{"id":196970,"date":"2025-09-03T13:56:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T13:56:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/196970\/"},"modified":"2025-09-03T13:56:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T13:56:16","slug":"late-struggles-the-norm-troubling-starts-worry-meter-mannys-battery-san-diego-union-tribune","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/196970\/","title":{"rendered":"Late struggles the norm; troubling starts; worry meter; Manny\u2019s battery \u2013 San Diego Union-Tribune"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning,<\/p>\n

Could this be the beginning of the end?<\/p>\n

Sure, it could be.<\/p>\n

If the Padres continue playing as they have for the past week-and-a-half, it almost certainly will be.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not playing good right now,\u201d Jake Cronenworth said. \u201cWorst stretch of the season we\u2019ve had so far. Just not playing good.\u201d<\/p>\n

My game story (here<\/a>) from last night\u2019s 6-2 loss to the Orioles, the Padres\u2019 seventh loss in nine games, explored the biggest reasons(s) behind the skid. And we will discuss that some more here later.<\/p>\n

First, some perspective on the reality that even the best teams can look really bad near the end of a good season.<\/p>\n

In September 2015, two teams that would meet in that year\u2019s World Series looked nothing like two teams that would meet in that year\u2019s World Series.<\/p>\n

The Mets and Royals had overlapping skids, with the eventual champions going 8-16 from Sept. 4 to 29 while the Mets were 6-11 from Sept. 15 through Oct. 3.<\/p>\n

And, in fact, 17 of the 18 World Series participants since 2015 have endured a losing stretch of at least nine games in late August and\/or September that at the time almost certainly had their fanbases thinking October success was farfetched. And 12 of those 18 teams had those losing skids encompass part of the regular season\u2019s final month.<\/p>\n

Here are some of the noteworthy ones:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

But \u2026<\/p>\n

The deeper issue within the Padres\u2019 2-7 stretch is what the biggest factor in that stretch is.<\/p>\n

Their starting pitching has been abysmal for much of the past 2\u00bd weeks and downright horrible the past week-and-a-half.<\/p>\n

The Padres got five quality starts in a span of six games from Aug. 19 to 24. Those are their only quality starts in their past 18 games. (Two of those were bullpen games, including one on Sunday. That still leaves their actual starters without a quality start over their past seven games.)<\/p>\n

The Padres are the only team in the major leagues without a quality start since Aug. 25. Their starters have a 6.30 ERA in that span, third highest in the majors. Take away reliever David Morgan\u2019s two scoreless innings at the start of Sunday\u2019s game in Minnesota, and that ERA would be 6.75.<\/p>\n

There isn\u2019t much more to dissect on this topic besides what we have been talking about every day for the past several days \u2014 other than to repeat it is a problem now and could be one later.<\/p>\n

In the short term, the truncated starts are taxing the bullpen and putting the offense in holes that are difficult to climb out of.<\/p>\n

My game story addressed the futility of that, as teams that give up the game\u2019s first run lose two-thirds of the time.<\/p>\n

And it is not just the game\u2019s first run for the Padres lately. It is runs.<\/p>\n

They trailed 3-0 after three innings last night. It was the 12th time in the past 15 games the Padres have trailed by multiple runs by the fourth inning.<\/p>\n

In the playoffs, a team with a deep bullpen like the Padres can generally thrive with a starter going five (or even four) strong innings. Strong means not allowing multiple runs.<\/p>\n

The Padres\u2019 starters have to be better.<\/p>\n

Will they?<\/p>\n

The rotation certainly has the names to make that seem possible.<\/p>\n

First off, let\u2019s make it clear that all this talk about poor starts is excepting Nick Pivetta. He is the only Padres starter in the past eight games to last a full five innings. And that was his first time in nine starts not going at least six innings.<\/p>\n

But there are questions about the team\u2019s other three potential postseason starters.<\/p>\n

Michael King has started once since May due first to his nerve impingement and then to knee inflammation. He is expected back in time to make at least four regular starts, which should be a sufficient ramp-up. But there is no way to know for sure how he will do.<\/p>\n

The Padres have been waiting all season for Dylan Cease to get right. Talk has now turned to how to best use him in the playoffs.<\/p>\n

And Yu Darvish is clearly not quite himself yet.<\/p>\n

He was the culprit last night in an odd outing that lasted four innings (plus a walk to start the fifth).<\/p>\n

Darvish got all three of his outs in the first inning via strikeout, including two of them on three pitches apiece. He also gave up a home run on an 0-2 count, hit a batter with an 0-2 pitch, hit another batter with an 0-1 pitch and walked a batter. He gave up two runs in the third, which ended when his fielders worked a relay to throw out a runner trying to take an extra base. His fourth inning ended when catcher Freddy Fermin threw out a would-be base stealer.<\/p>\n

\u201cInconsistent would probably be the word,\u201d Darvish said. \u201cI was able to get a quick strike one, strike two, but I just \u2026 couldn\u2019t find a pitch that I could really command and finish off hitters. So it was a bit of a struggle. \u2026 The games that I can, that I\u2019m able to command well, I\u2019m able to get through the game. But as of now, if I can\u2019t find the right command, if my pitches aren\u2019t coming out right, then I do struggle in a game.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here are the numbers for Cease and Darvish during this 18-game slog:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So, how worried?<\/p>\n

The Padres\u2019 playoff chances have dropped to 98%, according to Fangraphs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That is down from a high of 99.6% on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Their lead over the Mets has been trimmed to one game. And the Reds and Giants are just six games back.<\/p>\n

Still, at this point it would take an epic collapse for the Padres to not be playing in October.<\/p>\n

FanGraphs\u2019 playoff projections go back to 2014. And in that time, no team that had more than a 94.1% chance of making the postseason with 29 games remaining failed to make the postseason.<\/p>\n

The Twins last year had a 94.1% chance at this point in the season and finished as the eighth team in the American League, as they went from 75-64 and with a 5\u00bd-game cushion to 82-80 and four games out of playoff position.<\/p>\n

Since 2014, all but four teams that had at least an 84% chance of making the playoffs with 29 games remaining have done so.<\/p>\n

Here is the current National League playoff picture:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Iron man<\/p>\n

Manny Machado has played every one of his team\u2019s games this season, one of three players in the major leagues to have done so.<\/p>\n

Among his 139 starts are 14 as the Padres\u2019 designated hitter.<\/p>\n

But he has not had a DH day since Aug. 18, which means he has played 14 games in 15 days at third base. That is his third-longest stretch of the season without serving as DH and his longest since mid-May.<\/p>\n

There is no way to tell whether that has anything to do with his hitting .198 with three doubles and one home run over the past 25 games. (His .527 OPS is tied for the fifth-worst of his career over a 25-game span. The four worst all came last April and May while he was working his way back from elbow surgery.)<\/p>\n

But Padres manager Mike Shildt has discussed the idea of a day off with the player the Padres cannot afford to be slumping much longer.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere has been consideration,\u201d Shildt said. \u201cI\u2019ve spoken to him about it. I\u2019m going to trust a guy and, you know, there\u2019s a possibility for that. But Manny is a guy that\u2019s going to post and wants to post. And one thing we haven\u2019t been able to do is get him that DH day with the way we\u2019re configured right now and trying to keep the lineup as strong as possible and as long as possible. And that may have a bearing on it.<\/p>\n

\u201cI talk to him. He\u2019ll say, \u2018My day off is the day off.\u2019 But yeah, it\u2019s in consideration. And you know, I\u2019m gonna continue to talk to him and weigh in on him. \u2026 I don\u2019t think he nor I would (attribute Machado\u2019s struggles to)\u00a0 anything other than the ebbs and flows of the season. But we\u2019ll continue to monitor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not the norm<\/p>\n

Shildt believes the best offense is a good defense. Or something like that.<\/p>\n

After Will Wagner pinch-hit for shortstop Mason McCoy and Ryan O\u2019Hearn pinch-hit for catcher Freddy Fermin in the bottom of the seventh inning, Shildt made some changes.<\/p>\n

O\u2019Hearn stayed in the game to play first base while Jake Cronenworth moved from second to shortstop and Luis Arraez moved from first to second. (Elias D\u00edaz entered the game behind the plate.)<\/p>\n

But that is not an infield alignment Shildt seems inclined to start a game with.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s when we\u2019re down and we\u2019re chasing it, you know?\u201d he said. \u201cI mean, the one thing that I can confidently say is defense is important and we don\u2019t want to \u2014 I\u2019ve done this long enough to see (what happens) when you\u2019re chasing offense for the sacrifice of defense. And if you\u2019re not on top of your game on the mound as much, you need your defense. So it\u2019s an opportunity there to slide Croney over, get Luis to second, keep O\u2019Hearn\u2019s bat in the lineup, but it\u2019s something more that we\u2019ll see when we\u2019re down, because we need to make sure we also field our best defense.<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause, it\u2019s not the sexiest thing that we talk about a lot, and we talk about the lineup construction and all the different things, but (defense) does show up. You know, there\u2019s nine innings of defense \u2014 to catch the baseball and make outs. Outs are important. But good news is we do have some flexibility, and we\u2019ll use it appropriately.\u201d<\/p>\n

Down time<\/p>\n

A Padres reliever has come into a game to protect a lead nine times in a total of 36 appearances over the past nine games. (They have come into a tie game five times.)<\/p>\n

So all those \u201cdown\u201d games means the bulk of the work lately has been done by lower-leverage relievers.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at the workload breakdown over those nine games:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tidbits<\/p>\n