavailable:<\/p>\n
![\"Nassim](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/lcimg-ffc49179-a415-4503-968f-d51ca8dfb58f.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Michael](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/lcimg-4b155f50-d1aa-4dad-99fe-239e1f9416e7.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n