{"id":204416,"date":"2025-09-06T07:32:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-06T07:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/204416\/"},"modified":"2025-09-06T07:32:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T07:32:11","slug":"eric-adams-chances-of-winning-nyc-mayoral-race-betting-odds-show","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/204416\/","title":{"rendered":"Eric Adams’ Chances of Winning NYC Mayoral Race, Betting Odds Show"},"content":{"rendered":"

New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ chances of getting reelected have slipped to their lowest point since April with online betting platform Polymarket.<\/p>\n

Newsweek reached out to Adams’ campaign via email Friday night for comment.<\/p>\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n

The combination of polling and wagering data has amplified debate over whether trailing candidates should exit to consolidate anti-Zohran Mamdani votes. Political scientists and campaign strategists say a narrower field could materially change head-to-head dynamics, but market odds and multiple polls suggest Mamdani, a Democratic New York state assemblyman, leads a fractured field.<\/p>\n

Market-based probabilities and public-opinion polls provide different but complementary signals about an election.<\/p>\n

Polls show Mamdani<\/a> with pluralities in multi-candidate matchups, raising strategic pressure on lower-performing candidates to withdraw and consolidate the anti-front-runner vote.<\/p>\n

What To Know<\/p>\n

According to Polymarket<\/a> around 9 p.m. ET Friday, Adams’ chances of winning are 1.4 percent. The mayor slipped to 1.1 percent on Friday around 8 a.m., matching his lowest since the end of April, when Polymarket began tracking the race.<\/p>\n

Adams’ highest odds were reached in July, with 26.4 percent, the platform shows.<\/p>\n

Mamdani’s chances are 83.4 percent, according to the platform. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo<\/a>‘s odds are at 12.9 percent and Republican<\/a> candidate Curtis Sliwa has 0.9 percent.<\/p>\n

In a news conference on Friday, Adams announced his intent to stay in the race for mayor amid reports that the Trump administration was considering offering him a position, according to The New York Times.<\/p>\n

“Andrew Cuomo is a snake and a liar, I am in this race, and I am the only one that can beat Mamdani,” Adams said in the news conference<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Recent polling has shown Mamdani as the clear front-runner in the field, but the race gets closer when he’s in a three-way contest with Cuomo and Sliwa.<\/p>\n

In an interview with CNN’s Abby Phillip Friday night, Mamdani, when asked why he thought Adams did not drop out, said he could not pinpoint a reason but noted that there has “been a lot of noise these last … few weeks.”<\/p>\n

When also asked if he’s confident in winning a potential head-to-head race against Cuomo, Mamdani answered “absolutely.”<\/p>\n

\"Eric
\nNew York City Mayor Eric Adams visits ‘Mornings With Maria’ with host Cheryl Casone at Fox Business Network Studios on July 8 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin\/Getty Images)
\nNew York City Mayor Eric Adams visits ‘Mornings With Maria’ with host Cheryl Casone at Fox Business Network Studios on July 8 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin\/Getty Images)
\n What People Are Saying<\/p>\n

Political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek via text message on Friday that Adams’<\/strong> “decision to remain in the mayoral race, even as polls and betting markets show him far behind frontrunner Mamdani with odds as low as 1 to 6% on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, speaks to his confidence in name recognition and centrist appeal amid a crowded field.<\/p>\n

“Running as an independent after opting out of the Democratic primary, Adams is betting on splitting the anti-Mamdani vote, but recent surveys indicate Mamdani leading with strong support from progressives while Cuomo holds second place.<\/p>\n

“This persistence could indeed be a win for Mamdani, as it fragments opposition from moderates and independents, potentially diluting challenges from figures like Cuomo and making a unified anti-progressive front less likely in a ranked-choice system.”<\/p>\n

What Happens Next<\/p>\n

The general election is set for November 4, and analysts say the mayoral outcome could boil down to decisions by independent or third-party candidates\u2014like Adams and Cuomo\u2014to stay in the race or exit.<\/p>\n

Update 9\/5\/25, 10:24 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ chances of getting reelected have slipped to their lowest point since April…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":204417,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5122],"tags":[5229,5297,17530,112736,8988,5289,12176,405,403,5226,5225,5228,5227,67,586,132,5230,68,2969,5301],"class_list":{"0":"post-204416","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-york","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-andrew-cuomo","10":"tag-betting","11":"tag-betting-odds","12":"tag-election","13":"tag-eric-adams","14":"tag-mayor","15":"tag-new-york","16":"tag-new-york-city","17":"tag-newyork","18":"tag-newyorkcity","19":"tag-ny","20":"tag-nyc","21":"tag-united-states","22":"tag-united-states-of-america","23":"tag-unitedstates","24":"tag-unitedstatesofamerica","25":"tag-us","26":"tag-usa","27":"tag-zohran-mamdani"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115156192049339353","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=204416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204416\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/204417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=204416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=204416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=204416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}