{"id":203214,"date":"2025-09-05T20:40:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T20:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/203214\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T20:40:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T20:40:13","slug":"careful-what-you-wish-for-after-soft-jobs-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/203214\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Careful what you wish for’ after soft jobs data"},"content":{"rendered":"

(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video update from Mike above.) A bit of a “be careful what you wish for” effect after softer-than-forecast jobs data solidifies the case for a Fed rate cut the week after next, but perhaps adds more weight than anticipated to the odds of a broader economic stall-out. We got the “mission accomplished” reflex rally but it lasted like a half-hour. A market already priced for an array of good tidings \u2014 rate cuts into a steady expansion, generous credit conditions, brisk earnings growth and a runaway AI capex boom \u2014 had a modest mid-morning rethink that undercut the bank stocks and consumer cyclicals that had been riding high into the payroll report. My line for weeks has been that the market wants a rate cut but doesn’t want to need one. The “need” remains debatable, with a vigorous two-sided debate on whether minimal job gains reflect reduced labor availability and corporate productivity gains, or if the pre-recessionary angle of payroll deceleration is foreshadowing broader economic weakness. BofA’s economists capitulating on its “no cuts” call reflects some wavering of the “economic acceleration” thesis. And the Treasury rally might give investors’ pause. Equity bulls likely don’t want the 10-year yield to fall much more than the current slide to 4.08%. The only times we’ve been below 4% over the past three years has been when perceived recession risk has been elevated. Same with crude prices threatening to break down . With all that said, it’s been a fairly nuanced market reaction: market breadth is about 50\/50 and rate-sensitive stuff is trying to hold up. Small caps and rate-sensitive housing stocks are hanging tough. NVDA and MSFT and some other big, year-to-date AI winners added outsized pressure to the S & P 500 and Nasdaq, offsetting Broadcom ‘s surge, suggesting the AI theme might no longer lift all boats at once. For context entering the weekend: We’re coming off a record high, the S & P hasn’t had more than a 3% pullback in four months, valuations are full but have been up here most of the year, sentiment is perhaps a bit complacent but surely not at optimistic extremes, seasonal headwinds are blowing but also well-known, corporate credit conditions are generous and the AI theme is, for now, still underwriting earnings growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":203215,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[133,148,64,81,112131,112130,3346,135,14229,147,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-203214","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-breaking-news-markets","9":"tag-broadcom-inc","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-business-news","12":"tag-consumer-discretionary-select-sector-spdr-fund","13":"tag-invesco-kbw-bank-etf-portfolio","14":"tag-investment-strategy","15":"tag-markets","16":"tag-microsoft-corp","17":"tag-nvidia-corp","18":"tag-united-states","19":"tag-unitedstates","20":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115153628317156508","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/203215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}