{"id":200131,"date":"2025-09-04T17:48:18","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/200131\/"},"modified":"2025-09-04T17:48:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:48:18","slug":"massachusetts-recession-risk-is-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/200131\/","title":{"rendered":"Massachusetts recession risk is high"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\ud83d\udce3 <a href=\"http:\/\/trendlineswebinarseptember.splashthat.com\/TL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sign up now for the inaugural Trendlines webinar<\/a>, where columnist Larry Edelman and digital producer Dana Gerber will break down President Trump\u2019s pressure campaign on higher education. Tune in on Sept. 30 at noon.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list |  list_unstyled list_counter_reset unordered font_size_18\">\n<li class=\"list_counter_increment flex align_items_base\">A federal judge ruled the Trump administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/harvard-federal-funding\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/harvard-federal-funding\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">unlawfully cut<\/a> nearly $3 billion of Harvard\u2019s research funding. <\/li>\n<li class=\"list_counter_increment flex align_items_base\">Josh Kraft <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/metro\/kraft-campaign-shakeup-keyser-oconnor\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/metro\/kraft-campaign-shakeup-keyser-oconnor\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">parted ways with his top advisers<\/a>, in a major campaign staff shakeup just days before the Boston mayoral primary. <\/li>\n<li class=\"list_counter_increment flex align_items_base\">Nursing homes in Massachusetts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/04\/metro\/nursing-homes-care-profit\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/04\/metro\/nursing-homes-care-profit\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">are being flipped<\/a> in deals that put quick profit ahead of long-term success.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">The last <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/pdf\/empsit.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">US jobs report<\/a> was a shocker. Will the next one, set for release on Friday, deliver another jolt?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">After the July report, the labor market suddenly seemed weaker than previously thought, as employers hit the brakes on hiring. Employment gains for the previous two months were revised sharply lower, and the jobless rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, assessed the data and other indicators and concluded that the US was on \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Markzandi\/status\/1952008077558858194\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\">the precipice of recession<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">In Zandi\u2019s view, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Markzandi\/status\/1959686593276490220\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\">Massachusetts and 20 other states<\/a> are already in or at high risk of a contraction.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">President Trump reacted to the July employment numbers <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/114954846612623858\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">by firing<\/a> the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. He suggested the report had been rigged to make him look bad.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">More likely, his policies are starting to stunt economic growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">Tariffs are cutting into corporate profits and forcing businesses to delay hiring and other investments until their impact becomes clearer. Restrictive immigration policies are shrinking the workforce. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">With fewer workers, it is harder for the economy to expand.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><b>The local angle:<\/b> The Massachusetts economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter, <a href=\"https:\/\/donahue.umass.edu\/business-groups\/economic-public-policy-research\/massbenchmarks\/benchmarks-bulletin-august-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according to MassBenchmarks<\/a>, an economics journal produced by the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">\u201cWe weren\u2019t in a recession as of July,\u201d said Alan Clayton-Matthews, senior contributing editor at MassBenchmarks. \u201cIs one coming? That\u2019s a different matter.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">Recessions are marked by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/business-cycle-dating\/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a significant decline in economic activity<\/a> \u2014 including employment, industrial output, and personal income and spending \u2014 that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">It\u2019s true that the state\u2019s labor market has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/08\/25\/newsletters\/job-market-fed-interest-rates\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lagged behind many parts of the country<\/a> for some time. That reflects our <a href=\"https:\/\/acrobat.adobe.com\/id\/urn:aaid:sc:US:f166a0ef-00ea-4ce4-bdf8-7087bec21246\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dependence on immigration<\/a> for population and workforce growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">But broader data on wages and spending show the economy continued to expand from April through June.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><b>Up next:<\/b> We\u2019ll get a fresh snapshot of the US job market on Friday, when the August employment report is released. (State numbers will follow in two weeks.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">The consensus among forecasters is that employers added 75,000 jobs last month, little changed from 73,000 in July.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/08\/01\/economy\/us-jobs-report-july\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barring another big revision<\/a>, that would bring the average gain over the past four months to 45,000, compared with an average increase of 123,000 in the first four months of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3 percent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">Zandi, the Moody\u2019s Analytics economist, says we will probably dodge a national recession thanks to economic momentum in big states such as Florida and Texas, as well states that are holding their own, including California and New York. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">But that\u2019s little consolation to struggling states such as Massachusetts and others in the same boat, including the rest of New England, except Vermont, and the Mid-Atlantic states, except Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\u201cThe striking thing (at least to me) is the regional diversity of the economically troubled states,\u201d Zandi said in an email. \u201cThe economic struggles are evident from coast-to-coast. If there is a common denominator among the troubled states it is their older populations and weaker demographics.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><b>Why it matters:<\/b> The labor market isn\u2019t as strong as the current 4.2 percent jobless rate suggests.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">The supply of workers is declining as people leave the workforce \u2014 many due to deportations or the fear of being deported. That holds down unemployment because those people aren\u2019t counted anymore.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">At the same time, hiring demand has cooled. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of unemployed people in July <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/\">exceeded US job openings<\/a> for the first time in four years. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\u201cI believe that any decline in labor supply is only masking weakening demand in the labor market. Whether or not supply is down, weakening demand is not good,\u201d Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/waller20250828a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said in a speech<\/a> late last month. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><b>A closer look: <\/b>Waller highlighted other data that \u201csupport the idea that labor demand may be on the edge of a sharp decline.\u201d <\/p>\n<ul class=\"list |  list_unstyled list_counter_reset unordered font_size_18\">\n<li class=\"list_counter_increment flex align_items_base\">Raises for people switching to new jobs are lower than for workers staying in the same job, the opposite of what usually happens in a strong labor market.<\/li>\n<li class=\"list_counter_increment flex align_items_base\">Teen joblessness has risen significantly in 2025, back to<b> <\/b>levels seen in the mid-2010s, pointing to reduced demand for entry-level workers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">Waller, a Trump appointee, was one of two governors who voted against <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/federal-reserve-powell-trump-rates-99d90bab1ba2faa0fc5d4a6106125da7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">holding interest rates steady<\/a> at the Fed\u2019s most recent meeting in July. He argues the central bank should be cutting rates now to prop up the job market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><b>Final thought: <\/b>A recession isn\u2019t inevitable \u2014 or even probable.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg put recession odds over the next year at 30 percent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">But the outlook for Massachusetts is dimmer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">Employers will struggle as more workers retire and immigration restrictions curb population growth. Professional business and technical services, biotech, and tech \u2014 key engines of the local economy \u2014 are in a downturn. And the high cost of doing business will limit the state\u2019s ability to attract and retain jobs. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">\u201cThere is a real threat of a recession,\u201d Clayton-Matthews of MassBenchmarks said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">Friday\u2019s job report could signal just how big that threat is.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">\u201cObviously we have a lot of work to do.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\u2014 Bill Belichick, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/sports\/bill-belichick-north-carolina-debut\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/sports\/bill-belichick-north-carolina-debut\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">following a 48-14 drubbing<\/a> in his debut as football coach at the University of North Carolina. <\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f Trump Administration<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2025\/09\/03\/kennedy-cdc-reform-plan-wsj-opinion-article-similar-to-monarez-confidential-memo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2025\/09\/03\/kennedy-cdc-reform-plan-wsj-opinion-article-similar-to-monarez-confidential-memo\/\">Copycat<\/a>: After ousting Susan Monarez, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pitched ideas to overhaul the agency that mirrored hers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/science\/what-remains-of-offshore-wind-after-trump-halts-revolution\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/science\/what-remains-of-offshore-wind-after-trump-halts-revolution\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">Ill wind<\/a>: Projects blocked. Work stopped. Funds canceled. What\u2019s left of offshore power?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/nation\/trump-administration-tariffs-supreme-court\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/nation\/trump-administration-tariffs-supreme-court\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">Tariff appeal<\/a>: The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to rule quickly on whether the president has the power to impose sweeping import taxes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/commonwealth-kitchen-food-incubator\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/commonwealth-kitchen-food-incubator\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">Food fight<\/a>: CommonWealth Kitchen, the much-praised food startup hub in Dorchester, has been hit by toxic workplace allegations. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/shannon-obrien-cannabis-commission\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/shannon-obrien-cannabis-commission\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">Another hit<\/a>: State Treasurer Deborah Goldberg plans to appeal a judge\u2019s decision to reinstate Shannon O\u2019Brien as head of the Cannabis Control Commission, a move that could prolong the fight over the foundering regulatory agency.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/gas-pipeline-expansion-enbridge\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/03\/business\/gas-pipeline-expansion-enbridge\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">Supply boost<\/a>: Enbridge launched a $300 million expansion of its Algonquin natural gas pipeline in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with Eversource as its first customer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">1,135<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\u2014 The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/investing\/what-we-know-about-americas-billionaires-1-135-and-counting-98d22268?st=M7Si1d&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/investing\/what-we-know-about-americas-billionaires-1-135-and-counting-98d22268?st=M7Si1d&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\">number of billionaires in the US<\/a> in 2024, according to data from Altrata, a wealth intelligence firm. Their collective wealth: about $5.7 trillion.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" id=\"img-KUN2TYZHPPC3WCDXFDFMKTOHGY-image\" alt=\"One of Amtrak&#x2019;s NextGen Acela trains.\" class=\"height_a width_full invisible width_full--mobile width_full--tablet-only\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/KUN2TYZHPPC3WCDXFDFMKTOHGY.JPG\"  loading=\"lazy\"\/>One of Amtrak\u2019s NextGen Acela trains.Amtrak<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">You may have heard that Amtrak has upped its game with new high-speed trains along the Northeast Corridor, the heavily traveled route connecting Boston with New York and Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">Development of the NextGen Acela took 10 years and $2.35 billion to complete. Was it worth it? Yes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/02\/lifestyle\/acela-nextgen-review\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/02\/lifestyle\/acela-nextgen-review\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">says Globe travel writer Christopher Muther<\/a>, even if he experienced delays on his virgin voyage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\u201cThe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/08\/07\/metro\/amtrak-announces-fleet-high-speed-rail-trains-washington-boston-will-start-late-august\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/08\/07\/metro\/amtrak-announces-fleet-high-speed-rail-trains-washington-boston-will-start-late-august\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">NextGen Acela<\/a> is a beautiful train. Sleek, chock-a-block with thoughtful details, and a huge improvement over the 25-year-old previous generation that was decidedly showing its age,\u201c Muther writes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0\">Among the improvements: large panoramic windows, a quieter ride, a dedicated USB port and power outlet for each seat, and fast 5G Wi-Fi. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">One thing the new Acela is not: faster. At least for now. Its top speed is 160 miles per hour, 10 mph faster than the old Acela. But Muther explains that the new train can\u2019t always cruise at max speed because of the 100-year-old tracks, congestion, tunnels, and outdated signals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">Does anyone here remember the Metroliner? (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=qHup0fuD9BU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=qHup0fuD9BU\">Nostalgia<\/a> is a big part of being a railfan.) That was the \u201chigh-speed\u201d service \u2014 eventually around 120 mph \u2014 on the Northeast Corridor from 1969 to 2000, when Acela entered the station. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\ud83d\udcbb On this date in 1998, Google was founded by Stanford University PhD students Sergey Brin and Larry Page.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\ud83d\udc4b Thanks for reading. Trendlines will be back on Monday. <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph | gutter_20_0 text_align_left\">\u270d\ud83c\udffc If someone sent you this newsletter, you can <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/newsletters\/trendlines\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/newsletters\/trendlines\/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter\">sign up for your own copy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagline | font_primary inline_block  margin_top_32\">Larry Edelman can be reached at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2025\/09\/04\/newsletters\/massachusetts-recession-forecast\/mailto:larry.edelman@globe.com\" class=\"\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:inherit;letter-spacing:.5px\" rel=\"noopener\">larry.edelman@globe.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udce3 Sign up now for the inaugural Trendlines webinar, where columnist Larry Edelman and digital producer Dana Gerber&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":200132,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,2295,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-200131","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-newsletter","11":"tag-united-states","12":"tag-unitedstates","13":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115147289632197515","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=200131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/200132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=200131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=200131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=200131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}