{"id":202931,"date":"2025-09-05T18:03:15","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T18:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/202931\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T18:03:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T18:03:15","slug":"shocking-jobs-report-sends-mortgage-rates-falling-to-new-yearly-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/202931\/","title":{"rendered":"Shocking jobs report sends mortgage rates falling to new yearly lows"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest jobs report was yet another disappointing outcome for the Fed, and one of the negative revisions revealed a decline in the labor market<\/a> in one of the reports. What does that tell us? It tells us that the Fed is old and slow.<\/p>\n

The premise since 2022 has been that the Fed will remain as restrictive<\/a> as possible until the labor market shows significant weakness. At every Federal Reserve meeting, they have stated that they are modestly restrictive. After today\u2019s jobs report, they now have a chance to reconsider their stance. Hopefully, this will serve as a wake-up call for them. <\/p>\n

While jobless claims have risen and the unemployment rate is skyrocketing, we have faced labor issues for some time that were purposely disregarded. Changes are needed.<\/p>\n

Details from the jobs report <\/p>\n

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/strong> (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, also didn\u2019t change much in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
Here is a chart of the unemployment rate. It is still low historically, but if it weren\u2019t for the labor force growth slowing down, this data line would be higher today.<\/p>\n

In today\u2019s episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast<\/a>, Sarah Wheeler and I discussed two sectors that we are concerned about in recent months: manufacturing and residential construction. Losing jobs in both areas simultaneously is a troubling sign and cannot simply be attributed to the slowing population growth this year. We emphasized this point in our discussion.<\/p>\n

As we can see in today\u2019s report, we are losing jobs in construction<\/a> and manufacturing, even with the AI Data center boom.<\/p>\n

While residential construction labor isn\u2019t collapsing, it is getting softer. I often say the Fed tends to overlook this sector\u2019s importance until a recession occurs, giving them time to move away from their moderately restrictive policy.<\/p>\n

Other construction labor sectors are rolling over already, as we can see below.<\/p>\n

As you can imagine, the 10-year yield fell like a waterfall today, currently at 4.08%, breaking a key level that has held up for many months outside the drama around Godzilla tariffs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Stay focused on economic and labor data <\/p>\n

Let\u2019s keep it simple, everyone: the focus is on labor rather than inflation. Many people thought interest rates couldn\u2019t decrease due to rising inflation rates, but given everything that has happened in 2025, I still see things clearly. My forecast for the 10-year yield range is between 4.70% and 3.80%, while mortgage rates are expected to fall between 7.25% and 5.75%. We haven\u2019t significantly broken above or below these levels yet. Therefore, we should stay focused on economic and labor data when considering interest rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The latest jobs report was yet another disappointing outcome for the Fed, and one of the negative revisions…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":202932,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,1597,17684,50846,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-202931","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-federal-reserve","11":"tag-hwmember","12":"tag-jobs-report","13":"tag-united-states","14":"tag-unitedstates","15":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115153011065062280","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202931\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/202932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}