Politics, like life, goes in cycles. The young replace the elderly, and then before they know it, they\u2019re the \u201cover the hill gang\u201d and the sounds of footsteps behind them helps them realize it\u2019s time to exit stage left.<\/p>\n
In September 1992 \u2013 almost exactly a third of a century ago \u2013 Rep. Ted Weiss, a long-time liberal West Side congressional representative, died unexpectedly the day before the Democratic primary.<\/p>\n
Jerry Nadler, then a 44-year-old West Side Assembly member who belonged to an earlier incarnation of the Democratic Socialists of America, was picked by the Manhattan Democratic Committee to replace Weiss.<\/p>\n
On Election Day two months later, Nadler won two victories: the special election to fill out the last two months of Weiss\u2019 term and the general election to serve as the new West Side congressional representative for the next two-year term ending in 1994. He went on to win reelection 16 more times, most recently last year.<\/p>\n
Earlier this week, Nadler, who is now 78 years old, decided to voluntarily hang up his political cleats and retire while he\u2019s still near the top of his game. Until nine months ago, he was chair of the powerful House Judiciary Committee, where he led the first impeachment hearing against President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
In an exclusive interview with The New York Times \u2013 a publication that has always been friendly to Nadler, endorsing him and his prot\u00e9g\u00e9s on the West Side regularly for the past three decades \u2013 Nadler indicated that after the Biden debacle last year he realized it was time to step aside so a new generation of leadership can rise up and lead the New York City of the future.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s too early to tell what repercussions Nadler\u2019s decision will have nationally or locally \u2013 will we see more older septuagenarians and octogenarians heed his wise words and step aside for the 2026 or 2028 elections?<\/p>\n
Will 74-year-old Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer \u2013 just four years younger than Nadler \u2013 decide it\u2019s time to end his own impressive but twilighting political career well before he\u2019s up for reelection in 2028, when he\u2019s likely to get a formidable left-wing opponent, maybe even one with the initials \u201cAOC\u201d?<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not too early for the political intelligentsia in Manhattan to start gaming out the race to succeed Nadler in the 2026 Democratic primary \u2013 which is less than 10 months away.<\/p>\n
In the Times piece, Nadler didn\u2019t endorse his successor, but someone \u201cfamiliar with his thinking\u201d told the paper he would support West Side Assembly member Micah Lasher, the political prodigy who helped elect Nadler and other West Side leaders of the past \u2013 like Scott Stringer, Linda Rosenthal and Eric Schneiderman \u2013 when he was a mere teenager and firebrand at Stuyvesant High School, which is not coincidentally Nadler\u2019s alma mater (and in full disclosure, mine as well). One insider said that Lasher, who is about the same age Nadler was when he was first elected to Congress, \u201cis like a son to Jerry.\u201d<\/p>\n
There will be many other impressive public servants eyeing this race: pundits are already predicting that East Side Assembly member Alex Bores, Chelsea Council member Erik Bottcher, East Side State Senator Liz Krueger and many others in government or in the private sector may jump in to campaign for one of the most high-profile political positions in New York\u2019s power precincts.<\/p>\n
We can lump the potential candidates for this plum congressional seat into four categories.<\/p>\n
The Old Guard: Scott Stringer, Carolyn Maloney, Gale Brewer, Brad Hoylman-Sigal<\/strong><\/p>\n Analysis: It likely won\u2019t be any one of these because we\u2019re in a \u201cchanging of the guard\u201d moment. The most likely heir to Nadler for the past two decades was Stringer. But with two sons, aged 12 and 13, and a thriving 15-year marriage to Elyse Buxbaum, well-placed sources tell me that if Scott wants 15 more years of marital bliss, he\u2019ll skip this race and not spend all his weekdays away from his young family in Washington, D.C. The mention in the Times piece that Nadler likes Lasher is a giveaway that Stringer doesn\u2019t want to run for Congress.<\/p>\n Maloney, who lost to Nadler in a bruising primary battle two years ago, isn\u2019t likely at her age to try to resurrect her distinguished career, especially now that her daughter, Virginia, is following in her footsteps as the City Council member representing the Upper East Side starting next year.<\/p>\n Brewer probably has too much clout on the West Side and in the City Council to risk a run for Congress. Besides, she hates living anywhere but the Upper West Side. And Hoylman-Sigal hasn\u2019t even measured the drapes for his new office at Manhattan Borough Hall.<\/p>\n The Celebrity Superstars: Jack Schlossberg, Chelsea Clinton, Lina Khan, Cynthia Nixon<\/strong><\/p>\n As New York magazine pointed out recently, these past few years have been the first period in almost seven decades that no one from the Kennedy clan was roaming the halls of Congress. Despite his growing social media following and quirky personality, it\u2019s unlikely that Schlossberg \u2013 Caroline Kennedy\u2019s son and John F. Kennedy\u2019s grandson \u2013 will break that streak.<\/p>\n Chelsea Clinton could make a compelling candidate, but the Clinton Dynasty in politics is likely one generation and done.<\/p>\n Lina Khan, who served as chair of the Federal Trade Commission in the Biden administration, could become a darling of New York\u2019s ascendant left wing. So could Cynthia Nixon, the actor and DSA activist who was crushed by Cuomo in the governor\u2019s race seven years ago. Of the two, Khan seems more likely to run, hoping that the enthusiasm for Zohran Mamdani\u2019s campaign will carry her to Congress. But Khan, who currently lives just outside the district, may not have enough local roots to pull off this carpet-bagging stunt.<\/p>\n The Young Turks: Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, Erik Bottcher<\/strong><\/p>\n Lasher certainly has the inside lane here with a likely Nadler endorsement, which means that almost all the West Side electeds will fall in line. And the district\u2019s votes are more heavily West Side than East Side.<\/p>\n Bores, who represents the East Side, is a rising star in Albany with impressive tech chops. He certainly has a shot, especially if he can consolidate support on the East Side (he better hope Council Member Julie Menin doesn\u2019t run), but this may not be his turn.\u00a0<\/p>\n Bottcher is charming and has distinguished himself as a likable gadfly in the City Council. He might be able to mobilize Manhattan\u2019s powerful gay community behind him, but it\u2019s not clear he has the fundraising talent or institutional support to pull off a victory here against the Upper West Side machine.<\/p>\n The Overlooked: Julie Menin, Rebecca Seawright, Liz Krueger, Linda Rosenthal<\/strong><\/p>\n Julie Menin seems to be the odds-on favorite to be next City Council Speaker, and a run for Congress could detract from that insider campaign. Right now, she\u2019s focused on appealing to 25 of her colleagues, not Manhattan voters.<\/p>\n Rebecca Seawright, Linda Rosenthal and Liz Krueger all strike me as people who are happy with their powerful perches in the state Legislature. They would be unlikely to risk that for a difficult, long-shot campaign to be a backbencher in D.C. for the next decade of their careers. If Rosenthal is tired of the Assembly, she\u2019ll probably just run for the Upper West Side Senate seat that Hoylman-Sigal is vacating \u2013 not for Congress.<\/p>\n Nadler has had an extremely impressive political career, stretching back to 1976 when he was first elected to the Assembly. He was on the right side \u2013 and ahead of the curve \u2013 on so many civil rights issues, including gay marriage, LGBTQ rights, abortion rights and protecting immigrants in New York and throughout the country.<\/p>\n He also protected his district and our country by taking some tough stands against developers and GOP adversaries: he was a thorn to Donald Trump the builder for decades, opposing the Riverside Side South\/Trump City project which was eventually scaled back. He took on special prosecutor Kenneth Starr in the Clinton impeachment imbroglio and he was an outspoken Jewish leader supporting President Barack Obama\u2019s nuclear deal with Iran.<\/p>\n Less known is that Nadler was also a transportation trailblazer who has spent his entire career trumpeting the need for more light rail and other alternative sources of mass transportation.<\/p>\n For the next 16 months, Nadler will no doubt continue fighting for his district and pushing back against the excesses of the Trump administration, while at the same time taking a well-deserved victory lap.<\/p>\n His early announcement gives the field plenty of time to develop for 2026 and should serve as a model to all those seventy- and eighty-something\u2019s in DC who should realize that Succession should be more then just a hit television show. An orderly passing of the torch to the next generation is vital for the future of our city and our country.<\/p>\n It\u2019s too bad Joe Biden didn\u2019t have the same epiphany that Nadler had.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Politics, like life, goes in cycles. 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